Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

GeoJournal Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, c1imate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 “macro-regions”. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the c1imate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • J. Alcamo R. Leemans E. Kreileman (1998) Global Change Scenarios of the 21st century. Results from the IMAGE 2.1 model. Pergamon & Elseviers Science London 296

    Google Scholar 

  • A.F. Bouwman I. Fung E. Matthews J. John (1993) ArticleTitleGlobal analysis of the potential for N2O production in natural soils. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7 557–597

    Google Scholar 

  • A.F. Bouwman J.A. Taylor C. Kroeze (2000) ArticleTitleTesting hypotheses on global emissions of nitrous oxide using atmospheric models. Chemosphere–Global Change 2 475–492

    Google Scholar 

  • CPB 1999: WorldScan: The Core Version. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Hague 137 pp.

  • W. Cramer D.W. Kicklighter A. Bondeau B. Moore C. Churkina B. Nemry A. Ruimy A.L. Schloss (1999) ArticleTitleComparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): overview and key results Global Change Biology 5 IssueID1 1–15

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO 2000: Agriculture towards 2015/30. Technical Interim Report X7027/E, Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.

  • Hilderink H.B.M, 1999: Population in transition: an integrated regional modeling framework. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Groningen, Groningen (in press).

  • J.T. Houghton Y. Ding D. Griggs M. Noguer Particlevan P.J. Dai X. der Linden K. Maskell C.A. Johnson (Eds) (2001) The Science of Climate Change Cambridge University Press Cambridge, 881 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • IMAGE team, 2001a: The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios: a comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century. RIVM CD-ROM Publication 481508018, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven.

  • IMAGE team 2001b: The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios: climate change scenarios resulting from runs with several GCMs. RIVM CD-ROM Publication 481508019, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven.

  • InstitutionalAuthorNameIPCC (1997) Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change/Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • InstitutionalAuthorNameIPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: synthesis report Cambridge University Press Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • M. Kainuma Y. Matsuoka T. Morita (2002) Climate Policy Assessment: Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling Tokyo Springer

    Google Scholar 

  • G.J.J. Kreileman A.F. Bouwman (1994) ArticleTitleComputing land use emissions of greenhouse gases Water Air Soil Pollution 76 231–258

    Google Scholar 

  • Lashof D.A. and Tirpak D.A., 1990: Policy Options for Stabilizing global climate. Report to Congress. Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Washington D.C. 545 pp.

  • R. Leemans B.J. Eickhout B. Strengers A.F. Bouwman M. Schaeffer (2002) ArticleTitleThe consequences for the terrestrial carbon cycle of uncertainties in land use, climate and vegetation responses in the IPCC SRES scenarios Science in China, Series C. 45 126–136

    Google Scholar 

  • J. Leggett W.J. Pepper R.J. Swart (1992) Emissions scenarios for the IPCC: an update. J.T. Houghton B.A. Callander S.K. Varney (Eds) Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press Cambridge. 71–95

    Google Scholar 

  • A.R. Mosier C. Kroeze C. Nevison O. Oenema S. Seitzinger O.V. Cleemput (1998) ArticleTitleClosing the global atmospheric N2O budget: nitrous oxide emissions through the agricultural nitrogen cycle Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 52 225–248

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakicenovic N., Alcamo J. Davis G. de Vries B. Fenhann J. Gaffin S. Gregory K., Grübler A., Jung T.Y., Kram T., Emilio la Rovere E., Michaelis L., Mori S., Morita T., Pepper W., Pitcher H., Price L. Riahi K. Roehrl A. Rogner H.H., Sankovski A., Schlesinger M., Shukla P., Smith S., Swart R., van Rooyen S., Victor N. and Dadi Z., 2000: Special Report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599 pp.

  • WRR 1992: Grond voor keuzen. Vier perspectieven voor de landelijke gebieden in de Europesche Gemeenschap. Rapporten aan de Regering 34, Den Haag, 147 pp.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bart Strengers.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Strengers, B., Leemans, R., Eickhout, B. et al. The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model. GeoJournal 61, 381–393 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-004-5054-8

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-004-5054-8

Keywords

Navigation