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Possible options to slow down the advancement rate of Tarbela delta

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Abstract

The pivot point of delta in Tarbela dam has reached at about 10.6 km from the dam face which may result in blocking of tunnels. Tarbela delta was modeled from 1979 to 2060 using hec-6 model. Initially, the model was calibrated for year 1999 and validated for years 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2006 by involving the data of sediment concentration, reservoir cross sections (73 range lines), elevation-area capacity curves, and inflows and outflows from the reservoir. Then, the model was used to generate future scenarios, i.e., run-1, run-2, and run-3 with pool levels; 428, 442, and 457 m, respectively, till 2060. Results of run-1 and run-2 showed advancement to choke the tunnels by 2010 and 2030, respectively. Finally, in run-3, the advancement was further delayed showing that tunnels 1 and 2 will be choked by year 2050 and pivot point will reach at 6.4 km from the dam face.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are highly thankful to the directors of Project Monitoring Organization (PMO), Surface Water Hydrology Project (SWHP), and Dam Safety Organization (DSO) of WAPDA Pakistan for providing necessary data related to the Tarbela reservoir including sediment concentration, daily flows, reservoir cross sections, elevation-area-capacity curves, and inflows and outflows from the reservoir etc.

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Correspondence to Usman Ali Naeem.

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Habib-ur-Rehman, Rehman, M.A., Naeem, U.A. et al. Possible options to slow down the advancement rate of Tarbela delta. Environ Monit Assess 190, 39 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6376-6

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