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Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan

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Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976–2005) and future (2006–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the project of Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) titled “Towards robust projections of climate extremes and adaptation plans over South Asia: CRRP2018-04MY-Ali”. We also acknowledge the support of the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), National Institute of Health (NIH), and Health Services Academy (HSA) Islamabad. We also acknowledge the support by Ratchadapisek Somphot Fund for Postdoctoral Fellowship, Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Funding

All the funding of the project has been utilized during research work and currently we have no funds available.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Alia Saeed & Ramesh Kumar

  2. Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Shaukat Ali & Muhammad Arif Goheer

  3. School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan

    Firdos Khan

  4. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal

    Sher Muhammad

  5. Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI), Itajubá, Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Michelle Simões Reboita

  6. Federal Government Polyclinic (PGMI), Islamabad, Pakistan

    Abdul Wali Khan

  7. National Institute of Health, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Mumtaz Ali Khan, Aamer Ikram & Aliya Jabeen

  8. College of Public Health Sciences, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

    Ramesh Kumar & Sathirakorn Pongpanich

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  1. Alia Saeed
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Contributions

AS contributed to conceptualization; SA contributed to design methodology; FK did formal analysis; SM contributed to data curation and investigation; MSR and AWK contributed to writing—original draft; MAG and MAK contributed to writing—review and editing and visualization; AJ contributed to resources and writing—review and editing; RK contributed to resources and writing—review and editing; SP and AI contributed to writing—review and editing and supervision.

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Correspondence to Ramesh Kumar.

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Saeed, A., Ali, S., Khan, F. et al. Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan. Environ Geochem Health 45, 3489–3505 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10653-022-01429-z

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