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Trajectories of HIV Risk Behavior from Age 15 to 25 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Sample

  • Empirical Research
  • Published:
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Abstract

This study utilized data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate youth risk trajectories for HIV and factors associated with different trajectories. The sample (N = 8,208) was 49.2% female, with a mean age of 14.31 (SD = 1.48). A group-based trajectory model was applied, which identified four distinct trajectories for both males and females: (1) consistently higher sexual risk levels, increasing to early adulthood followed by some decrease (“high”); (2) a short period of increase to late teens, followed by a longer period of decrease (“decreased”); (3) an initially slow increase, with the increase accelerating by late teens, and a slight decline beginning in early adulthood (“increased”); and (4) consistently lowest levels of sexual risk (“low”). More African Americans were found among the decreased trajectory group; among the low risk group a higher number of youth came from families with parents who spoke a language other than English. The high-risk group had a higher percentage of subjects in non-metropolitan areas and highest alcohol use. Among males, being employed and being in the military were associated with inclusion in the high-risk group. Results have implications for specializing prevention strategies for youth with different patterns of sexual risk.

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Acknowledgement

This research was supported by Grant #P30 DA016383 from the National Institute of Drug Abuse.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Health Risk Reduction Projects, Integrated Substance Abuse Programs, Department of Psychiatry, University of California at Los Angeles, 11075 Santa Monica Blvd., Suite 200, Los Angeles, CA, 90025-7539, USA

    Debra A. Murphy & Diane M. Herbeck

  2. Integrated Substance Abuse Programs, Department of Psychiatry, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Mary-Lynn Brecht & David Huang

Authors
  1. Debra A. Murphy
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  2. Mary-Lynn Brecht
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Correspondence to Debra A. Murphy.

Appendix

Appendix

Group-based trajectory group model for males and females

Trajectory group

Males

Females

 

Estimate (SE)

High

    Intercept

−17.87 (1.26)*

−16.51 (0.88)*

    Linear

1.87 (0.12)*

1.77 (0.09)*

    Quadratic

−0.04 (0.002)*

−0.04 (0.002)*

Decrease

    Intercept

−26.34 (3.84)*

−19.78 (4.37)*

    Linear

2.99 (0.39)*

2.30 (0.45)*

    Quadratic

−0.08 (0.01)*

−0.06 (0.01)*

Increase

    Intercept

−39.47 (1.94)*

−42.03 (1.55)*

    Linear

3.54 (0.18)*

3.89 (0.14)*

    Quadratic

−0.07 (0.004)*

−0.09 (0.003)*

Low

    Intercept

5.14 (3.45)

−59.00 (11.61)*

    Linear

−1.00 (0.33)*

4.74 (1.03)*

    Quadratic

0.03 (0.008)*

−0.09 (0.02)*

Sigma

1.28 (0.009)*

1.17 (0.007)*

Group membership

  
 

Observed (estimated)

High

38.9% (38.0%)

42.4% (41.4%)

Decrease

12.0% (13.9%)

6.1% (7.1%)

Increase

34.0% (32.8%)

35.9% (36.1%)

Low

15.1% (15.3%)

15.6% (15.4%)

BIC

−34394.25

−34020.49

  1. * p < .01

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Murphy, D.A., Brecht, ML., Herbeck, D.M. et al. Trajectories of HIV Risk Behavior from Age 15 to 25 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Sample. J Youth Adolescence 38, 1226–1239 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-008-9323-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-008-9323-6

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