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Agriculture, food security, and climate change in South Asia: a new perspective on sustainable development

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Abstract

The South Asian region has faced multiple challenges in the last few decades. This region is susceptible to climate change due to the presence of both drought-prone and coastal areas. It also faces the problem of increasing food-insecurity due to the recent events of crop failure consequent to natural calamities. This study examines the nexus between agricultural production and food security amidst climate change for the South Asian nations from 2000 to 2019. From the empirical investigation, using Driscoll-Kraay and Panel-Corrected Standard Error estimators, we get robust results in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity. The simultaneous equation model using 3SLS is also used for the robustness check, considering the probable endogeneity issue in the model. The findings of the study reveal that agricultural production, fertilizer consumption, and land under cereal production play a substantial and positive role in determining food security in the South Asian nations. Furthermore, the varying rainfall patterns coupled with rising temperature, as well as the increasing level of CO2 emissions are found to impede food security in these nations. Additionally, non-climatic factors related to agriculture and land-use are also found to induce CO2 emissions, which is a major cause of climate change. Therefore, from a policy perspective, this study suggests that to ensure long-term food security in the South Asian nations, the government should implement effective policy measures, which include the decarbonization of the agricultural sector by encouraging the use of renewable energy sources and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices.

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Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Source: Food and Agricultural Organisation Statistics (2019), United Nations

Fig. 3

Source: Our World in Data (2019)

Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The dataset has been compiled from the following secondary sources: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data. https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions. https://databank.worldbank.org. https://www.fao.org/statistics/en/.

Notes

  1. Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations.

Abbreviations

SDG:

Sustainable development goals

CO2 :

Carbon dioxide emissions

GFSI:

Global food security index

FSI:

Food security index

FAVI:

Food availability index

FACI:

Food accessibility index

FSTI:

Food stability index

FUTI:

Food utilisation index

AAR:

Average annual rainfall

AAT:

Average annual temperature

LUCP:

Land under cereal production

AGP:

Agricultural production

FC:

Fertilizer consumption

CPI:

Consumer price index

PCA:

Principal component analysis

CSD:

Cross sectional dependency

CIPS:

Cross-sectionally augmented im-pesaran

CADF:

Covariate augmented dickey fuller

PCSE:

Panel corrected standard error estimator

DSK:

Driscoll-Kraay estimator

VIF:

Variance-Inflation factor

ARDL:

Autoregressive distributed lag

FGLS:

Feasible generalised least square

FMOLS:

Fully modified ordinary least square

DOLS:

Dynamic ordinary least square

IPCC:

Intergovernmental panel on climate change

SOFI:

State of food security and nutrition in the world

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Acknowledgements

The authors give due credit to the Climate Change Knowledge Bank and the World Development Indicators of the World Bank for making their data sources accessible. The authors also acknowledge the secondary data made available on food security by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations. Finally, the authors acknowledge the help of their friends and co-workers. No funds were allocated to support the study in any way.

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Appendix

Appendix

See Fig. 5 and Tables, 8, 9 and 10.

Fig. 5
figure 5

Study area map Notes: The map shows the food Security index score of the selected South Asian countries as per the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). The score for Afghanistan is indicated as zero because GFSI does not have the data for Afghanistan. Source: Global Food Security Index, 2022.

Table 8 Food security indicators.
Table 9 Correlation matrix
Table 10 Diagnostic test result

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Behera, B., Haldar, A. & Sethi, N. Agriculture, food security, and climate change in South Asia: a new perspective on sustainable development. Environ Dev Sustain (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03552-y

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