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A GIS-based approach for tornado risk assessment in Mexico

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Abstract

Tornadoes are considered the most extreme manifestation of severe weather, and they are classified as a potentially disastrous phenomenon. In Mexico, tornadoes are common, but they have not received particular attention until recent years because of the socioeconomic impacts derived from significant events. Tornadoes are one of the few natural phenomena in Mexico that do not have an associated risk mapping, as is already the case for other meteorological threats. The present investigation aims to fill this gap by introducing a tornado risk assessment in Mexico using a GIS-based approach. To this end, the risk components—hazard, vulnerability, and exposure—are examined. Tornado hazard was calculated by combining historical tornado reports with potentially severe convective environments computed from the ERA5 dataset. Tornado vulnerability was addressed by the construction of socioeconomic indicators and a multivariate statistical method application. The resulting values were used to define a weighted index based on five main driving factors affecting vulnerability. Exposure was determined using population density. Every subsequent index was added at the municipality level and allowed the computation of a Tornado Risk Index. The results show diverse spatial patterns associated with the three risk components and the risk itself. This first attempt to assess the tornado risk in Mexico exposes relevant information about the natural phenomena and the societal components based on vulnerability and exposure effects. The results can be used to support diverse programs related to integrated risk management for tornadoes in Mexico.

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Acknowledgements

Census data were downloaded from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) available at https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ccpv/2020/default.html/. ERA5 data (temperature, specific and relative humidity, geopotential height, u-wind, and v-wind) were downloaded from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/). We thank the editor and the two anonymous reviewers for providing valuable comments that helped to improve and clarify this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Geografía Física, Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad de México, México

    José Francisco León-Cruz

  2. Departamento de Geografía y Ordenamiento Territorial, Universidad de Guadalajara (U de G), Guadalajara, Jalisco, México

    Rocío Castillo-Aja

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  1. José Francisco León-Cruz
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José Francisco León-Cruz contributed to conceptualization, methodology, software, visualization, formal analysis, investigation, writing, and original draft preparation, review, and editing. Rocío Castillo-Aja contributed to conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation, writing, and original draft preparation, review, and editing.

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León-Cruz, J.F., Castillo-Aja, R. A GIS-based approach for tornado risk assessment in Mexico. Nat Hazards 114, 1563–1583 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05438-0

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