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Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in Portugal

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Abstract

This study investigated the frequency of droughts for the period September 1910 to October 2004 in mainland Portugal, based on monthly precipitation data from 144 rain gauges distributed across the country. The drought events were characterized using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) applied to time scales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 consecutive months. Based on the SPI time scale series a regional frequency analysis of drought magnitudes was undertaken using two approaches: annual maximum series (AMS) and partial duration series (PDS). Three spatially defined regions (north, central and south) were identified by cluster analysis and analyzed for homogeneity. Maps of drought magnitude were developed using a kriging technique for several return periods. Similar uniform spatial patterns were found throughout the country using the AMS and PDS approaches. For several SPI time scales a comparison of the observed and estimated maximum magnitude (269-year empirical return period) showed that the AMS combined with the selected probability distribution models (Pearson type III, general Pareto and Kappa) provided better results than the PDS approach combined with the same models. A general and simplified characterization of drought duration revealed a relatively uniform pattern of droughts events across the country.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dpto. Engenharia, ESTIG, Instituto Politécnico de Beja, R. Pedro Soares, 7800-295, Beja, Portugal

    João Filipe Santos

  2. Dpto. Engenharia Civil, SHRH, Instituto Superior Técnico (Lisboa), Avda. Rovisco Pais, 1049–001, Lisboa, Portugal

    Maria Manuela Portela

  3. Dpto. Ciencias Agroforestales, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería, Campus La Rábida, Universidad de Huelva, 21819, Palos de la Frontera, Huelva, Spain

    Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo

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  1. João Filipe Santos
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Correspondence to João Filipe Santos.

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Santos, J.F., Portela, M.M. & Pulido-Calvo, I. Regional Frequency Analysis of Droughts in Portugal. Water Resour Manage 25, 3537–3558 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9869-z

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