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Assessing Ecological Divergence and Speciation Scenarios of the Paragalago zanzibaricus Species Complex Through Climatic Niche Modeling

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Abstract

Cryptic species complexes consist of geographically confluent, closely related species that were once classified as a single species. The diversification mechanisms of cryptic species complexes often are mediated by environmental factors, which in some cases lead to ecological speciation. Niche-based distribution modeling can be an important tool in characterizing the extent of ecological divergence between species that may have resulted from environmentally driven speciation scenarios. We used climatic niche modeling to examine the degree of ecological divergence within the Paragalago zanzibaricus species complex in East Africa. We expected parapatrically distributed P. cocos and P. zanzibaricus to display a significant degree of climatic niche distinction and allopatrically distributed P. zanzibaricus and P. granti to exhibit a degree of niche conservatism. The extent of niche overlap between the three species was assessed by using a Niche Similarity Analysis (NSA) on bioclimatic values. Selected models for all three species exhibited good predictive ability, although the model for P. cocos was most optimal and appeared most consistent with its known range. NSA showed that P. cocos and P. zanzibaricus were statistically more similar than predicted from null distributional values. Results for NSA between the other two species pairings appear to be within the null distribution. The extent of niche overlap between all three species is consistent with the expectations of allopatric speciation processes. Future studies should examine alternative hypotheses for speciation within this group, including the role of sensory drive, interspecific competition, and the impact of Plio-Pleistocene climatic cycles.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Bethany Johnson from the Wallace EcoMod working group for her generous guidance of how to work with and troubleshoot errors in the Wallace niche modeling platform. They also thank the reviewers and editors of our manuscript for their thoughtful and considerate suggestions and revisions. This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (BCS 1926105/1926215).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Anthropology, University of Texas at San Antonio, One UTSA Circle, San Antonio, TX, USA

    Evan Miller, Averee Luhrs & Luca Pozzi

  2. Department of Anthropology, The Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA

    Amanda Mancini

  3. The New York Consortium in Evolutionary Primatology (NYCEP), New York, NY, USA

    Amanda Mancini

  4. Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, the American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA

    Mary E. Blair

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EM: Formal analysis, methodology, writing original draft, writing review & editing. AL: formal analysis on preliminary stages of the project. AM: formal analysis on preliminary stages of the project. MEB: formal analysis, methodology, writing review & editing. LP: Conceptualization, data collection and curation, project administration; writing original draft; writing-review & editing.

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Correspondence to Luca Pozzi.

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Miller, E., Luhrs, A., Mancini, A. et al. Assessing Ecological Divergence and Speciation Scenarios of the Paragalago zanzibaricus Species Complex Through Climatic Niche Modeling. Int J Primatol (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10764-023-00374-7

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