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Future climate projections using the LARS-WG6 downscaling model over Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

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Abstract

This study investigates the projections of precipitation and temperature at the local scale in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Pakistan using six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). For twenty-four stations spread across the study area, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator, version six (LARS-WG6), was used to downscale the daily data from the six different RCMs for maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation (pr) at a spatial resolution of 0.44°. Investigations were made to predict changes in mean annual values of Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation during two future periods, i.e., the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100). The model results from statistical and graphical comparison validated that the LARS-WG6 can simulate the temperature and the precipitation in the UIB. Each of the six RCMs and their ensemble revealed a continuously increased temperature projection in the basin; nevertheless, there is variation in projected magnitude across RCMs and between RCPs. The rise in average Tmax and Tmin was more significant under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, possibly due to unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The precipitation projections follow the non-uniform trend, i.e., not all RCMs agree on whether the precipitation will increase or decrease in the basin, and no orderly variations were detected during any future periods under any RCP. However, an overall increase in precipitation is projected by the ensemble of RCMs.

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Data availability

• The CORDEX data used in the study is available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/

• The data used for the analysis in this study was obtained from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), but restrictions apply to the availability of the data, which was used under permission for the current study only, and is not publicly available.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of Pakistan for providing the meteorological data used in this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan

    Summera Fahmi Khan & Usman Ali Naeem

  2. COMSATS University Islamabad, Wah Campus, Wah Cantt, Pakistan

    Summera Fahmi Khan

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  1. Summera Fahmi Khan
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All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Data collection and analysis were performed by Summera Fahmi Khan. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Summera Fahmi Khan. The draft was reviewed and edited by Dr. Usman Ali Naeem.

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Correspondence to Summera Fahmi Khan.

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Appendix

Appendix

Fig. 8
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Box Plots for Comparison of Observed and Generated Tmax, Tmin and precipitation for 24 stations of the study area during Calibration Period

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Fig. 9
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Box Plots for Comparison of Observed and Generated Tmax, Tmin and precipitation for 24 stations of the study area during Validation Period

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Khan, S.F., Naeem, U.A. Future climate projections using the LARS-WG6 downscaling model over Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Environ Monit Assess 195, 810 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11419-y

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