Abstract
Prior research on luck has mostly focused on people’s attributions as to what causes it and how it affects behavior where luck is presumed to be central to the outcome (e.g., a gamble or lottery). The present research investigates the effect of luck on behavior where it is not presumed to be central to shaping the outcome—specifically, goal commitment. Four experiments show that bad luck induces goal paralysis by decreasing people’s commitment to their goals. This goal paralysis occurs because bad luck reduces people’s belief that they are capable of successfully executing behaviors (i.e., reduced self-efficacy) which undermines their subsequent willingness to exert effort at their goals. In addition, we identify goal expectancies as a moderating factor that can eliminate the demotivating effect of bad luck on goal commitment. Implications and potential extensions in the areas of luck, self-efficacy, and motivation are discussed.
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Data availability
Across experiments, data were collected with approval from a university institutional review board, data were anonymous without specific participant identifiers, and analysis occurred only once the target sample was collected. Data and accompanying variable codebooks are available on the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/ue5wh/?view_only=b6ed3778117d4025a3182cb00514b82b).
Notes
A posttest (N = 157) was conducted using the same design as Experiment 1. After participants completed the same card game in the main experiment, they were presented with three items (α = 0.97) that were averaged to assess the believability of the manipulation: “How credible did you find this feedback to be?”, “How accurate did you find this feedback to be?”, and “How much did you believe this feedback?” (1 = Not at all, 7 = Very much). A one-way ANOVA did not reveal a significant difference in the believability of the manipulation among the control, good luck, and bad luck conditions (F(2, 154) = 0.30, p = .741). Moreover, a one-sample t-test revealed that the believability average across conditions was significantly greater than the scale midpoint (4; M = 4.39, SD = 2.19; t(156) = 2.26, p = .025, d = 0.178). These results suggest that the goal commitment results cannot be explained by differences in the believability of the luck manipulations.
2 A posttest (N = 105) was conducted using the same design as Experiment 3. After participants completed the same luck test in the main experiment, they were present with three items (α = 0.87) that were averaged to assess the believability of the manipulation: “How credible did you find this feedback to be?”, “How accurate did you find this feedback to be?”, and “How much did you believe this feedback?” (1 = Not at all, 7 = Very much). An independent samples t-test did not reveal a significant difference in the believability of the manipulation between the good luck and bad luck conditions (t(103) = 0.28, p = .780). Moreover, a one-sample t-test revealed that the believability average across conditions was significantly greater than the scale midpoint (4; M = 4.59, SD = 2.35; t(104) = -2.59, p = .011, d = 0.178).
3 A pretest (N = 97) was conducted to verify the efficacy of our goal expectancy manipulation. After learning of their goal and being provided with the expectancy manipulation, participants responded to four items (α = 0.98) that assessed their perceptions of goal attainment (e.g., “How likely are you to reach your goal?”) on 7-point scales (1 = Not at all, 7 = Very much). A one-way ANOVA on the goal expectancy index revealed a significant effect of the goal expectancy factor (F(2, 95) = 11.65, p < .001, \(\hat{\omega }_{{\text{p}}}^{2}\) = 0.180). Compared to the neutral goal expectancy condition (M = 4.39, SD = 1.80), participants in the high goal expectancy condition perceived the goal as more attainable (M = 5.26, SD = 1.34; F(1, 95) = 5.21, p = .026, \(\hat{\omega }_{{\text{p}}}^{2}\) = 0.042), whereas participants in the low goal expectancy condition perceived the goal as less attainable (M = 3.18, SD = 2.10; F(1, 95) = 6.01, p = .017, \(\hat{\omega }_{{\text{p}}}^{2}\) = 0.049).
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CH, DG, and JC contributed to the conception and design of each study. CH and DG performed material preparation, data collection, and data analysis. AS wrote the first draft of the manuscript and the revised manuscript. JC provided reviews and editing, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Ho, C.M., Grossman, D.M., Salerno, A. et al. Goal paralysis: How bad luck affects goal commitment. Motiv Emot 48, 1–16 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-023-10045-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-023-10045-y