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Influence of maximum water level and coastal inundation on the east coast of India based on future tropical cyclones

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Abstract

The present paper investigates the impact of future scenarios for the past two storms (namely, Vardah and Madi). These two storms had a different intensity over Bay of Bengal, India. The recent study in this region shows that the influence of these Tropical Cyclones (TC) may be severe in future climatic conditions. Different future Representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios are investigated in this study. The combined sea level rise (SLR) and high wind intensity in future scenarios has been investigated in the present study for their influence on maximum water level (MWL), wave climate and coastal inundations. The coupled surge and wave models are used to analyze the influence of SLR and wind intensity for different RCPs. The variations of MWL and inundation extent with increase and decrease in wind increment for different RCPs of the TC’s were reported. Overall, for the Far Future RCP 8.5 scenario, the relative percentage of difference (compared to the current scenario) in MWL has increased by 135% for TC Vardah and 180% for TC Madi. Further, the flood area for TC’s Vardah and Madi will increase by 70% and 95% compared to the current scenario. Finally, the study reveals that the extreme wind intensity of the TC’s in future scenarios plays a significant contribution of up to 50% in coastal inundations.

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by Department of Science & Technology, India, and Grant No. DST/CCP/CoE/141/2018C under SPLICE—Climate Change Programme.

Funding

This work was funded by Department of Science & Technology, India, and Grant No. DST/CCP/CoE/141/2018C under SPLICE—Climate Change Programme. The authors would like to acknowledge the funding support.

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  1. Department of Ocean Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India

    Vyshnavi Yalla, V. Sriram & K. Murali

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Preparation of model, simulations and analysis were performed by VY. The first draft of the manuscript was written by VY and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Yalla, V., Sriram, V. & Murali, K. Influence of maximum water level and coastal inundation on the east coast of India based on future tropical cyclones. Nat Hazards 120, 1263–1294 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06244-y

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