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Environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation in Eastern Europe: a panel cointegration analysis

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Abstract

Deforestation, a major cause of climate change, in Eastern European countries has been an activity coupled with agricultural expansion mainly within the time period of political transition. The present study examines the environmental impact of deforestation and its association with agricultural income as synopsized in environmental Kuznets curve. More specifically, carbon emissions generated by deforestation per hectare (COD)–agricultural income relationship as reflected by the net value added (NVA) per capita of the rural population are studied with the assistance of three panel data models, namely the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and Poold Mean Group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) cointegration technique. The research findings do not validate the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in its traditional form, but they verify the inverse N-shaped trajectory (FMOLS, DOLS), or N-shaped trajectory (PMG–ARDL methodology). The results provide policy makers with motivation to focus on agro-economic expansion based on productivity or use of marginal lands and not on land-use change based on deforestation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Development, Democritus University of Thrace, 68200, Orestiada, Greece

    Eleni Zafeiriou

  2. School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Division of Electric Power, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), 15780, Athens, Greece

    Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos

  3. Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, 68200, Orestiada, Greece

    Veronika Andrea & Garyfallos Arabatzis

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  1. Eleni Zafeiriou
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  2. Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos
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  3. Veronika Andrea
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  4. Garyfallos Arabatzis
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EZ has conceptualized the research theme and employed the methodologies used. GLK has undertaken the literature review and V.A. did the data mining and assessment. GA conducted the validation of the analysis findings. All authors contributed in the writing—review and editing process. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Appendix

Appendix

The countries included in the sample are the following;

Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. Table 2 illustrates the descriptive statistics of the variables employed in the present study.

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Zafeiriou, E., Kyriakopoulos, G.L., Andrea, V. et al. Environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation in Eastern Europe: a panel cointegration analysis. Environ Dev Sustain 25, 9267–9287 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02435-y

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