Abstract
Recent research on the Himalayan cryosphere has increasingly been focused on climate uncertainty and regional variations, considering features such as glacier recession, lake expansion, outburst floods, and regional hazards. The Bhilangana river basin, located in the central Himalayas, is predominantly characterized by increased elevation-dependent warming and declining seasonal precipitation. Our study shows that high-elevation temperature increased from 2000 to 2022 (0.05 °C/year, p = < 0.05), which resulted in rapid frontal glacier retreat and expansion of glacier lakes. In this study, we used the Google Earth Engine platform to process satellite, reanalysis, and observational data records with descriptive and nonparametric statistical methods. Most of the debris-covered glaciers in this valley exhibited a significant rate of retreat in the last two decades (averaging 31 m per year), although the debris-free Masar glacier retreated even faster (49 m per year). In all, 13 glacier lakes were demarcated and intensively investigated at multi-temporal scales together with variations in area, volume, depth, and discharge at different geomorphologic locations. Maximum changes were detected in the land-terminated lake, which exhibited a significant increase in area (13,398 to 360,878 m2), volume (75,406 to 8,099,363 m3), depth (5.6 to 22.4 m), and discharge (13.3 to 304.6 m/sec) and is considered susceptible to a future flood event. In addition, unsteady flow estimation modeling was employed to describe peak discharge, depth, and velocity associated with regional flood extent over four distinctive simulation scenarios. Maximum peak discharge during the lake outburst is predicted to exceed 4500 m3/sec along with increased maximum water depth in the lower plains (44.2 m) and significantly elevated velocity (> 20 m/sec). Quantification of the regional hazard reveals potentially severe downstream challenges for low-to-medium-scale hydropower stations, local settlements, and road and railway bridges near Devling and Ghuttu villages.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and materials
All datasets produced and utilized during this study are included in the manuscript. However, we used Google Earth Engine codes to achieve the investigations that can be made available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.
References
Ahmed R, Ahmad ST, Wani GF, Mir RA, Ahmed P, Jain SK (2022) High resolution inventory and hazard assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Upper Jhelum Basin, Kashmir Himalaya, India. Geocarto Int 37(25):10681–10712. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2022.2038693
Allen S, Rastner P, Arora M, Huggel C, Stoffel M (2015) Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydro meteorological triggering and topographic predisposition. Landslides 13:1479–1491. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0584-3
Allen SK, Zhang G, Wang W, Yao T, Bolch T (2019) Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using large-scale automated assessment approach. Sci Bull 64:435–445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011
Banerjee A, Singh RB, Mal S (2018) Assessment of landslide hazards in mountainous terrain: a case study of Bhilangana river basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya. Hill Geog 34:51–61
Banerjee A, Chen R, Meadows ME, Singh RB, Mal SM, Sengupta D (2020) An analysis of long-term rainfall trends and variability in the Uttarakhand Himalaya using google earth engine. Remote Sens 12:709. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12040709
Banerjee A, Chen R, Meadows ME, Sengupta D, Pathak S, Xia Z, Mal S (2021) Tracking 21st century climate dynamics of the third pole: an analysis of topo-climate impacts on snow cover in the central Himalaya using google earth engine. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 103:102490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2021.102490
Banerjee A, Kang S, Meadows ME, Xia Z, Sengupta D, Kumar V (2023) Quantifying climate variability and regional anthropogenic influence on vegetation dynamics in northwest India. Environ Res 234:116541. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2023.116541
Bhambri R, Bolch T (2009) Glacier mapping: a review with special reference to the Indian Himalayas. Progress Phys Geogr 33(5):672–704. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133309348112
Bhambri R, Bolch T, Chaujar RK (2011) Mapping of debris-covered glaciers in the Garhwal Himalayas using ASTER DEMs and thermal data. Int J Remote Sens 32:8095–8119. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2010.532821
Bhambri R, Bolch T, Kawishwar P, Dobhal DP, Srivastava D, Pratap B (2013) Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram. Cryosphere 7(5):1385–1398. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1385-2013
Bhambri R, Sain K, Chand P, Srivastava D, Tiwari SK, Yadav S (2023a) Frontal changes of Gangotri glacier, Garhwal Himalaya, between 1935 and 2022. J Geol Soc India 99:169–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12594-023-2283-3
Bhambri R, Schmidt S, Chand P, Nusser M, Haritashya U, Sain K, Tiwari SK, Yadav JS (2023b) Heterogeneity in glacier thinning and slowdown of ice movement in the Garhwal Himalaya. India Sci Total Environ 875:162625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162625
Bolch T, Menounos B, Wheate R (2010) Landsat-based inventory of glaciers in western Canada, 1985–2005. Remote Sens Environ 1141:127–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2009.08.015
Bolch T, Peters J, Yegorov A, Pradhan B, Buchroithner M, Blagoveshchensky (2011) Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan. Nat Hazards 59:1691–1714. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9860-2
Bolch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb A, Huggel C, Paul F, Cogley JG, Frey H, Kargel JS, Fujita K, Scheel M, Bajracharya S, Stoffel M (2012) The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science 336(6079):310–314. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215828
Braun MH, Malz P, Sommer C, Barahona DF, Sauter T, Casassa G, Soruco A, Skvarca P, Seehaus TC (2019) Constraining glacier elevation and mass changes in South America. Nat Clim Change 9:130–136. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0375-7
Brun F, Berthier E, Wagnon P, Kääb A, Treichler D (2017) A spatially resolved estimate of high mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016. Nat Geosci 10:668–673. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2999
Brun F, Wagnon P, Berthier E, Jomelli V, Maharjan SB, Shrestha F, Kraaijenbrink PDA (2019) Heterogeneous influence of glacier morphology on the mass balance variability in high mountain Asia. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 124:1331–1345. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004838
Chen P, Kang S, Li C, Hu Z, Tripathee L, Rai M, Pu T, Yin X, Gustafsson O (2023a) Carbonaceous aerosol transport from the indo-gangetic plain to the himalayas: carbon isotope evidence and light absorption characteristics. Geosci Front 14:101516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2022.101516
Chen W, Yao T, Zhang G, Woolway RI, Yang W, Xu F, Zhou T (2023) Glacier surface heatwaves over the Tibetan plateau. Geophys Res Lett 50(6):e2022GL101115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101115
Cook SJ, Quincey DJ (2015) Estimating the volume of alpine glacial lakes. Earth Surf Dyn 3:559–575. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-559-2015
Cui T, Li Y, Yang L, Nan Y, Li K, Tudaji M, Hu H, Long D, Shahid M, Mubeen A, He Z, Yong B, Lu H, Li C, Ni G, Hu C, Tian F (2023) Non-monotonic changes in Asian water towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels. Nat Commun 14:1176. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36804-6
Debnath M, Sharma MC, Syiemlieh J (2019) Glacier dynamics in Changme Khangpu basin, Sikkim Himalaya, India, between 1975 and 2016. Geosci 9:259. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060259
Dimri AP, Palazzi E, Daloz AS (2022) Elevation dependent precipitation and temperature changes over Indian Himalayan region. Clim Dyn 59:1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06113-z
Dobhal DP, Pratap B, Bhambri R, Mehta M (2021) Mass balance and morphological changes of Dokriani Glacier (1992–2013), Garhwal Himalaya, India. Quat Sci Adv. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qsa.2021.100033
Guo W, Liu S, Wei J, Bao W (2013) The 2008/09 surge of central Yulinchuan glacier, northern Tibetan plateau, as monitored by remote sensing. Ann Glaciol 54(63):299–310. https://doi.org/10.3189/2013AoG63A495
Guo W, Liu S, Xu J, WuShangguan LD, Jiang Z (2015) The second Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and results. J Glacio 61(226):357–372. https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J209
Huang L, Hock R, Li X, Bolch T, Yang K, Wang N, Yao T, Zhou J, Dou C, Li Z (2022) Winter accumulation drives the spatial variations in glacier mass balance in high mountain Asia. Sci Bull 67(19):1967–1970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2022.08.019
Huggel C, Kaab A, Haeberli W, Teysseire P, Paul F (2002) Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: a case study in the Swiss Alps. Can Geotech J 39:316–330. https://doi.org/10.1139/t01-099
Immerzeel WW, Lutz AF, Andrade M, Bahl A, Beimans H, Bolch T, Hyde S, Brumby S, Davis BJ, Elmore AC, Feng M, Fernandez A, Hartiashya U, Kargel JS, Koppes M, Kraaijenbrink PDA, Kulkarni AV, Mayerwski P, Nepan S, Pacheco P, Painter TH, Pellicciotti F, Rajaram H, Rupper S, Sinisalo A, Shrestha AB, Viviroli D, Wada Y, Xiao C, Yao T, Baillie EM (2020) Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers. Nature 577:364–369. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y
Khan G, Ali S, Xiangke X, Qureshi JK, Ali M, Karim I (2021) Expansion of Shishper Glacier lake and recent glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:20290–20298. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11929-z
Khanal NR, Mool PK, Shrestha AB, Rasul G, Ghimire PK, Shrestha RB, Joshi SP (2015) A comprehensive approach and methods for glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment, with examples from Nepal and the transboundary area. Int J Water Resour Dev 31:219–237. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2014.994116
King O, Ghuffar S, Bhattacharya A, Yao R, Yao T, Bolch T (2023) Glaciological and climatological drivers of heterogeneous glacier mass loss in the Tanggula Shan (Central-Eastern Tibetan Plateau), since the 1960s. J Glaciol. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.5
Kraaijenbrink PDA, Bierkens MFP, Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW (2017) Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia’s glaciers. Nature 549:257–260. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878
Kraaijenbrink PDA, Stigter EE, Yao T, Immerzeel WW (2021) Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply. Nat Clim Chang 11:591–597. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01074-x
Liu W, Mayer C, Wang X, Nie Y, Wu K, Wei J, Liu S (2020) Interannual flow dynamics driven by frontal retreat of a lake-terminating glacier in the Chinese Central Himalaya. Earth Planet Sci Lett 546:116450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2020.116450
Lund J, Forster RR, Jameel Y, Rupper SB, Deeb EJ, Dars GH (2023) Constraining mountain streamflow constituents by integrating citizen scientist acquired geochemical samples and Sentinel-1 SAR wet snow time-series for the Shimshal catchment in the Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan. Water Resour Res 59:e2022WR032171. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032171
Mal S, Mehta M, Singh RB, Schickhoff U, Bisht MPS (2019) Recession and morphological changes of the debris-covered Milam glacier in Gori Ganga valley, central Himalaya, India, derived from satellite data. Front Environ Sci 7:42. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00042
Mehta M, Dobhal DP, Pratap B, Verma A, Kumar A, Srivastava D (2013) Glacier changes in upper Tons river basin, Garhwal Himalaya, Uttarakhand, India. Zeitschrift Fur Geomorphol 57:225–244. https://doi.org/10.1127/0372-8854/2012/0095
Miles E, McCarthy M, Dehecq A, Kneib M, Fugger S, Pellicciotti F (2021) Health and sustainability of glaciers in high mountain Asia. Nat Commun 12:2868. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23073-4
Mohammadi A, Karimzadeh S, Jalal SJ, Kamran KV, Shahabi H, Homayouni S, Ansari N (2020) A multi-sensor comparative analysis on the suitability of generated DEM from Sentinel-1 SAR interferometry using statistical and hydrological models. Sensors 20:7214. https://doi.org/10.3390/s20247214
Nainwal HC, Shankar R, Mishra A, Misra S, Pandey A, Shah SS, Chauhan GS, Kumar D (2022) A comprehensive and quantitative assessment of Raunthi Gad flash flood, Rishi Ganga catchment, central Himalaya, Uttarakhand, India. Nat Hazards 114:157–181. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05385-w
Nie Y, Liu O, Liu S (2013) Glacial lake expansion in the central Himalayas by Landsat images, 1990–2010. PLoS ONE 9(3):e92654. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083973
Palazzi E, Hardeberg JV, Provenzale A (2013) Precipitation in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya: observations and future scenarios. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:85–100. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JDO18697
Pandey P, Banerjee D, Ali SN, Khan MAR, Chauhan P, Singh S (2022) Simulation and risk assessment of a possible glacial lake outburst Cood (GLOF) in the Bhilangna Valley, central Himalaya. India J Earth Syst Sci 131:184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-022-01940-y
Patel LK, Sharma P, Laluraj CM, Thamban M, Singh A, Ravindra R (2017) A geospatial analysis of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath glacial lakes in the Chandra Basin, Western Himalaya. Nat Hazards 86:1275–1290. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2743-4
Paul F, Bolch T, Briggs K, Kääb A, McMillan M, McNabb R (2017) Error sources and guidelines for quality assessment of glacier area, elevation change, and velocity products derived from satellite data in the Glaciers_cci project. Remote Sens Environ 203:256–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.08.038
Pepin N, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Baraer M, Caceres EB, Forsythe N, Fowler H, Greenwood G, Hashmi MZ, Liu XD, Miller JR, Ning L, Ohmura A, Palazzi E, Rangwala I, Schöner W, Severskiy I, Shahgedanova M, Wang MB, Williamson SN, Yang DQ (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat Clim Chang 5:424–430. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563
Pepin N, Deng H, Zhang H, Zhang F, Kang S, Yao T (2019) An examination of temperature trends at high elevations across the Tibetan Plateau: The use of MODIS LST to understand patterns of elevation-dependent warming. J Geophys Res Atmos 124:5738–5756. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029798
Pratap B, Dobhal DP, Mehta M, Bhambri R (2015) Influence of debris cover and altitude on glacier surface melting: a case study on Dokriani Glacier, central Himalaya, India. Ann Glaciol 56:9–16. https://doi.org/10.3189/2015AoG70A971
Pratap B, Dobhal DP, Bhambri R, Mehta M, Tewari VC (2016) Four decades of glacier mass balance observations in the Indian Himalaya. Reg Environ Change 16:643–658. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0791-4
Raj BG, Rao VVN, Kumar KV, Diwakar PG (2017) Alarming recession of glaciers in Bhilangna basin, Garhwal Himalaya, from 1965 to 2014 analysed from Corona and Cartosat data. Geomat Nat Hazards Risk 8(2):1424–1439. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2017.1339736
Rashid I, Abdullah T, Romshoo SK (2023) Explaining the natural and anthropogenic factors driving glacier recession in Kashmir Himalaya, India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:29942–29960. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24243-7
Rawat M, Jain SK, Ahmed R, Lohani AK (2023) Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling: a case study of Satluj basin, Western Himalayas, India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:41591–41608. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25134-1
Rinzin S, Zhang G, Sattar A, Wangchuk S, Allen SK, Dunning S, Peng M (2023) GLOF hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya. J Hydro 619:129311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129311
Romshoo SA, Murtaza KO, Shah W, Ramzan T, Ameen U, Bhat MH (2022) Anthropogenic climate change drives melting of glaciers in the Himalaya. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:52732–52751. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19524-0
Romshoo SA, Abdullah T, Murtaza KO, Bhat MH (2023) Direct, geodetic and simulated mass balance studies of the Kolahoi Glacier in the Kashmir Himalaya. India J Hydro 617:129019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129019
Sahu R, Ramsankaran R, Bhambri R, Verma P, Chand P (2023) Evolution of supraglacial lakes from 1990 to 2020 in the Himalaya-Karakoram region using cloud-based google earth engine platform. J Indian Soc Remote Sens. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-023-01773-2
Sarangi C, Qian Y, Rittger K, Leung LR, Chand D, Bormann KJ, Painter TH (2020) Dust dominates high-altitude snow darkening and melt over high-mountain Asia. Nat Clim Chang 10:1045–1051. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00909-3
Sato Y, Fujita K, Inoue H, Sakai A, Karma (2022) Land- to lake-terminating transition triggers dynamic thinning of a Bhutanese glacier. Cryosphere 16:1643–2654. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2643-2022
Sattar A, Goswami A, Kulkarni AV, Emmer A, Haritashya UK, Allen S, Frey H, Huggel C (2021) Future glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya. Geomorphology 388:107783. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107783
Sattar A, Haritashya UK, Kargel JS, Karki A (2022) Transition of a small Himalayan glacier lake outburst flood to a giant transborder flood and debris flow. Sci Rep 12:12421. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16337-6
Sharma AK, Singh SK, KulkarniAjay AV (2013) Glacier inventory in Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra basins of the Himalaya. Natl Acad Sci Lett 36(5):497–505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40009-013-0167-6
Sharma RK, Pradhan P, Sharma NP, Shrestha DG (2018) Remote sensing and in situ-based assessment of rapidly growing South Lhonak glacial lake in eastern Himalaya, India. Nat Hazards 93:393–409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3305-0
Shugar DH, BurrHaritashya AUK, Strattman K (2020) Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990. Nat Clim Chang 10:939–945. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0855-4
Skiles SM, Flanner M, Cook JM, Dumont M, Painter TH (2018) Radiative forcing by light-absorbing particles in snow. Nat Clim Chang 8:964–971. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0296-5
Tahir AA, Chevallier P, Arnaud Y, Ashraf M, Bhatti MT (2015) Snow cover trend and hydrological characteristics of the Astore River basin (Western Himalayas) and its comparison to the Hunza basin (Karakoram region). Sci Total Environ 505:748–761. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.065
Taloor AK, Joshi LM, Kotlia BS, Alam A, Kothyari GC, Kandregula RS, Singh AK, Dumka RK (2021) Tectonic imprints of landscape evolution in the Bhilangana and Mandakini basin, Garhwal Himalaya, India: a geospatial approach. Quarter Int 575–576:21–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2020.07.021
Tang S, Vlug A, Piao S, Li F, Wang T, Krinner G, Li LZX, Wang X, Wu G, Li Y, Zhang Y, Lian X, Yoi T (2023) Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan plateau surface darkening. Nat Commun 14:32. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35672-w
Taylor C, Robinson TR, Dunning S, Carr R, Westoby M (2023) Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally. Nat Commun 14:487. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x
Veh G, Lutzow N, Tamm J, Luna LV, Hugonnet R, Vogel K, Geertsema M, Clague JJ, Korup O (2023) Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900. Nature 614:701–707. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05642-9
Wang W, Yao T, Yang W, Joswiak D, Zhu M (2012) Methods for assessing regional glacial lake variation and hazard in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau: a case study from the Boshula mountain range, China. Environ Earth Sci 67:1441–1450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-012-1589-z
Wang Q, Duan H, Liu N, Du Z, Wang P, Yi B, Xu J, Huang J, Zhang Y, Yao X (2022) Change of moraine-dammed glacial lakes and simulation of glacial lake outburst flood in the Yi’ong Zangbo River basin. Front Earth Sci 10:881285. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.881285
Worni R, Huggel C, Stoffel M (2012) Glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas from an area-wide glacial lake inventory to on-site and modelling based risk assessment of critical glacial lakes. Sci Total Environ 468–469:71–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.11.043
Xie F, Liu S, Gao Y, Zhu Y, Bolch T, Kääb A, Saifullah M (2023) Interdecadal glacier inventories in the Karakoram since the 1990s. Earth Syst Sci Data 15(2):847–867. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-847-2023
Yang J, Kang S, Chen D, Zhao L, Ji Z, Duan K, Den H, Tripathee L, Du W, Rai M, Yan F, Li Y, Gillies RR (2022a) South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian water tower. Nat Commun 13:7360. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35128-1
Yang R, Hock R, Kang S, Guo W, Shangguan D, Jiang Z, Zhang Q (2022) Glacier surface speed variations on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, 2014–2019. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 127:e2022JF006599. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JF006599
Yao T, Bolch T, Chen D, Gao J, Immerzeel W, Piao S, Su F, Lonnie T, Wada Y, Wang L, Wang T, Wu G, Baiqing X, Yang W, Zhang G, Zhao P (2023) The imbalance of the Asian water tower. Nat Rev Earth Environ 3:618–632. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
Zhang G, Yao T, Chen W, Zheng G, Shum CK, Yang K, Piao S, Sheng Y, Yi S, Li J, Reilly OCM, Qi S, Shen SSP, Zhang H, Jia Y (2019) Regional differences of lake evolution across China during 1960s–2015 and its natural and anthropogenic causes. Remote Sen Environ 221:386–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.11.038
Zhang T, Wang W, Gao T, An B (2021) Simulation and assessment of future glacial lake outburst floods in the Poiqu river basin, Central Himalayas. Water 13:1376. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13101376
Zhang T, Wang W, Gao T, An B, Yao T (2022) An integrative method for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Himalayas. Sci Total Environ 806:150442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150442
Zhang G, Bolch T, Yao T, Rounce DR, Chen W, Veh G, King O, Allen SK, Wang M, Wang W (2023) Underestimated mass loss from lake-terminating glaciers in the greater Himalaya. Nat Geosci 16:333–338. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01150-1
Zhao X, Wang X, Wei J, Jiang Z, Zhang Y, Liu S (2020) Spatiotemporal variability of glacier changes and their controlling factors in the Kanchenjunga region, Himalaya based on multi-source remote sensing data from 1975 to 2015. Sci Total Environ 221:386–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.11.038
Zhao H, Su B, Lei H, Zhang T, Xiao C (2023) A new projection for glacier mass and runoff changes over high mountain Asia. Sci Bull 68:43–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2022.12.004
Zheng G, Simon KA, Bao A, Ballesteros-Cánovas JA, Huss M, Zhang G, Li J, Yuam Y, Jiang L, Yu T, Chen W, Stoffel M (2021) Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future third pole deglaciation. Nat Clim Chang 11:411–417. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the India Meteorological Department for providing long-term temperature observed datasets at different elevations. We gratefully acknowledge USGS, NASA, MODIS, NOAA, UCSB, and Climate Hazard Group for providing long-term daily reanalysis datasets. We are also thankful to the Google Earth Engine API platform and developers for providing an ample opportunity to deal with big data and consuming less time. The first author also like to thank Dr. Suraj Mal (CSRD, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India) for supporting partial funding for field visits in 2016 from the HI-NEX project, Dr. Simon Allen (University of Zurich), and Dr. Christopher A Scott (University of Arizona) for fruitful discussions. Moreover, we greatly appreciate the insightful and constructive comments from anonymous reviewers which have helped in improving the scientific quality of the paper.
Funding
This study was funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2019QZKK0605) and Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program (22ZD6FA005). Moreover, the first author (A. Banerjee) would like to acknowledge the Gansu Postdoctoral Science Foundation (E339880202).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
AB contributed to conceptualization, data management, writing original draft, methodology, and formal analysis. SK contributed to review, editing, funding, and supervision. WW contributed to formal analysis. MEM contributed to conceptualization, writing original draft, review and editing, and supervision. WW contributed to review and editing. DS contributed to data curation and review. TZ contributed to methodology and software. All the authors checked and verified the paper.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of Interest
There are no conflicts of interest among the authors. All contributed equally to this manuscript.
Ethical approval
All the research ethics were precisely considered during this study.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Banerjee, A., Kang, S., Guo, W. et al. Glacier retreat and lake outburst floods in the central Himalayan region from 2000 to 2022. Nat Hazards 120, 5485–5508 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06415-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06415-5