Abstract
Increased temperature rates have the potential to change the rainfall regime in a given region, as well as to intensify its extreme events, which may lead to significant and negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts on urban populations. However, knowledge about the extent of changes in rainfall rates in Rio de Janeiro City (RJC) remains incipient; thus, it is necessary applying indices climate change to help better understanding this phenomenon. The aim of the current study is to investigate changes in rainfall distribution and increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in RJC. Daily rainfall data deriving from fifteen weather stations distributed in RJC were analyzed in the RclimDex software and Mann–Kendall test. The analysis has shown increased rainfall rates from the beginning of the series to approximately the first ten years of study. Total rainfall rate has decreased after this period. Rainfall intensity in almost all seasons has decreased after 2005; this outcome has indicated reduced annual rainfall rate and number of wet days. However, there was prevalence of positive trends in daily rainfall rates (Rx1day) and in total rainfall of five consecutive days (Rx5day). The increased number of extreme rainfall events in RJC can cause sudden inundations, floods, runoffs and river overflows with potential to cause landslides and human death due to irregular occupation of hills and slopes.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Available at: http://alertario.rio.rj.gov.br/download/dados-pluviometricos. Access on: January 22.nd, 2018.
Available at: http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/software.shtml. Access on: August 15 th, 2018.
References
Araújo A (2019) Prédios desabam na Muzema e deixam mortos e feridos. O dia. https://odia.ig.com.br/rio-de-janeiro/2019/04/5633829-predios-desabam-na-muzema.html. Accessed 13 June 2020
Avila A, Justino F, Wilson A, Bromwich D, Amorim M (2016) Recent precipitation trends, flash floods and landslides in southern Brazil. Environ Res Lett 11:114029. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114029
Boers N, Goswami B, Rheinwalt A, Bookhagen B, Hoskins B, Kurths J (2019) Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections. Nature 566:373–377. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0872-x
Bradford RA, O’Sullivan JJ, Van Der Craats IM, Krywkow J, Rotko P, Aaltonen J, Bonaiuto M, De Dominici S, Waylen K, Schelfaut K (2012) Risk perception—issues for flood management in Europe. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:2299–2309. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2299-2012
Carvalho LV, Wanderley HS (2022) Risk identification of precipitation extremes due to climate change in the southern region of the state of Rio de Janeiro. Revista Brasileira De Geografia Física 15:2073–2085
Casanueva A, Rodríguez-Puebla C, Frías MD, González-Reviriego N (2014) Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:709–725. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014
Clem KR, Fogt RL (2015) South Pacific circulation changes and their connection to the tropics and regional Antarctic warming in austral spring, 1979–2012. JGR Atmospheres 119:2015. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022940
Coelho Netto AL (2005) The forest-urban interface and natural disasters related to water in the Maciço da Tijuca: challenges to urban planning from a socio-environmental perspective. Rev Do Depar De Geografia 16:46–60. https://doi.org/10.7154/RDG.2005.0016.0005
Debortoli NS, Camarinha PIM, Marengo JA, Rodrigues RR (2017) An index of Brazil’s vulnerability to expected increases in natural flash flooding and landslide disasters in the context of climate change. Nat Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2705-2
Dereczynski CP, Oliveira JSM, Osório C (2009) Climatology of precipitation in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. Rev Bras Meteorol 24(1):24–38. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862009000100003
Dereczynski CP, Calado RN, de Barros AB (2017) Extreme rains in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro: History from the 19th century. Anuario Do Inst Geociencias 40(2):17–30
Donat MG, Lowry AL, Alexander LV, O’Gorman PA, Maher N (2016) More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions. Nat Clim Chang 6:508–513. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2941
Filho GRO (2012) Mass movements in the mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro in 2011: diagnosis and proposal for measures to face environmental disasters. CES Revista 26:149–164
Filho W, Lucio P, Spyrides MH (2016) Characterization of daily precipitation extremes in Northeast Brazil. Bol Goiano De Geografia 36(3):539–554. https://doi.org/10.5216/bgg.v36i3.44557
Goyal MK, Shivam G, Sarma AK (2019) Spatial homogeneity of extreme precipitation indices using fuzzy clustering over northeast India. Nat Hazards 98:559–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03715-z
Halimatou TA, Kalifa T, Kyei-Baffour N (2017) Assessment of changing trends of daily precipitation and temperature extremes in Bamako and Ségou in Mali from 1961–2014. Weat Clim Extrem 18:8–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.09.002
IBGE (2021) Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. https://www.ibge.gov.br/cidades-e-estados/rj/rio-de-janeiro.html. Accessed 28 July 2021
Kellens W, Zaalberg R, Neutens T, Vanneuville W, De Maeyer P (2011) An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast. Risk Anal 31:1055–1068. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01571.x
Kendall MG (1975) Rank Correlation Methods. Oxford University Press, New York, NY
Lechowska E (2018) What determines flood risk perception? A review of factors of flood risk perception and relations between its basic elements. Nat Hazards 94:1341–1366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3480-z
Liebmann B, Jones C, De CLMV (2001) Interannual variability of daily extreme precipitation events in the state of São Paulo. Brazil J Climate 14(2):208–218. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014%3c0208:IVODEP%3e2.0.CO;2
Lorentz JF, Calijuri ML, Marques EG, Baptista AC (2016) Multicriteria analysis applied to landslide susceptibility mapping. Nat Hazards 83(1):41–52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2300-6
Luiz-Silva W, Oscar-Júnior AC (2022) Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends. Nat Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05409-5
Maia ACN (2012) Images of a submerged city: Rio de Janeiro and its floods in the memory of writers and photographers. Rev Escritos 6:247–274
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Marengo JA, Espinoza JC (2016) Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts: Extremes in Amazonia. Int J Clim 36(3):1033–1050. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4420
Marengo JA, Camarinha PI, Alves LM, Diniz F, Betts RA (2021) Extreme Rainfall and hydro-geo-meteorological disaster risk in 1.5, 2.0, and 4.0 °C global warming scenarios: an analysis for brazil. Front Clim. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.610433
Mastrantonas N, Herrera-Lormendez P, Magnusson L, Pappenberger F, Matschullat J (2021) Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large-scale atmospheric flow patterns. Int J Climatol 41:2710–2728. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6985
Obregón G, Marengo J, Nobre C (2014) Rainfall and climate variability: long-term trends in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo in the 20th century. Clim Res 61(2):93–107. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01241
Oulahen G, Shrubsole D, McBean G (2015) Determinants of residential vulnerability to flood hazards in Metro Vancouver, Canada. Nat Hazards 78:939–956. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1751-5
Párraga GOO (2003) Dynamics of the climatic variability of precipitation over South America. National Institute for Space Research (INPE). n. INPE-8604-TDI/789. São José dos Campos. pp 196.
Pereira RMS, Wanderley HS, Delgado RC (2021) Homogeneous regions for rainfall distribution in the city of Rio de Janeiro associated with the risk of natural disasters. Nat Hazards 108:234–248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05056-2
Pohlert T (2020) _trend: Non-Parametric Trend Tests and Change-Point Detection. R package version 1.1.4, <https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=trend>.
R Core Team (2022) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL https://www.R-project.org/.
Raia A, Cavalcanti IFA (2008) The life cycle of the South American monsoon system. J Climate 21(23):6227–6246. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2249.1
Raymond C, Matthews T, Horton RM (2020) The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance. Sci Adv 6:eaaw1838. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838
Regoto P, Dereczynski C, Chou SC, Bazzanela AC (2021) Observed changes in air temperature and precipitation extremes over Brazil. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7119
Salviano MF, Groppo JD, Pellegrino GQ (2016) Analysis of trends in precipitation and temperature data in Brazil. Ver Bras Meteorol 31(1):64–73. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620150003
Scolobig A, De Marchi B, Borga M (2012) The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region. Nat Hazards 63:499–520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0161-1v
Seneviratne S I, Nichols N, Easterling D, Goodess C M, Kanae S, Kossin J, et al. (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, et al. (Eds.), Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. [A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] (pp. 109–230). Cambridge University Press.
Shi C, Jiang ZH, Chen WL, Li L (2018) Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets. Adv Clim Change Res 9(2):120–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.11.003
Siciliano WC, Bastos GP, Oliveira IT, Silva GN, Obraczka M, Ohnuma AA (2018) Variabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitação pluvial no município do Rio De Janeiro. Revista Internacional De Ciências 8(2):196–208. https://doi.org/10.12957/ric.2018.33811
Silva WL, Dereczynski CP (2014) Climatological characterization and observed trends in climatic extremes in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Anuario Do Inst Geocienc 37:2
Terassi PMB, Osca-Júnior ACS, Galvani E, Olieira-Júnior JF, Sobral BS, Biffi R, Gois G (2022) Daily rainfall intensity and temporal trends in eastern Paraná state – Brazil. Urban Climate 42:101090. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101090
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Shepherd TG (2015) Attribution of climate extreme events. Nat Clim Change 5(8):725730. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
Triola MF (2005) Introduction to Statistics. 9ª Edição. Editora LTC. Rio de Janeiro. pp 656.
Varnes DJ (1984) Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice. UNESCO, Paris
Vincent LA, Zhang X, Mekis É, Wan H, Bush EJ (2018) Changes in Canada’s climate: trends in indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Atmos Ocean 56:332–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579
Wanderley HS, Bunhak ACS (2016) Alteration in precipitation and number of days without rain in the southern region of Rio de Janeiro state. Rev Brasil Geog Físic 9(7):2341–2353. https://doi.org/10.5935/1984-2295.20160167
Wanderley HS, Miguel VC (2019) Changes in meteorological elements due to the degradation of the urban forest. Cienc Florest 29(2):834–843. https://doi.org/10.5902/1980509832090
Wanderley HS, Sediyama GC, Justino FB, AlencerDelgado LPRC (2013) Precipitation variability in the Sertão of San Francisco in the State of Alagoas. Rev Bras Eng Agric Ambient 17(7):790–795. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013000700014
Wanderley HS, Carvalho AL, Fernandes RC, Souza JL (2014) Change in the temporal regime of air temperature and rainfall in the region of Rio largo. Alagoas Brazil Rev Brasil Geog Físic 7(4):662–667. https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v7.4.p662-667
Wanderley HS, Fernandes RC, Carvalho AL (2019) Aumento das temperaturas extremas na cidade do Rio de Janeiro e o desvio ocasionado durante um evento de El Niño intenso (Thermal change in the city of Rio de Janeiro and the deviation caused during an intense El Niño event). Revista Brasileira De Geografia Física 12(4):1291. https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v12.4.p1291-1301
Westra S, Alexandre LV, Zwiers FW (2013) Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J Clim 26:3904–3918. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1
Zhang W, Villarini G (2017) Heavy Precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming. Clim Change 145:249–257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2079-9
Zhang X, Alexander L, Hegerl GC, Jones P, Tank AK, Peterson TC, Trewin B, Zwiers FW (2011) Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 2(6):851–870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147
Zhou B, Xu Y, Wu J, Dong S, Shi Y (2016) Changes in temperature and precipitation extreme indices over China: analysis of a high-resolution grid data set. Int J Climatol 36:1051–1066. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4400
Funding
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they do not have any conflict of interest.
Consent to participate
The authors have participated in the preparation of the manuscript and have given their permission to submit this manuscript with its present format.
Consent for publication
The authors have satisfied in the publication of the manuscript and have given their permission to publish this manuscript with its present format.
Ethical approval
The data included in this manuscript have not published previously and are not under consideration by any other journals.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Regueira, A.O., Wanderley, H.S. Changes in rainfall rates and increased number of extreme rainfall events in Rio de Janeiro city. Nat Hazards 114, 3833–3847 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05545-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05545-y