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Non-stationary evaluation of runoff peaks in response to climate variability and land use change in Ferson Creek, Illinois, USA

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine how surface runoff affects public safety and urban infrastructure worldwide and how human activity has significantly altered the frequency and magnitude of these events. We investigate this issue in Ferson Creek, IL, USA. Our study focuses on three specific areas of impact: (1) the primary reasons for a considerable increase in average runoff peaks, using annual maximum runoff discharge and annual maximum precipitation and temperature to evaluate the role of climate variability; (2) the effect of land use change on runoff peaks by coupling dominant land use categories with annual maximum runoff discharge; and (3) the use of return level plots as a reference to explore the watershed’s sensitivity to land use change. Our findings indicate that land use change has a greater effect on runoff peak values than climate variability in our region of interest. The agricultural areas of Ferson Creek have been most affected by the rapid transformation of about 20% of their land into developed areas. Although agricultural areas can sometimes intensify runoff peaks, their reduction has led to excessive runoff discharges in Ferson Creek, as they have higher relative infiltration capacity than developed areas. We conclude that each watershed has its own fingerprint in terms of the connection between its land use types and hydrological patterns and that the region is most sensitive to the percentage of forests. These results are essential for improving infrastructure design and risk estimation methods in the region of interest.

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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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  1. School of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

    Nasim Sadra & Nasser Talebbeydokhti

  2. College of Engineering, Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman

    Mohammad Reza Nikoo

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  1. Nasim Sadra
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N.S.: software, validation, methodology, investigation, resources, data curation, writing—original draft, visualization; M.R.N.: conceptualization, project administration, supervision, methodology, software, conceptualization, methodology, writing—review and editing; N.T.B.: conceptualization, resources, writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Mohammad Reza Nikoo.

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Sadra, N., Nikoo, M.R. & Talebbeydokhti, N. Non-stationary evaluation of runoff peaks in response to climate variability and land use change in Ferson Creek, Illinois, USA. Environ Monit Assess 195, 661 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11238-1

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