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Predicted changes in the distribution of Ostracoda (Crustacea) from river basins in the southern cone of South America, under two climate change scenarios

  • TRENDS IN AQUATIC ECOLOGY IV
  • Published:
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Abstract

While many studies predict changes in the distribution of individual species as a result of climate change, few studies have assessed such changes at the community level for aquatic invertebrates. We used ostracods (bivalved micro-crustaceans) to assess the effects of climate change on regional species richness, (re-) distribution and community composition across the river basins of the Southern Cone of South America. Using a range of niche-based models, we present projections of changes in diversity components in the light of two scenarios on increased carbon emissions: the moderate-optimistic (RCP 4.5) and the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios from four climate models on 2050 and 2080 scenarios. Future projections show increase in the number of (mapped) cells with a richness up to five species as compared to present-day situations. La Plata basin (LPLA) presents the highest species loss, mainly in the Paraguay and Paraná rivers, while the species gain occurred mainly in the La Puna Region, North Chile-Pacific Coast and southern LPLA basins. Global change might impact ostracod communities even on a medium term (2050). Despite losses of local species in all future scenarios, a small portion of the LPLA was identified as a potential future climatic refugia for ostracod communities, while the distribution area in Patagonia was predicted to be extremely small for some ostracods at the southernmost parts of South Argentina-South Atlantic Coast and South Chile-Pacific Coast basins in both futures. These results indicate that non-model organisms can also contribute greatly to formulate evidence-based management plans for aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Centre of Research in Limnology, Ichthyology and Aquaculture (Núcleo de Pesquisas em Limnologia, Ictiologia e Aquicultura-Nupélia), the Graduate Program on Ecology of Inland Water Ecosystems (Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais – PEA) of the State University of Maringá (Universidade Estadual de Maringá-UEM) for the logistic support and the Federal University of Technology – Paraná (UTFPR), Campus Campo Mourão for granting technical cooperation agreements with Nupélia (ACT 021/2019; ACT 018/2019). We would like to thank the "Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Fundação Araucária de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico do Estado do Paraná, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (FINEP)/CT-HIDRO" for financial support of several projects, including the programs "Sistema Nacional de Pesquisa em Biodiversidade (SISBIOTA), Programa de Pesquisa Ecológica de Longa Duração (PELD-PIAP, sitio 6), Programa de Apoio aos Núcleos de Excelência (PRONEX)". EOC, TM and RC would like to thank CAPES for granting their doctorate scholarships, DB thanks CNPq/PDS for the post-doctoral fellowship and JH thanks CNPq for the research productivity grant. The State University of Maringá (Maringá, Brazil) and the Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (Brussels, Belgium) have a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding regarding collaborative Scientific Research.

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Author notes

  1. Dayani Bailly and Janet Higuti share the position as senior authors.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre of Biological Sciences (CCB), Department of Biology (DBI), Graduate Program in Ecology of Inland Water Ecosystems (PEA), State University of Maringá (UEM), Av. Colombo, 5790, Maringá, PR, CEP 87020-900, Brazil

    Eliezer de Oliviera da Conceição, Tatiane Mantovano, Ramiro de Campos, Edivando Vitor do Couto, Dayani Bailly & Janet Higuti

  2. Department of Biodiversity and Nature Conservation (DABIC), Federal University of Technology – Paraná (UTFPR), Via Rosalina Maria Dos Santos,1233, Campo Mourão, PR, CEP 87301-899, Brazil

    Edivando Vitor do Couto & José Hilário Delconte Ferreira

  3. Department of Ecology, Federal University of Goiás, 131, Goiânia, GO, CEP 74001-970, Brazil

    Thiago Fernando Rangel

  4. Natural Environments, Freshwater Biology, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Vautierstraat 29, 1000, Brussels, Belgium

    Koen Martens

  5. Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000, Ghent, Belgium

    Koen Martens

  6. Centre of Biological Sciences (CCB), Centre of Research in Limnology, Ichthyology and Aquaculture (Nupélia), State University of Maringá (UEM), Av. Colombo, 5790, Maringá, PR, CEP 87020-900, Brazil

    Dayani Bailly & Janet Higuti

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  1. Eliezer de Oliviera da Conceição
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Contributions

KM, DB and JH conceptualized the study and assisted in the writing. Eliezer de Oliveira da Conceição collected the data, performed the analyses, and produced various drafts of the manuscript. Tatiane Mantovano, Ramiro de Campos, Edivando Vitor do Couto, José Hilário Delconte Ferreira and Thiago Fernando Rangel assisted the first author in the collection of data and provided background during many discussions.

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Correspondence to Koen Martens.

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The authors declare that they have no competing or conflicting financial or nonfinancial interests. All species used in this study are neither CITES-listed species nor endangered species according to Red Lists and as no additional sampling was done for this paper, no special sampling permissions were necessary for taking samples.

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da Conceição, E., Mantovano, T., de Campos, R. et al. Predicted changes in the distribution of Ostracoda (Crustacea) from river basins in the southern cone of South America, under two climate change scenarios. Hydrobiologia 850, 1443–1460 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-023-05144-3

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