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Precipitation Analysis and the Influence of the El Niño Phenomenon on the Transboundary Basin of the Madeira River

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Abstract

The current paper aims at analyzing the behavior of monthly precipitation in the Brazilian and Bolivian parts of the basin of the Madeira river, one of the most important sub-basins of the Amazon basin. Both parts account for 93 % of its total, and studies on this topic are lacking. The research was based on data from 41 rainfall stations considering a historic series from 1978 to 1998, which encompasses two of the largest El Niño events (1982–1983 and 1997–1998), hence its influence on the precipitation of the region was assessed as well. To study precipitation behavior, rainfall was regionalized using data clustering methods (Ward and K-means), with the basin being divided into five regions of homogeneous rainfall. Both methods were applied to the regions and showed similar results, providing a higher reliability for the clusters obtained. The results of the analysis show the homogeneous regions of the basin, the spatial variability of precipitation, seasonality and the influence of the phenomenon on the region.

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Notes

  1. Rainfall model which employs an information system with data from rainfall stations worldwide, except for Antarctica. In addition to rainfall data, the method considered the availability of the existing relief. Available for free at www.worldclim.org (Hjimans et al. 2005).

  2. In the clustering algorithms, only the precipitation for all rain gauges (in mm) was taken into account, but the authors considered the characteristics of the relief for the final evaluation and analysis of clusters.

  3. Validation metrics (Pakhira et al. 2004).

  4. Periods in which the El Niño phenomenon started and ended, according to the criteria of Trenberth (1997).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Cidade Universtária, Bloco B, sala I-206, C.P. 68506-CEP: 21941-972, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Claudia Daza Andrade & José Paulo Soares de Azevedo

  2. Energy Planning Program (PPE), Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Cidade Universitária, Bloco C, Sala C-211, C.P: 68565, CEP 21945-970, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Marcos Aurélio V. Freitas & Leandro Andrei Beser de Deus

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  1. Claudia Daza Andrade
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  2. José Paulo Soares de Azevedo
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  3. Marcos Aurélio V. Freitas
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  4. Leandro Andrei Beser de Deus
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Correspondence to Leandro Andrei Beser de Deus.

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Andrade, C.D., de Azevedo, J.P.S., Freitas, M.A.V. et al. Precipitation Analysis and the Influence of the El Niño Phenomenon on the Transboundary Basin of the Madeira River. Water Resour Manage 30, 3077–3092 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1332-8

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