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Model of ecological resilience in Hyrcanian forests that combines the decision-making trial and evaluation method (DEMATEL) and system dynamics

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Abstract

The present study assessed the resilience model of Hyrcanian forests with Navroud-Asalem watershed as a case study. The Navroud-Assalem watershed was selected for study because of its special environmental characteristics and access to relatively acceptable information. In order to model resilience, the appropriate indices influencing resilience in Hyrcanian forests were identified and selected. The criteria of biological diversity and forest health and vitality were selected along with the indices of species diversity, forest-type diversity, mixed stands, and the infected area percentage forests with disturbance factors. Thirteen sub-indices and 33 variables were determined and the relationship between the indices and criteria was identified by developing a questionnaire using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The weights of each index were estimated in Vensim software using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Collecting and analyzing the regional information, the conceptual model was developed and formulated quantitatively and mathematically and was entered into Vensim for resilience modeling of the selected parcels. The DEMATEL method indicated that the species diversity indices and the percentage of affected forests had the greatest influence and interaction with other factors in the system. The parcels studied had different slopes and were affected by the input variables. They were considered as resilient if they were found to maintain current conditions. Avoidance of exploitation, infestation by pests, severe fires in the region, and increased livestock grazing compared to the existing situation were among the prerequisites for resilience in the region. Vensim modeling represents that in control parcel no. 232 the nondimensional resilience parameter is 3025 (the most resilient parcel), while in the disturbed parcel no. 278 this amount is 1775 (the least resilient parcel).

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Material and data availability

The authors confirm that the data which support the findings of this study are openly available from the publications of the Iran Forest Institute.

Notes

  1. African Timber Organization Process; Dry Forest in Asia Process; Dry-Zone Africa Process; International Tropical Timber Organization Process; Lepaterique Process of Central America; Montreal Process (Temperate and Boreal Forests); Near East Process; Pan-European Forest Process; Tarapoto Proposal for the Sustainability of the Amazon Forest; Tehran Process Secretariat for Low Forest Cover Countries; Bhopal-India Process.

  2. Program for optimizing the monitoring, preserving, exploiting, and managing the forests in the country during 2013.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Mahdyeh Hajbabaie

  2. Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Seyed Ali Jozi

  3. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Forough Farsad

  4. Department of Environment and Forest Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Hadi Kiadaliri

  5. Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

    Alireza Gharagozlou

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Mahdyeh Hajbabaie drafted the article and made a substantial contribution to the concept and framework of the research, Seyed Ali Jozi (corresponding author) revised the article and made a substantial contribution to the concept and framework of the research, Forough Farsad and Hadi Kiadaliri revised the article and Alireza Gharagozlou approved the version.

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Correspondence to Seyed Ali Jozi.

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Hajbabaie, M., Jozi, S.A., Farsad, F. et al. Model of ecological resilience in Hyrcanian forests that combines the decision-making trial and evaluation method (DEMATEL) and system dynamics. Environ Monit Assess 195, 448 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11054-7

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