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Apply MIKE 11 model to study impacts of climate change on water resources and develop adaptation plan in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: a case of Can Tho city

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Abstract

Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta is in the top ten areas affected by climate change. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts, social and economic activities require proposed solutions to respond to climate change. This study aims to (i) apply the MIKE 11 model (Hydrodynamic module and Advection–Dispersion module) to simulate the impacts of climate change scenarios on water resources in Can Tho city; (ii) calculate water balance in Can Tho city; and (iii) suggest climate change adaptation plan for sustainable social-economic activities of the city. The results show that when the rainfall changes due to climate change, the flow rate tends to decrease at high tide and increase at low tide. When the sea level rises due to climate change, the flow rate tends to increase at high tide and decrease at low tide. For 2030, the flow will decrease up to 15.6% and 14.3% at the low tide period for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 compared to the present, respectively. The flow will increase up to 63.5% and 58.9% at the high tide period for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 compared to the present, respectively. The water demand evaluation shows that the water resource reserve in Can Tho city meets water demands in current and future scenarios under climate change. While rainwater and groundwater can provide enough water in the rainy season, the city has to use surface water during the dry season due to a lack of rainwater. Of these, agriculture contributes the most water demands (85%). Eight adaptation measures to climate change for Can Tho city are developed from 2021 to 2050.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This research is funded by Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City (VNU-HCM) under grant number NVTX TX 2021–24-01. The authors thank Vietnam National University in Ho Chi Minh for providing the fund. The authors thank the Department of Natural resources and Environment of Can Tho City for providing the data and supports.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environment and Resources (IER), 142 To Hien Thanh Street, Ward 14, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Bang Quoc Ho, Khoi Dao Nguyen, Khue Hoang Ngoc Vu, Tam Thoai Nguyen, Hang Thi Thuy Nguyen, Diem Doan Ngoc Ngo, Hien Thi Hong Tran & Nguyen Thi Thao Huynh

  2. Vietnam National University - Ho Chi Minh City (VNU-HCM), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Bang Quoc Ho, Khue Hoang Ngoc Vu, Tam Thoai Nguyen, Hang Thi Thuy Nguyen, Diem Doan Ngoc Ngo, Hien Thi Hong Tran, Quan Hong Nguyen & Nguyen Thi Thao Huynh

  3. Ho Chi Minh City University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Khoi Dao Nguyen

  4. Academy of Politics Region II, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Phuoc Huu Le

  5. IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands

    Nguyen Thi Thao Huynh

  6. Institute for Circular Economy Development (ICED), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Quan Hong Nguyen

  7. Department of Environmental Management and Technology, Institute of Tropical Biology, Academy of Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Quang Xuan Ngo

  8. Department of Planning, Industry & Environment, Sydney, Australia

    Hiep Duc Nguyen

Authors
  1. Bang Quoc Ho
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  2. Khoi Dao Nguyen
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  3. Khue Hoang Ngoc Vu
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  4. Tam Thoai Nguyen
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  5. Hang Thi Thuy Nguyen
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  6. Diem Doan Ngoc Ngo
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  7. Hien Thi Hong Tran
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  8. Phuoc Huu Le
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  9. Quan Hong Nguyen
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  10. Quang Xuan Ngo
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  11. Nguyen Thi Thao Huynh
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  12. Hiep Duc Nguyen
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Contributions

Conceptualization, BH; methodology, KN, QN, BH; data procurement: HN, BH, TN, HTN; formal analysis, KV, KD, LP, DNN; investigation, HN, BH; writing—original draft preparation, THN, HN, BH; visualization, HN; supervision, BH and QN; and project administration, KV.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bang Quoc Ho.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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This article belongs to the Topical Collection on Environmental sustainability and impacts of climate change in the Mekong delta region.

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Ho, B.Q., Nguyen, K.D., Vu, K.H.N. et al. Apply MIKE 11 model to study impacts of climate change on water resources and develop adaptation plan in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: a case of Can Tho city. Environ Monit Assess 194 (Suppl 2), 765 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10185-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10185-7

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