Abstract
Frog population declines have already been observed in the central Amazon even for common species that are considered not to be in danger of extinction. The Amazon is close to its limit of tolerated deforestation, and parts of the forest have already been modified by climate change, which raises questions about how the fauna in these areas would adapt to climate changes by the middle and the end of this century. In this study we used population density data on seven species of Amazonian frogs and analyzed the relationship between the activity of these species and temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. We also used the least-squares method with logarithmic models to assess whether climate change projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be an indicator of the population dynamics of these species. Our results suggest that even common species may be may experience population declines and extinction in the next decades due to climate changes.
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Acknowledgments
We are especially grateful to Professor Marcelo Menin of the Federal University of Amazonas, who kindly provided the data collected in the Adolpho Ducke Reserve and who was part of this study until he passed away from COVID-19 in 2021; his contribution was invaluable to herpetology, and his death is an irreparable loss.
Funding
L.F. thanks the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) – Finance Code 001. P.M.F. thanks CNPq (Proc. 312,450/2021–4) and the Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change (FINEP/Rede CLIMA, Proc. 01.13.0353–00).
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Marcelo Menin is deceased. This paper is dedicated to his/her memory.
- Marcelo Menin
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L.F. designed the research; D.R. and M.M. conducted fieldwork and examined material; L.F. conducted statistical analyses; L.F., D.R. and P.M.F. wrote the manuscript; L.F., D.R. and P.M.F. revised the manuscript.
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Ferrante, L., Rojas-Ahumada, D., Menin, M. et al. Climate change in the Central Amazon and its impacts on frog populations. Environ Monit Assess 195, 1421 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11997-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11997-x