Abstract
Drowning, mainly originating from natural factors, is a significant source of hazards worldwide. In this study, the effects and risk assessment of natural and other hazard factors on unintentional drowning cases (UDI) between 2010 and 2020 in Turkey were investigated for the first time. An average of 935 UDIs recorded each year during the study period. 66.1% of UDIs resulted in a fatality, corresponding to a fatality rate of 0.79 per 100,000 population. The highest UDIs rate, with an average of 30.13 per 100,000 population, was recorded in Bartın province, located on the south coast of the Black Sea. The highest incidence of drowning was seen in teenagers aged 15–19 years and mostly in males. The analysis and previous studies showed that rip currents are the leading cause of natural hazards in drowning incidents on the south coast of the Black Sea. Another significant natural factor in drowning incidents is temporal distribution by months and seasons. The study identified warm seasons as a risk-increasing factor because the number of UDIs was at record levels. According to the number of incidents, almost 80% of victims suffer from drowning during swimming and recreating activities in the surf zone and natural or artificial coastal structures. The study highlights the need for effective prevention strategies that consider such as specific demographic and temporal characteristics, location of incident and type of activity in drowning cases.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data are, however, available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission of Coast Guard Command and Gendarmerie General Command under the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Turkey.
References
Akay A (2019) The effects of natural disasters caused by climate change. Enhancing Required Joint Efforts on Climate Action Project Module 15. https://www.iklimin.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/modul_15_en.pdf. Accessed 29 June 2022
Altinok Y, Ersoy S (2000) Tsunamis observed on and near the Turkish coast. Nat Hazards 21:185–205. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1008155117243
Arozarena I, Houser C, Echeverria AG, Brannstrom C (2015) The rip current hazard in Costa Rica. Nat Hazards 77:753–768. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1626-9
Arun Kumar SVV, Prasad KVSR (2014) Rip current-related fatalities in India: a new predictive risk scale for forecasting rip currents. Nat Hazards 70:313–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0812-x
Barlas B, Beji S (2016) Rip current fatalities on the Black Sea beaches of Istanbul and effects of cultural aspects in shaping the incidents. Nat Hazards 80:811–821. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1998-x
Beji S, Barlas B (2017) Rip currents across the shores of the Black Sea. In: Sezgin M, Bat L, Urkmez D, Arici E, Ozturk B (ed) Black sea marine environment:The Turkish shelf. Turkish Marine Research Foundation (TUDAV), pp 114–131
Brander RW, Bradstreet A, Sherker S, MacMahan J (2011) Responses of swimmers caught in rip currents: perspectives on mitigating the global rip current hazard. Int J Aquat Res Educ 5:11. https://doi.org/10.25035/ijare.05.04.11
Brooks B (2005) Not drowning, waving!: safety management and occupational culture in an Australian commercial fishing port. Saf Sci 43:795–814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2005.02.007
Caldwell N, Houser C, Meyer-Arendt K (2013) Ability of beach users to identify rip currents at Pensacola Beach, Florida. Nat Hazards 68:1041–1056. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0673-3
Carvalho RC, Kennedy DM, Woodroffe CD (2019) A morphology-based drowning risk index for rock platform fishing: a case study from southeastern Australia. Nat Hazards 96:837–856. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03572-w
Castelle B, Brander R, Tellier E et al (2018) Surf zone hazards and injuries on beaches in SW France. Nat Hazards 93:1317–1335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3354-4
Cobbett H, Morrow P, Stables SR (2014) Sink or swim: the advantages of full postmortem examination in cases of drowning. Acad Forensic Pathol 4:214–219. https://doi.org/10.23907/2014.033
Creach A, Pardo S, Guillotreau P, Mercier D (2015) The use of a micro-scale index to identify potential death risk areas due to coastal flood surges: lessons from Storm Xynthia on the French Atlantic coast. Nat Hazards 77:1679–1710. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1669-y
Cummings P, Mueller BA, Quan L (2011) Association between wearing a personal floatation device and death by drowning among recreational boaters: a matched cohort analysis of United States Coast Guard data. Inj Prev 17:156–159. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2010.028688
Di Mauro M, De Bruijn KM, Meloni M (2012) Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk. Nat Hazards 63:1083–1113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0207-4
Dirlik M, Bostancıoğlu B (2015) Child drowning deaths in Aydin province, western Turkey, 2002–2012. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 41:683–688. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00068-015-0493-0
Doelp MB, Puleo JA, Plant NG (2019) Predicting surf zone injuries along the Delaware coast using a Bayesian network. Nat Hazards 98:379–401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03697-y
Endo S, Shimada R, Ishikawa T, Komine T (2022) Can the visualization of rip currents prevent drowning accidents? Consideration of the effect of optimism bias. Nat Hazards 110:2017–2033. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05023-x
Fang Y, Dai L, Jaung MS, Chen X, Yu S, Xianget H (2007) Child drowning deaths in Xiamen city and suburbs, People’s Republic of China, 2001–5. Inj Prev 13:339–343. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2007.016683
Fitton JM, Hansom JD, Rennie AF (2018) A method for modelling coastal erosion risk: the example of Scotland. Nat Hazards 91:931–961. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3164-0
Gensini VA, Ashley WS (2010) An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States. Nat Hazards 54:159–175. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9458-0
Glas H, Jonckheere M, Mandal A et al (2017) A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: case study for Annotto Bay, Jamaica. Nat Hazards 88:1867–1891. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2920-5
Hanes DM (2016) Human instability related to drowning risk in surf zones for novice beachgoers or weak swimmers. Nat Hazards 83:761–766. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2337-6
Houser C, Barrett G, Labude D (2011) Alongshore variation in the rip current hazard at Pensacola Beach, Florida. Nat Hazards 57:501–523. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9636-0
Houser C, Murphy T, Labude D (2015) Alongshore correspondence of beach users and rip channels at Pensacola Beach, Florida. Nat Hazards 78:2175–2183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1804-9
Huang C, Anderson E, Liu Y et al (2022) Evaluating essential processes and forecast requirements for meteotsunami-induced coastal flooding. Nat Hazards 110:1693–1718. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05007-x
Idris AH, Berg RA, Bierens J et al (2003) Recommended guidelines for uniform reporting of data from drowning: the “Utstein style.” Circulation 108:2565–2574. https://doi.org/10.1161/01.CIR.0000099581.70012.68
Idris AH, Bierens JJLM, Perkins GD et al (2017) 2015 revised Utstein-style recommended guidelines for uniform reporting of data from drowning-related resuscitation: an ILCOR advisory statement. Resuscitation 118:147–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resuscitation.2017.05.028
ILS (2017) Minimum data set on fatal drowning: coding and definitions manual. International Life Saving
Işın A, Peden AE (2022) Assessing variations in estimates of drowning mortality in Turkey from 2013 to 2019. Arch Public Health 80:178. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-022-00944-w
Işın A, Akdağ E, Turgut A (2020) The epidemiology of fatal drowning in children: a 13-year retrospective study in Turkey. Int J Inj Control Saf Promot 27:465–471. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2020.1810075
Kamstra P, Cook B, Kennedy DM, Brighton B (2018) Treating risk as relational on shore platforms and implications for public safety on microtidal rocky coasts. Nat Hazards 91:1299–1316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3184-4
Kamstra P, Cook B, Kennedy D et al (2020) Drowning ‘Truths’: contrasting experiential-experts’ perceptions with official-experts drowning reports on Australia’s hazardous coasts. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 47:101558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101558
Karadurmuş U (2021) Individual seafood diver in Turkey—case of Balikesir province. In: International Symposium of Scientific Research and Innovative Studies (22–25 Feb. 2021). Balıkesir, Turkey
Kiakalayeh AD, Mohammadi R, Ekman DS, Chabok SY, Janson B (2008) Unintentional drowning in northern Iran: a population-based study. Accid Anal Prev 40:1977–1981. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2008.08.008
Leroy SAG, Gracheva R, Medvedev A (2022) Natural hazards and disasters around the Caspian Sea. Springer, Dordrecht
Lippmann J, Stevenson C, McD Taylor D, Williams J, Mohebbi M (2017) Chain of events analysis for a scuba diving fatality. Diving Hyperb Med 47:144–154. https://doi.org/10.28920/dhm47.3.144-154
McCarroll RJ, Brander RW, MacMahan JH et al (2014) Evaluation of swimmer-based rip current escape strategies. Nat Hazards 71:1821–1846. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0979-1
Mohammed Isa NA, Ramli MZ, Che Othman SF, Yusof MZ (2021) A preliminary studies to assess public knowledge of beach safety in east coast Malaysia. Nat Hazards 107:873–887. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04613-z
Morris NK, du Toit-Prinsloo L, Saayman G (2016) Drowning in Pretoria, South Africa: a 10-year review. J For Legal Med 37:66–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jflm.2015.10.010
Mucerino L, Carpi L, Schiaffino CF et al (2021) Rip current hazard assessment on a sandy beach in Liguria, NW Mediterranean. Nat Hazards 105:137–156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04299-9
Nakamura I, Llasat MC (2017) Policy and systems of flood risk management: a comparative study between Japan and Spain. Nat Hazards 87:919–943. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2802-x
Nicholls N (2001) Atmospheric and climatic hazards: improved monitoring and prediction for disaster mitigation. Nat Hazards 23:137–155. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011130223164
Novelo-Casanova DA, Suárez G (2010) Natural and man-made hazards in the Cayman Islands. Nat Hazards 55:441–466. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9539-0
Orton PM, Conticello FR, Cioffi F et al (2020) Flood hazard assessment from storm tides, rain and sea level rise for a tidal river estuary. Nat Hazards 102:729–757. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3251-x
Peden M, Oyegbite K, Ozanne-Smith J et al (2008) World report on child injury prevention. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva
Peden AE, Franklin RC, Leggat PA (2016) Fatal river drowning: the identification of research gaps through a systematic literature review. Inj Prev 22:202–209. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2015-041750
Peden AE, Franklin RC, Leggat PA (2017) Alcohol and its contributory role in fatal drowning in Australian rivers, 2002–2012. Accid Anal Prev 98:259–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.009
Peden AE, Franklin RC, Queiroga AC (2018) Epidemiology, risk factors and strategies for the prevention of global unintentional fatal drowning in people aged 50 years and older: a systematic review. Inj Prev 24:240–247. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042351
Peden AE, Willcox-Pidgeon SM, Scarr JP, Franklin RC (2020) Comparing rivers to lakes: implications for drowning prevention. Aust J Rural Health 28:568–578. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajr.12679
Penning-Rowsell E, Floyd P, Ramsbottom D, Surendran S (2005) Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: a deterministic framework. Nat Hazards 36:43–64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4538-7
Pitman SJ, Wrightd M, Hockena R (2019) An analysis of lifejacket wear, environmental factors, and casualty activity on marine accident fatality rates. Saf Sci 111:234–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.07.016
Pointer K, Milligan GS, Garratt KL, Clark SP, Tipton MJ (2018) A 10-year descriptive analysis of UK Maritime and Coastguard data on lifejacket use and drowning prevention. Saf Sci 109:195–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.06.003
Puleo JA, Hutschenreuter K, Cowan P et al (2016) Delaware surf zone injuries and associated environmental conditions. Nat Hazards 81:845–867. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2108-9
Quan L (2014) Risk factors for drowning. Culture and ethnicity. In: Bierens JJLM (ed) Drowning prevention, rescue, treatment. Springer, Heidelberg
Ramnefjell MP, Morild I, Mørk SJ, Lilleng PK (2012) Fatal diving accidents in western Norway 1983–2007. Forensic Sci Int 223:e22–e26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2012.08.042
Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism (2022) Tourism statistics. https://www.ktb.gov.tr/EN-249283/tourism-statistics.html. Accessed 26 June 2022
RLS (2020) Royal life saving national drowning report 2020—Australia. Royal Life Saving Society—Australia, Sydney. https://www.royallifesaving.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/33861/RLS_NationalDrowningReport2020LR-FINAL.pdf. Accessed 26 May 2022
Rolloque A, Consunji R, Perez MT, Alcantra M, Azas PD (2012) Cutcut project: a response to the prevention of child drowning in the Philippines. Inj Prev 18:A132. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2012-040590h.2
Segura LE, Arozarena I, Koon W, Gutiérrez A (2022) Coastal drowning in Costa Rica: incident analysis and comparisons between Costa Rican nationals and foreigners. Nat Hazards 110:1083–1095. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04980-7
Shabanikiya H, Seyedin H, Haghani H, Ebrahimian A (2014) Behavior of crossing flood on foot, associated risk factors and estimating a predictive model. Nat Hazards 73:1119–1126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1124-5
Solomon R, Giganti MJ, Weiner A, Akpinar-Elci M (2013) Water safety education among primary school children in Grenada. Int J Inj Control Saf Promot 20:266–270. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2012.717083
Stempski S, Schiff M, Bennett E, Quan L (2014) A case-control study of boat-related injuries and fatalities in Washington State. Inj Prev 20:232–237. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2013-041022
Strom MA, Pasternack GB, Burman SG et al (2017) Hydraulic hazard exposure of humans swept away in a whitewater river. Nat Hazards 88:473–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2875-6
Taşkesen M, Pirinççioğlu AG, Yaramiş A (2015) Drowning and near-drowning in children in the southeast of Turkey. J Acad Emerg Med 14:16–18. https://doi.org/10.5152/jaem.2015.92499
Taylor DH, Pidgeon S, Peden AE (2020) A ten year national review of lake, dam and lagoon drowning deaths: 2008/2009 to 2017/2018. Royal Life Saving Society—Australia, Sydney
Terzidis A, Koutroumpa A, Skalkidis I et al (2007) Water safety: age-specific changes in knowledge and attitudes following a school-based intervention. Inj Prev 13:120–124. https://doi.org/10.1136/ip.2006.014316
Thomas V (2017) Climate change and natural disasters: Transforming economies and policies for a sustainable future. London, Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315081045
Turgut A (2012) A study on multiple drowning syndromes. Int J Inj Control Saf Promot 19:63–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2011.603154
Turgut A, Turgut T (2012) A study on rescuer drowning and multiple drowning incidents. J Saf Res 43:129–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2012.05.001
Turgut A, Turgut T (2014) A population-based study on deaths by drowning incidents in Turkey. Int J Inj Control Saf Promot 21:61–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2012.759238
Turgut T, Yaman M, Turgut A (2016) Educating children on water safety for drowning prevention. Soc Indic Res 129:787–801. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-1109-0
Turkish Coast Guard Command (2022) Statistics: irregular migration. Republic of Türkiye Coast Ministry of Interior of Interior Guard Command, Ankara. https://en.sg.gov.tr/irregular-migration-statistics
Turkstat (2022) Population and demography. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/. Accessed 29 May 2022
Ulukan U (2016) Fish, boats and crews: working and living conditions in the fishing sector of Turkey. Labour Soc 48:115–142
Van Leeuwen BR, McCarroll RJ, Brander RW et al (2016) Examining rip current escape strategies in non-traditional beach morphologies. Nat Hazards 81:145–165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2072-4
Vinet F, Lumbroso D, Defossez S, Boissier L (2012) A comparative analysis of the loss of life during two recent floods in France: the sea surge caused by the storm Xynthia and the flash flood in Var. Nat Hazards 61:1179–1201. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9975-5
Vinkel J, Bak P, Hyldegaard O (2016) Danish diving fatalities 1999–2012. Diving Hyperb Med 46:142–149
Warner K, Hamza M, Oliver-Smith A et al (2010) Climate change, environmental degradation and migration. Nat Hazards 55:689–715. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9419-7
Webber W, Moran K, French C, Fozard F, Pearless O (2020) Fatal coastal drowning incidents: a 10-year review of body recovery times in New Zealand. Forensic Sci Int 317:1573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2020.110573
White KM, Zhao X, Hyde MK, Hamilton K (2018) Surviving the swim: psychosocial influences on pool owners’ safety compliance and child supervision behaviours. Saf Sci 106:176–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.03.020
WHO (2014) Global report on drowning: preventing a leading killer. World Health Organization Press, Geneva
WHO (2019) International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems, 11th revision. World Health Organization Press, Geneva
Willcox-Pidgeon S, Kool B, Moran K (2018) Perceptions of the risk of drowning at surf beaches among New Zealand youth. Int J Inj Control Saf Promot 25:365–371. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2018.1431939
Willcox-Pidgeon S, Peden AE, Franklin RC, Scarr J (2019) Boating-related drowning in Australia: epidemiology, risk factors and the regulatory environment. J Saf Res 70:117–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2019.06.005
Yanes Luque A, Rodríguez-Báez JA, Máyer Suárez P et al (2021) Marine storms in coastal tourist areas of the Canary Islands. Nat Hazards 109:1297–1325. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04879-3
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Coast Guard Command and Gendarmerie General Command under the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Türkiye for their valuable contributions during data collection. The authors' opinions herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of government agencies.
Funding
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
UK: conceptualization, formal analysis, methodology, supervision, writing—original draft preparation, writing—reviewing and editing. SA: conceptualization, formal analysis, methodology, writing—original draft preparation, writing—reviewing and editing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Alkan, S., Karadurmuş, U. Risk assessment of natural and other hazard factors on drowning incidents in Turkey. Nat Hazards 118, 2459–2475 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06095-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06095-7