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Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard: a UK historical perspective

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Abstract

It is notoriously difficult to construct seismic source models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in intraplate areas on the basis of geological information, and many practitioners have given up the task in favour of purely seismicity-based models. This risks losing potentially valuable information in regions where the earthquake catalogue is short compared to the seismic cycle. It is interesting to survey how attitudes to this issue have evolved over the past 30 years. This paper takes the UK as an example, and traces the evolution of seismic source models through generations of hazard studies. It is found that in the UK, while the earliest studies did not consider regional tectonics in any way, there has been a gradual evolution towards more tectonically based models. Experience in other countries, of course, may differ.

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Acknowledgements

This paper started life as a presentation to the 2010 General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, and I am grateful to the various people who urged me to write it up subsequently; also to Susanne Sargeant of BGS for commenting on the draft. Figure 3 appears with the permission of British Energy. The paper is published with the approval of the Executive Director of the British Geological Survey (NERC).

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  1. British Geological Survey, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LA, UK

    R. M. W. Musson

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Correspondence to R. M. W. Musson.

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Musson, R.M.W. Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard: a UK historical perspective. J Seismol 16, 261–273 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-011-9268-1

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