Abstract
Context
Climate change is considered an important factor affecting the distribution and genetic diversity of species. While many studies have described the influence of climate change on population structure at various scales, little is known about the genetic consequences of a changing climate on endemic species.
Objectives
To assess possible changes in the distribution and genetic structure of the endangered Nilgiri tahr (Nilgiritragus hylocrius), which is endemic to the Western Ghats in India, under climate change and human disturbances.
Methods
We integrated tahr occurrence and nuclear DNA data with environmental geo-datasets to project the response of tahr populations to future climate change with respect to its distribution, genetic diversity and population structure. We screened the environmental variables using MaxEnt to identify a manageable set of predictors to be used in an ensemble approach, based on ten species distribution modelling techniques, to quantify the current tahr distribution. We then projected the distribution and genetic structure under two climate change scenarios.
Results
We found that suitable habitat for tahr (9,605 km2) is determined predominantly by a combination of climatic, human disturbance and topographic factors that result in a highly fragmented habitat throughout its distribution range in the Western Ghats. Under the severe high emissions RCP8.5 scenario tahr populations may lose more than half of their available habitat (55.5%) by 2070. Application of spatial Bayesian clustering suggests that their current genetic structure comprise four genetic clusters, with three of them reflecting a clear geographic structure. However, under climate change, two of these clusters may be lost, and in the future a homogenization of the genetic background of the remaining populations may arise due to prevalence of one gene pool cluster in the remaining populations.
Conclusions
Our interdisciplinary approach that combines niche modelling and genetic data identified the climate refugia (i.e., the remaining stable habitats that overlap with the current suitable areas), where the tahr populations would be restricted to small, isolated and fragmented areas. Essential factors to avert local extinctions of vulnerable tahr populations are a reduction of human disturbances, dispersal of tahr between fragmented populations, and the availability of corridors.
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Data availability
All environmental layers are freely available online, see in‐text references. While species locations are provided in Figure 1, the exact observation points may only be made available upon request for scientific purposes due to the risk of poaching.
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Acknowledgements
We are thankful to the Director, Dean (Faculty of Wildlife Science), Research Coordinator and Nodal Officer, Wildlife Forensic and Conservation Genetics Cell, Wildlife Institute of India for providing research facilities. The project was supported by Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India. The authors thank the State Forest Departments of Kerala and Tamil Nadu for according permission for sample collection and local forest staffs for their support. RK was financially supported by German Research Foundation DFG (project number 273837911). We thank an anonymous reviewer for critically reading the manuscript and suggesting substantial improvements.
Funding
This research was supported by the Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India, and by a German Research Foundation (DFG) fellowship awarded to RK (project number 273837911).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Samples were collected by MAP, RM and genetic data were generated by BDJ, RM, RD, MK, VK. Genetic data analysis was performed by BDJ, SKS, RD, PP, VS, SPG. Project was supervised by BP, PN, SPG. Data curation, variable preparation and formal analysis were performed by RK. The original draft of the manuscript was written by RK. TW, AT, BH, GVG, PN, RS, SPG, and all other authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Kanagaraj, R., Joshi, B.D., De, R. et al. Predicting the impact of climate change on range and genetic diversity patterns of the endangered endemic Nilgiri tahr (Nilgiritragus hylocrius) in the western Ghats, India. Landsc Ecol 38, 2085–2101 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01681-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01681-3