Clean Development Mechanism Potential and Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa lags far behind other regions in terms of the implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects due to several reasons. One of the reasons is a general perception that, since the region contributes very little to global GHG emissions, it also offers few opportunities to reduce these emissions. Using a bottom-up approach, this study investigates the technical potential of reducing GHG emissions from the energy sector in Sub-Saharan Africa through the CDM. The study finds that sub-Saharan Africa could develop 3,227 CDM projects, including 361 programs of activities, which could reduce approximately 9.8 billion tons of GHG emissions during the CDM project cycles. The study also estimates that the realization of this CDM potential could significantly enhance sustainable development in the region as it would attract more than US$200 billion in investment and could generate US$98 billion of CDM revenue at a CER price of US$10/tCO2. Another notable finding of the study is that the realization of this CDM potential could supply clean electricity by doubling the current capacity and thereby providing access of electricity to millions of people in the region. However, realization of this CDM potential is severely constrained by a number of financial, technical, regulatory and institutional barriers.

Appendix

1.1 Key assumptions to estimate GHG mitigation potentials

Technology or CDM Project Type	Key Assumptions
Open to combined cycle gas fired power plant	All open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) commissioned since 1991 are converted to combined cycle (CC) mode, and all planned but not yet operational OCGT plants are replaced with CC plants; economic life of a power plant is 30 years, a power plant can have a single or multiple CDM projects depending on the country situation and size of the plant
Combined heat and power (CHP) for industry	All industrial establishments requiring low and medium temperature heat (e.g., food processing industries) adopt CHP; the emission mitigation threshold of a CDM project is set at 20 and 40 ktCO2/year depending upon the annual GHG mitigation potential through this option in a country
CHP for sugar mills	Existing sugar mills implement an efficient, high pressure baggase fired CHP plant to replace low pressure inefficient stand-alone power and steam plants normally run with diesel or heavy fuel oils; a project site (sugar mill) represents a CDM project
Agricultural residue	Agricultural residues from perennial plantation and annual crops are used to produce electricity which would otherwise have been produced by burning fossil fuels (natural gas for conservative estimates); residue to product ratios vary across countries; avoidance of methane emissions from the decay of residues was ignored for of conservative estimates of GHG mitigation potential; the size of a CDM project is 50 MW.
Forest and wood residues	Forest residues (e.g., branches, stumps, top of trunks) and residues from wood processing industries (e.g., log cores, wood slabs, end pieces and saw dust) are used to produce electricity which would otherwise have been produced by burning fossil fuels (natural gas for conservative estimates); 0.134 tons of forest residues per ton of roundwood harvest; thermal efficiency of residue-fired steam turbine is 33%; the size of a CDM project is 10 MW due to the diffuse nature of forest residues as compared to agriculture residues.
Typha australis	Typha found along Senegal and Niger rivers is used to produce electricity which would otherwise have been produced burning fossil fuels (natural gas for conservative estimates); harvestable quantities available in the Senegal River valley 200,000 tons/year, energy density 17MJ/kg of dry mass; thermal efficiency of residue-fired steam turbine is 33%; the size of a CDM project is 10 MW
Jatropha biodiesel for electricity generationa	Degraded lands amounting to 2% of the total land area is available for cultivation of jatropha; diesel is replaced with biodiesel in existing diesel-fired power plants; jatropha yields vary across country depending on soil and climatic conditions; a CDM project (or program of activities) represents an electricity plant with installed capacity 10 MW or lower
Hydroelectricity	Selected hydropower plants in countries endowed with significant hydropower potential (e.g., Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Burkina Faso) displace or delays thermal power plants with average emission intensity of 0.8tCO2/kWh, a CDM project represents a hydropower plant irrespective of its installed capacity
Photovoltaics in isolated rural areas	Electricity generation from PV cells replaces kerosene or diesel fired electricity for lighting in rural and peri-urban areas; 120,000 households are supplied with 75-kW PV kit per households
Landfill gas	Use of landfill gas to produce electricity in cities with population more than 1 million and an average precipitation above 500 mm; recovery efficiency of LFG is 70% and fraction of methane in LFG is 0.5; countries average emission factor varies from 0.69tCO2 to 0.8tCO2 per MWh
Electricity T&D loss reduction	Refurbishing and upgrading of existing electricity transmission and distribution systems to reduce T&D loss in the region except Southern African Development Community (SADC) from an existing average value of 27% to 8% and from an average value of 15% to 8% in SADC region; an average 33% thermal efficiency of fossil fuel fired power plants; one CDM project per country
Flared gas recovery	Recovery of associated gas, which would be flared or vented otherwise, from oil fields in 12 oil producing countries; existing levels of flaring and venting in the baseline scenario and recovery rates in the project scenario vary across countries; recovered gas is used for power generation in combined cycle power plants with thermal efficiency 59%; One CDM project per electricity plant, 500 MW or small; number of power plants vary across countries with volume of recovered gas
Coal mine methane	Use of methane, which would be vented otherwise, is captured in coal mines and is used for power generation; 5% of methane is used as a mine fuel or flared; power generation technology is gas turbine with 35% thermal efficiency and 85% capacity factor; one CDM project per coal mine
Waste gases in crude oil refinery	Use of waste gas (i.e., incondensable gases rich in hydrogen, methane and light hydrocarbons), which would be flared otherwise, captured from oil refinery is used for on-site power generation in oil refineries; waste gas represents 2% of crude oil feedstock in the refinery; 90% of waste gas is recovered; One CDM project per refinery
Improved charcoal production	Improving charcoal production efficiency from existing level of 18% on average to 35-40% by replacing traditional charcoal kilns with high yield, low emission technologies; a CDM project corresponds minimum of 150 kilns with total annual charcoal production capacity of 9,855 tons
Improved steam system	15% improvement of steam generation and distribution efficiency in industrial establishments through optimization of condensate return systems, retrofitting or replacement of boilers and improving distribution systems; the activity is implemented under POA with annual emission reduction capacity of a POA is 60,000 tCO2 or lower
Clinker reduction in cement production	Reducing clinker to cement production ratio from 0.95 to 0.75 by increasing the proportions of additives (e.g., limestone, fly ash etc.); ratio of raw materials to cement is 1.54; calcium carbonate (CaCO3) to raw material ratio is 0.78; CO2 to CaCO3 stochiometric ratio is 0.44; one CDM project per cement factory
Industrial energy efficiency improvement (except for lighting)	Improvement of end-use energy efficiency in processes and devices excluding electric bulbs/lamps in industrial establishments (.e.g., electrical motors, air conditioning etc.); the level of improvements vary across countries depending on average efficiency of existing stock of devices and processes; One CDM project or POA for each country selected
Biodiesel from Jatropha for transportationa	Degraded lands amounting to 2% of the total land area is available for cultivation of jatropha; resulting blend contains 20% of biodiesel (B20) which can be used in normal diesel-run vehicles without engine modification; a CDM project (or program of activities) represents biodiesel production facility with a processing capacity of 100,000 tons or less per year
Shift to Bus Rapid Transit	Candidates cities for BRT have population more than 500,000; in countries with no city exceeding threshold population, the largest city is considered; all together 54 cities identified for 71 BRT projects; a BRT project saves up to 20% of diesel and gasoline consumption combined
Compact fluorescent lamps in households	90% households will replace their incandescent lamps with CFL; 2 CFL per lighting point over a 10-year project crediting period; number of households vary across countries and number of lighting points vary along with average floor space; the activity is implemented under POA with annual emission reduction capacity of a POA 100,000 tCO2 or lower
Energy efficient appliances in households (except lighting)	10% savings in electricity consumption through use of energy efficient appliances excluding electric bulbs/lamps (e.g., refrigerators, air-conditioning units, stoves, electronic devices); the activity is implemented under POA with annual emission reduction capacity of a POA 50,000 tCO2 or lower in South Africa and 10,000 tCO2 or lower in the rest of the countries

^aTotal land available for jatropha needed for both electricity generation and transportation CDM projects is 2% of the total land area