Abstract
Despite the rapid development of risk analysis, there is a relative absence of risk criteria for dams in developing countries recently, which restrained the practical application of the research results. This paper proposes guidelines for establishing risk criteria of dams in developing countries in considering the coordination of social, economic and engineering factors, then establishes a method of targeted analysis and demonstrates relevant parameters selected according to the ALARP principle and F-N curves, using China as an example. Different individual life risk criteria are established based on different safety levels for existing dams and newly built dams. Social life risk criteria and economic risk criteria are established on the basis of the different safety levels of all size reservoirs, the seriousness of the consequences of accidents, and the acceptability of social risks. The process of establishing risk criteria of dams and the analysis of the parameters demonstrated in this paper are meaningful to provide a reference and promote the required level of management for developing countries.
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The support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51379192, 51679222) is gratefully acknowledged.
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Ge, W., Li, Z., Liang, R.Y. et al. Methodology for Establishing Risk Criteria for Dams in Developing Countries, Case Study of China. Water Resour Manage 31, 4063–4074 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1728-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1728-0