Abstract
The rebirth of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) programme have necessitated the study as it has a vast potential to promote economic growth, yet, marred with numerous energy use and ecological concerns. The article is the first to comparatively examine the impact of economic variables on consumption-based CO2 emissions in the BRI and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries by testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH). The Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimates the results. Income (GDP) and GDP2 positively and negatively impact CO2 emissions in the three panels, validating the EKC. Foreign direct investment (FDI) significantly affects CO2 emissions for the global and BRI panels, supporting the PHH. However, the PHH is refuted for the OECD panel as the impact of FDI on CO2 emissions is negative and statistically significant. GDP and GDP2 decline by 0.029% and 0.0446%, respectively, for BRI countries, compared to OECD countries. It is recommended that BRI countries enact new and stringent environmental laws and use more tidal energy, solar energy, wind power, bioenergy, and hydropower instead of fossil fuels, for the sustainable attainment of higher economic growth, devoid of pollution.
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Source: https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
Source: Rockefeller Foundation. http//rockefellerfoundation.org/app/uploads/vulnerable-natural-infrastructure-in-urban-coastal-zones.pdf
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Data availability
Data and materials availability: The data is housed in freely searchable sources. The data utilized for this investigation are freely accessible online at https://www.iea.org/ (International Energy Agency) and https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators/preview/on (World Development Indicators).
Notes
The past industrial revolution was led by western countries, most of whom today are wealthy and form the OECD. The economic rise of China and the rebirth of the Belt and Road sets the agenda for a new industrial revolution which could further stifle global climate mitigation efforts and targets.
Figure 1 shows the sharp rise in the global CO2 concentration.
See Fig. 2 for the historical representation of the global total energy consumption over the period.
The dotted points in the map represent coastal cities of more than 1 million people (see Fig. 3).
The consumption-based carbon emanations are both a reflection of the country’s dependence on overseas production to meet domestic demand and the intensity of overseas production’s emissions. That is to say, consumption-based carbon emanations give a much more precise picture of a country’s carbon footprint as it prevents the spread of a country’s carbon footprint to other nations.
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The study conception, design, material preparation, data collection, analysis, and first draft of the manuscript were performed by Maxwell Kongkuah who also read and approved the final manuscript.
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Highlights
• CO2 emissions are reduced as nations’ economic growth increases
• Belt and Road Countries are pollution havens
• Clean and renewable energy forms are required to reduce CO2 emissions.
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Kongkuah, M. Impact of economic variables on CO2 emissions in belt and road and OECD countries. Environ Monit Assess 195, 835 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11440-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11440-1