Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modeling distribution changes of vegetation in China under future climate change

  • Published:
Environmental Modeling & Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climatic change will result in great changes in vegetation. In this paper, a biogeographical model, the BIOME1, was used to predict potential vegetation distribution in China under climate change. Firstly, the BIOME1 was validated according to the climate–vegetation relationships in China. Kappa statistics showed that the validated BIOME1 was able to capture the geographical patterns of vegetation more accurately. Then, the validated BIOME1 was used to predict the distribution of vegetation of China under two climatic scenarios produced by a Regional Circulation Model, RegCM2/CN. The simulation results showed obvious northward shifts of the boreal, temperate deciduous and evergreen and tropical forests, a large expansion of tropical dry forest/savanna and reduction of tundra on the Tibetan Plateau. Three vulnerable regions sensitive to climate changes are pointed out, i.e., Northern China, the Tibetan Plateau and Southwestern China (mainly Hengduan Mountains in Yunnan Province and west of Sichuan Province). In recent decades, China has experienced dramatic industrialization and population growth, which exert strong pressure on the environment of China. The consequences of climate changes warrant more attention for maintaining a sustainable environment for China.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. F.I. Woodward, Climate and Plant Distribution (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1987).

    Google Scholar 

  2. IPCC, Climate change 1994: Radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emissions scenarios. Reports of Working Group I and III of the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1995).

    Google Scholar 

  3. IPCC, Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Contribution of WG1 to the Second Assessment Report of the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996).

    Google Scholar 

  4. IPCC, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of WG1 to the Third Assessment Report of the Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001).

    Google Scholar 

  5. T. Yue, J. Liu, S.E. Jorgensen, Z. Gao, S. Zhang and X. Deng, Ecol. Model. 144 (2001) 153–162.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. W.P. Cramer and R. Leemans, in: Vegetation Dynamics and Global Change, eds. A.M. Solomon and H.H. Shugart (Chapman & Hall, New York, 1993) pp. 190–217.

    Google Scholar 

  7. A.P. Kirilenko and A.M. Solomon, Clim. Change 38 (1998) 15–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. L.R. Holdridge, Science 105 (1947) 367–368.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. L.R. Holdridge, Life Zone Ecology (Tropical Science Center. San Jose, Costa Rica, 1967).

    Google Scholar 

  10. M.T. Sykes, I.C. Prentice and F. Laarif, Clim. Change 41 (1999) 37–52.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. J.A. Foley, I.C. Prentice, N. Ramankutty, S. Levis, D. Pollard, S. Sitch and A. Haxeltine, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 10 (1996) 603–628.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. S. Sitch, B. Smith, I.C. Prentice, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, W. Cramer, J.O. Kaplan, S. Levis, W. Lucht, M.T. Sykes, K. Thonicke and S. Venevsky, Glob. Chang. Biol. 9 (2003) 161–185.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. G.B. Bonan, S. Levis, S. Sitch, M. Vertenstein and K.W. Oleson, Glob. Chang. Biol. 9 (2003) 1543–1566.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. D.N. Yates, T.G.F. Kittel and R.F. Cannon, Clim. Change 44 (2000) 59–87.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Z.Y. Yang, G.S. Zhou and D.A. Yang, Acta Phytoecologica Sinica 27 (2003) 587–593. (in Chinese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  16. C. Fu and G. Wen, Clim. Change 43 (1999) 477–494.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. H. Tian, J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, S. Pan, J. Liu, A.D. McGuire and B. Moore III, Glob. Planet. Change 37 (2003) 201–217.

    Google Scholar 

  18. I.C. Prentice, W. Cramer, S.P. Harrison, R. Leemans, R.A. Monserud and A.M. Solomon, J. Biogeogr. 19 (1992) 117–134.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. A. Haxeltine, I.C. Prentice, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 10 (1996) 693–709.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. J.O. Kaplan, N.H. Bigelow, I.C. Prentice, S.P. Harrison, P.J. Bartlein, T.R. Christensen, W. Cramer, N.V. Matveyeva, A.D. McGuire, D.F. Murray, V.Y. Razzhivin, B. Smith, D.A. Walker, P.M. Anderson, A.A. Andreev, L.B. Brubaker, M.E. Edwards and A.V. Lozhkin, J. Geophys. Res. 108 (2003), doi:10.1029/2002JD002559.

  21. I.C. Prentice and T. Webb III, J. Biogeogr. 25 (1998) 997–1005.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. M. Claussen and M. Esch, Clim. Dyn. 9 (1994) 235–243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. M. Claussen, Clim. Dyn. 12 (1996) 371–379.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. M. Claussen, Clim. Dyn. 13 (1997) 247–257.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. J. Kutzbach, R. Gallimore, S. Harrison, P. Behling, R. Selin and F. Laarif, Quat. Sci. Rev. 17 (1998) 473–506.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. I.R. Noble and H. Gitay, J. Veg. Sci. 7 (1996) 329–336.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. F.I. Woodward and W. Cramer, J. Veg. Sci. 7 (1996) 306–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. X. Chen, X.S. Zhang and B.L. Li, Glob. Planet. Change 38 (2003) 327–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. J. Ni, M.T. Sykes, I.C. Prentice and W. Cramer, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 9 (2000) 463–479.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. M.S. Zhao, R.P. Neilson, X.D. Yan and W.J. Dong, Acta Geogr. Sin. 57 (2002) 28–38. (in Chinese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  31. H.S. Chang, Annals of Missouri Botanical Garden 70 (1983) 564–570.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. E.O. Box, Macroclimate and Plant Forms: An Introduction in Predictive Modeling in Phytogeography, Dr W. Junk, The Hague, 1981.

  33. X.J. Gao, Y.H. Ding, Z.C. Zhao, R.H. Huang and F. Giorgi, Acta Meteorol. Sin. 61 (2003) 20–28. (in Chinese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  34. X.J. Gao, Y.H. Ding, Z.C. Zhao, R.H. Huang and F. Giorgi, Acta Meteorol. Sin. 61 (2003) 29–38. (in Chinese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  35. F. Giorgi, M.R. Marinucci and G.T. Bates, Mon. Weather Rev. 121 (1993) 2794–2813.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. F. Giorgi, M.R. Marinucci and G.T. Bates, Mon. Weather Rev. 121 (1993) 2814–2832.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. H.Y. Hou, Vegetation Map of P.R. China(1:4, 000, 000) (Map, Beijing, 1982).

    Google Scholar 

  38. C.Y. Wu, eds. Vegetation of China (Science, Beijing, 1980). (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  39. J.Y. Fang, Y.C. Song, H.Y. Liu and S.L. Piao, Acta Bot. Sin. 44 (2002) 1105–1122.

    Google Scholar 

  40. Chinese Central Meteorological Office Meteorological Data of China (Meteorology, Beijing, 1984).

  41. J. Cohen, Educ. Psychol. Meas. 20 (1960) 37–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. R.S. Monserud and R. Leemans, Ecol. Model. 62 (1992) 275–293.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. X. Zhang, D. Yang, G. Zhou, C. Liu and J. Zhang, in: Climate Change and Plants in East Asia, eds. K. Omasa, K. Kai, H. Taoda, (Springer, Tokyo 1996) pp. 25–38.

    Google Scholar 

  44. J. Ni, Mt. Res. Dev. 20 (2000) 80–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, White book: Environmental Protection in China, 1996. http://www.china.org.cn/e-white/environment/.

  46. Z.Z. Chen, S.P. Wang, eds., The Typical Steppe Ecosystems of China (Scientific, Beijing, 2000) p. 1.

    Google Scholar 

  47. J. Ni, Acta Bot. Sin. 43 (2001) 419–425.

    Google Scholar 

  48. H.Y. Hou, Annals of Missouri Botanical Garden 70 (1983) 509–548.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093, People’s Republic of China

    En-sheng Weng & Guang-sheng Zhou

  2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100039, People’s Republic of China

    En-sheng Weng

Authors
  1. En-sheng Weng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Guang-sheng Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guang-sheng Zhou.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Weng, Es., Zhou, Gs. Modeling distribution changes of vegetation in China under future climate change. Environ Model Assess 11, 45–58 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-005-9019-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-005-9019-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation