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The economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies

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Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate the economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies from 2010 to 2016. To do so, we use the Post-Terrorism Final Economic Damage Simulator—PTFED-Simulator. The PTFED-Simulator assesses the economic damage of terrorism based on ten different indicators: (1) total regional terrorism tension (∆Tt); (2) harmonized anti-terrorist strategy (AT+); (3) war losses from terrorism (−πt); (4) total economic leakage from terrorism (−Ψt); (5) economic desgrowth from terrorism (−δt); (6) military dimension of terrorism (MDt); (7) post-terrorism economic damage (−Πt); (8) post terrorism economic damage evaluation; (9) post-terrorism reconstruction plan (PTRt); and (10) terrorism effect on mega-disk networks mapping. Overall, we seek to evaluate the impact of terrorism on economic performance from a multi-dimensional perspective in both the short run and long run.

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Fig. 1

Source: GTD (2014)

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Source: GTD (2014)

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Source: GTD (2014)

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Notes

  1. We applied a new mathematical framework to explain how a terrorist conflict evolves in different phases. To elaborate the process, we employed supportive mathematical approaches such as complexity along with advanced geometry, calculus i.e. differential equations, and matrix calculus. In addition, the same model proposes a series of multidimensional mathematical propositions and assumptions to generate favorable conditions to conduct systematic simulations of different scenarios and time periods.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Social Security Research Centre (SSRC), Centre of Poverty and Development Studies (CPDS), University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

    Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

  2. Department of Economics, Kohat University of Science & Technology (KUST), Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan

    Alam Khan

  3. Asian Development Bank (ADB), 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Donghyun Park

Authors
  1. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
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  2. Alam Khan
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  3. Donghyun Park
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Correspondence to Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada.

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Ruiz Estrada, M.A., Khan, A. & Park, D. The economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies. Qual Quant 52, 1707–1730 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0549-9

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