Abstract
Hurricane Harvey (2017) resulted in unprecedented damage from flooding in the Houston–Galveston area of the U.S. Gulf Coast. The objective of this study was to better quantify the impacts of compound flooding and to assess the relative contributions of storm surge, pluvial (rainfall) and fluvial (riverine) flooding using Hurricane Harvey as a case study. Here we developed a comprehensive numerical modeling framework to simulate flood extents and levels during Hurricane Harvey using Delft3D Flexible Mesh and validated results against observed water levels, waves, winds, hydrographs and high water marks. Results show that pluvial flooding dominated from widespread heavy rainfall during Harvey, accounting for ~ 60–65% of flooding. Pluvial flooding occurred mostly in watersheds and floodplains in West and South Bays (≤ ~ 1.5 m), upper Galveston Bay (Trinity River Basin, 2–3 m) and Harris County (≤ ~ 2.5 m). River runoff led to local ~ 1–2 m flooding. Significant storm surge levels were simulated northwest of the main Bay (2–2.5 m) and Galveston Bay (1–2 m) and in several watersheds in West/East of Galveston Bay. Wave action caused flood depth and water levels to rise by about 0.3–0.5 m in nearshore areas. Maximum flooding extent developed around August 29, 2017, which compared well to FEMA flood depth data. Nonlinear effects of compound flooding are greater than the sum of individual components. Results from this large-scale coupled modeling analysis provide a useful basis for coastal risk management and hazard mitigation. Our integrated framework is general and can be readily applied to other coastal compound flooding analyses.
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Data availability
All dataset used in this study are publicly available as follow: (a) GEBCO, CRM (Vol. 3, 4, 5) and CUDEM (1/9 and 1/3 arc-sec) bathymetry data are available at https://www.bodc.ac.uk/data/hosted_data_systems/gebco_gridded_bathymetry_data/, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/coastal-relief-model, and https://coast.noaa.gov/htdata/raster2/elevation/, respectively. (b) Wind and surface pressure, and wave inputs (ERA5); best storm track from NHC/JTWC (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/, https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?western-pacific) and era5 reanalysis dataset https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=form. (c) Dataset of precipitation rate: NCEP-Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) hourly time-series products https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds094-1/dataaccess/. (d) NLCD Land Cover dataset for Manning coefficient: https://www.mrlc.gov/data/nlcd-2016-land-cover-conus. (e) Water level validation with NOAA stations: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stations.html?type=Water+Levels. (f) Winds and wave validations with NDBC stations: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/. (g) Hydrographs and high water marks with USGS stations: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis, https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/#2017Harvey. (h) Houston population distribution 2021, ArcGIS Online package: https://ut-austin.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=f2f9f565eac9473f914813aaffae4ef9. (i) FEMA Flood extents by remote sensing: https://disasters.geoplatform.gov/publicdata/NationalDisasters/2017/HurricaneHarvey/Data/RemoteSensing/FEMA_FloodDetectionMaps/.
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Acknowledgements
This research has been supported by Department of Energy, Advanced Scientific Computing Research Program under grant no. DESC0022211. The authors thank all collaborators for sharing data sources and interactive discussion. The authors would also like to thank anonymous reviewers for their valuable feedback during the submission and editing process of this manuscript.
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W. Lee designed the concept and methodology of integrated modeling system and constructed the Delft3D FM model, its validations. And W. Lee analyzed the model results and provided the initial draft of the manuscript. A. Sun contributed to Delft3D-FM model coupling with USGS gage and review, editing and writing processes. B. R. Scanlon and C. Dawson contributed to review and editing. All authors actively contributed to analyzing model outcomes and revisions in writing process and agreed to publish the manuscript.
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Lee, W., Sun, A.Y., Scanlon, B.R. et al. Hindcasting compound pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using Delft3D-FM. Nat Hazards 120, 851–880 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06247-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06247-9