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Dynamic Climate Policy Under Firm Relocation: The Implications of Phasing Out Free Allowances

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Abstract

The allocation of free allowances for firms within the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme was found to lead to substantial overcompensation, which is why some stakeholders recently called for phasing out of free allowances in the near term. This paper analyzes the consequences of phasing out free allowances in a two-period model when one country unilaterally implements climate policies. A carbon price induces firms to invest in abatement capital, but may lead to the relocation of some firms. The regulator addresses the relocation problem by offering firms transfers, i.e. free allowances, conditional on maintaining the production in the regulating country. If transfers are unrestricted in both periods, then the regulator implements the first best by equalizing the carbon price with the marginal environmental damage and using transfers to prevent any relocation. However, if transfers in the future period are restricted, the planner optimally implements a declining carbon price path with the first period price exceeding the marginal environmental damage. A high carbon price triggers investments in abatement capital and thus creates a lock-in effect. With a larger abatement capital stock, firms are less affected by carbon prices in the future and therefore less prone to relocate in the second period.

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Notes

  1. During the stakeholder consultation regarding the carbon leakage list organized by the EU in 2014, 61% of civil stakeholders consider the allocation of free allowances as problematic. In particular, environmental NGOs such as Climate Action Network, Greenpeace and Worldwide Fund for Nature would like to replace free allowances by full auctioning in the next trading period.

  2. EU (2009): Directive 2009/29/EC, Article 10a, 11.

  3. Ibid, Article 10a, 15.

  4. Ibid, Article 10a, 16.

  5. Ibid, Article 10a, 13.

  6. Ibid, Article 10a, 12.

  7. In the first stakeholder consultation ‘some 29% of civil society respondents expressed their preference for no more free allocation after 2020, while 25% believe the share of allowances dedicated to carbon leakage and competitiveness should be lower than in 2013–2020’ (European Commission 2014, p. 9).

  8. Taylor (2005) distinguishes between the pollution haven effect according to which tightening environmental standards leads to a shift of investments towards countries with laxer environmental regulation and the pollution haven hypothesis where abolishing trade barriers causes the shift of capital flows.

  9. Implicitly, each firm is a monopolist, facing an inverse demand function that is a step function, where the price equals 1 up to the quantity of 1 and drops to 0 afterward. By assuming this, it can be abstracted from any loss of competitiveness due to carbon taxation, which allows for focusing on the interaction between relocation and carbon pricing.

  10. In the following, \(f'(\cdot )\) and \(f''(\cdot )\) denote the first and second derivative of the function \(f(\cdot )\) with respect to its argument.

  11. This assumption is not crucial for the results, but makes the subsequent analysis more tractable. Implicitly, it is assumed that the new technology cannot be transferred to country B at zero costs, implying the relocating firm to have no incentive to install the more efficient technology in country B.

  12. Assuming inter-dependencies between short-term abatement and investments in abatement capital would make the analysis more complex without affecting the key results.

  13. If actual emissions were negative, firms would benefit from carbon pricing and thus would never relocate to country B. Alternatively, I could assume that \(\lim \nolimits _{q \rightarrow (1/2) {\bar{\epsilon }}}\gamma '(q) = \infty\) and \(\lim \nolimits _{k \rightarrow (1/2){\bar{\epsilon }}}\kappa '(k) = \infty\) in order to guarantee actual emissions to be positive.

  14. If the regulator could not commit to its future policy, then the ratchet effect would add to the model to the extent that the regulator may set very high carbon prices after observing firms’ investments in abatement capital. This mechanism was partly studied by Petrakis and Xepapadeas (2003).

  15. In the following, lower case letters always refer to variables in the first and capital letters to variables in the second period.

  16. In addition, Böhringer et al. (2012) show that carbon tariffs can even harm the domestic industry if the import share of embodied carbon is very high, which leads to an increase in costs for the energy-intensive industry.

  17. If banking and borrowing was allowed, then carbon prices would equalize across the periods due to the arbitrage of firms, preventing the regulator from differentiating carbon prices across periods by setting the caps accordingly.

  18. Relocation is assumed to be once and for all so that the location plan BA is excluded.

  19. Using the implicit functions theorem leads to \(q_{AA}^*{'}(p) = q_{AB}^*{'}(p)= 1/\gamma {''}(q)>0\) and \(Q_{AA}^*{'}(P) = 1/\gamma {''}(Q)>0\).

  20. Using the implicit functions theorem yields \(k_{AB}^*{'}(p) = 1/\kappa {''}(k)>0\) and \(k_{AA}^*{'}(p+P) = 1/\kappa {''}(k)>0\).

  21. When firms are (partially) owned by foreigners, Hoel (1997) shows that carbon taxes imply a transfer from the foreign firm owners to the government or local residents. Hence, in the presence of foreign firm ownership, we would expect carbon taxes to be higher than in this model.

  22. The parameter \(\psi\) can also be interpreted as political shadow price that the citizens of the home country accept for a marginal increase of emissions.

  23. If AB firms were to transfer their abatement capital to country B, then the welfare contribution of one AB firm would alter to \(W_{AB}(p,\theta ) = 2 - \kappa (k_{AB}^*(p)) - \gamma (q_{AB}^*(p)) - \theta - \psi \cdot (2 {\bar{\epsilon }} - 2 k_{AB}^*(p) - q_{AA}^*(p))\), meaning that there would be less environmental damage because the transferred abatement capital also lowers emissions in the second period when the firm is operating in country B. However, this would not change any of the qualitative results since the welfare ranking would be the same.

  24. One can show that the second order conditions for a maximum, i.e. a negative definite Hessian, are satisfied provided that the third derivatives of the abatement cost functions \(\gamma (q)\) and \(\kappa (k)\) are sufficiently small. This holds true for a wide range of frequently applied cost functions, in particular for quadratic ones where the third derivatives are zero. In the following, I assume that this condition is fulfilled, so that we have a global maximum.

  25. Note that this is only the first best from a national welfare perspective. Since the environmental damage of the foreign country is not taken into account, the global first best may require higher carbon prices.

  26. In fact, the major difference is that the first term of both FOCs read \(W_{BB} - W_{AA} + \mu\) instead of \(W_{AB} - W_{AA} + \mu\).

  27. A similar result is found in a setting with asymmetric information by Pollrich and Schmidt (2014), where the regulator offers contracts consisting of emission limits and transfers to a single firm. When the regulator cannot commit to transfers in the second period, she may optimally tighten the emission limit in the first period to trigger investments in abatement capital, inducing the firm to produce permanently in country A.

  28. Given that banking and borrowing is not allowed, allocating free allowances of the second period already in the first one means that firms can sell their second period permits in the second period regardless of whether or not they are still operating in country A. Receiving free allowances for the first period only in the second one can be thought of as getting a rebate for carbon expenses in the first period conditional on still operating in country A in the second period.

  29. Note that even though firms anticipate this refunding, it is still individually rational for each firm to abate emissions until the marginal abatement costs equal the carbon prices.

  30. In contrast to this paper, Mæstad (2001) does not assume that the transfers must be self-financing, but analyzes a case where transfers are not available for the regulator.

  31. If the budget constraint of the regulator was assumed to hold in each period, then no firm would play a ‘take the money and run’-strategy. The reason is that the profit of AB firms would never exceed those of BB firms. Since AB firms invest less in abatement capital than AA firm, they face higher first period tax payments than AA firms. Hence, even if the regulator uses the entire tax proceeds to uniformly compensate AA and AB firms in the first period, AB firms’ would be always worse off under any climate policy package relative to a no-policy scenario. Since they incur the same relocation costs as BB firms, their profits would be strictly below those of BB firms.

  32. Note that it is also possible that the social planner raises the second period price above the marginal environmental damage in order to raise more tax revenue.

  33. Note that \(\frac{\partial T}{\partial p}\) slightly differs from Eq. (30) because an increase of p also impacts the tax revenues of AB firms. However, the basic trade-offs are equivalent to those reported above.

  34. To see this, note that \(\frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial g} = W_{AA} - W_{BB} - \lambda - \mu + \nu\). If the budget constraint is not binding, we have \(\nu =0\). Solving equation \(\frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial g}=0\) for \(\lambda\) and plugging in into Eqs. (31) and (32) leads to Eqs. (A.19) and (A.20), implying that we obtain the same results as in Proposition 2.

  35. The reason is that the welfare contribution of AB-firms \(W_{AB}(p, \theta )\) exceeds \(W_{BB}(\theta )\) as long as \(0<p<2\psi\). Since carbon prices \(p + P > 2\psi\) distort the investment decision of AA-firms, it is never optimal to choose \(p + P >2\psi\). Thus, it follows that p is always smaller than \(2 \psi\) and therefore \(W_{AB}(p, \theta )>W_{BB}(\theta )\).

  36. Constant carbon prices imply the abatement effort of firms to remain constant as well, causing the welfare level of strategy 3 to decline linearly in \({\bar{\epsilon }}\).

  37. Goulder and Mathai (2000) find that if a carbon tax impacts technological change through investment in R&D, then the government should set rather low carbon taxes in the near term. The intuition behind this rather surprising result is that the government prefers to postpone emission abatement due to the prospect of technological change.

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Correspondence to Daniel Nachtigall.

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Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

I thank Clemens Hetschko, Fabian Lange, Robert Schmidt, Ronnie Schöb, Mark Schopf, Roland Strausz and participants of the AURÖ workshop 2015 in Hamburg, the research seminar at Fudan University in Shanghai, the EAERE 2015 conference in Helsinki, the IIPF 2015 conference in Dublin and the FiWi workshop 2016 in Berlin for helpful comments and suggestions. I am grateful for the financial assistance of the Research Training Group 1659.

Appendix

Appendix

1.1 Equivalence Between an Emissions Trading System with Free Allowances and a Price and Transfer System

Let n and N be the number of emission allowances a firm receives free of charge, then the transfers in each period are given by \(g = np\) and \(G = NP\). Rearranging yields

$$\begin{aligned} n&= h(p,g) \equiv {\left\{ \begin{array}{ll} p/g &{}\quad {\text {if}} \quad g > 0 \\ 0 &{}\quad {\text {if}} \quad g = 0 \end{array}\right. } \end{aligned}$$
(A.1)
$$\begin{aligned} N&= H(P,G) \equiv {\left\{ \begin{array}{ll} P/G &{}\quad {\text {if}} \quad G > 0 \\ 0 &{}\quad {\text {if}} \quad G = 0 \end{array}\right. } \end{aligned}$$
(A.2)

For the demand of certificates, let us start with the scenario with AA and AB-firms. The number of actual emissions in the first and second period reads

$$\begin{aligned} d(p,g,P,G)&= ({\bar{\theta }} - \theta _{AA}^{AB}) \cdot ({\bar{\epsilon }} - k_{AA}^*(\cdot ) - q_{AA}^*(\cdot )) + (\theta _{AA}^{AB} - {\underline{\theta }}) \cdot ({\bar{\epsilon }} - k_{AB}^*(\cdot ) - q_{AB}^*(\cdot )) \end{aligned}$$
(A.3)
$$\begin{aligned} D(p,g,P,G)&= ({\bar{\theta }} - \theta _{AA}^{AB}) \cdot ({\bar{\epsilon }} - k_{AA}^*(\cdot ) - Q_{AA}^*(\cdot )). \end{aligned}$$
(A.4)

Let \({\bar{e}}\) and \({\bar{E}}\) be the total caps of emissions in the first and second period, then the market clearing condition of the allowance market requires that

$$\begin{aligned} {\bar{e}}&= d(p,g,P,G) \quad {\text {and}} \end{aligned}$$
(A.5)
$$\begin{aligned} {\bar{E}}&= D(p,g,P,G). \end{aligned}$$
(A.6)

Define \(m(p,g,P,G) = \big (h(p,g), d(p,g,P,G), H(P,G), D(p,g,P,G)\big )\), where m(pgPG) is a continuously differentiable function because each of its elements is continuously differentiable. According to the implicit function theorem, m(pgPG) has always an inverse function if its Jacobian matrix is invertible. It can be shown that the determinant of the Jacobian matrix is always positive, which is a sufficient condition for this matrix to be invertible. Hence, there always exists a function \(f(n, {\bar{e}}, N,{\bar{E}}) = m^{-1}(n, {\bar{e}}, N,{\bar{E}})\) and we can conclude that each vector (pgPG) can be uniquely determined by choosing the vector \((n, {\bar{e}}, N,{\bar{E}})\) accordingly. The same result also holds true in the case of AA and BB-firms.

1.2 Proof of Propositions

1.2.1 Proof of Proposition 2

The Kuhn–Tucker conditions for the Lagrangian from Eq. (22) read

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial p}&= \big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial p} + \big (\theta _{AA}^{AB} - {\underline{\theta }} \big ) \frac{\partial W_{AB}}{\partial p} + \big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{AB} \big ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\ }{\partial p} \nonumber \\&\quad +\,\lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p} - \mu \bigg (\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p} - \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p} \bigg ) \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.7)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial P}&= \big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial P} + \big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{AB} \big ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial P} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.8)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial g}&= \lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} - \mu \underbrace{\bigg (\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial g} - \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} \bigg )}_{=0} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.9)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda (\pi _{BB} - \pi _{AB} ) + \mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{AB}) = 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.10)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda , \mu \ge 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.11)

Since \(\frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} = 1 >0\), FOC (A.9) can only be satisfied for \(\lambda = 0\). Using \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial p} = \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p} - \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p}\) and \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial P} = - \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial P}\) immediately leads to Eqs. (23) and (24) which are the starting points for the proof of Proposition 2.

First, note that at \(p=P=\psi\), we have \(\frac{\partial W_{AB}}{\partial p}\big |_{p=P=\psi }=\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p}\big |_{p=P=\psi }=\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P}\big |_{p=P=\psi } =0\). Since \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB} }{\partial P} > 0\), \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB} }{\partial p} < 0\) and \((W_{AB}- W_{AA} - \mu )<0\), it follows that \(\frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}} }{\partial p}\big |_{p=P=\psi } = \big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} - \mu \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial p} > 0\) and \(\frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}} }{\partial P}\big |_{p=P=\psi } = \big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial P} < 0\). Hence, a marginal increase (decrease) of p (P) raises the welfare at \(p=P=\psi\).

Second, given that \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial p}<0\) and assuming for a moment that \(\big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big )<0\), we must have \(\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} = Q_{AA}^*{'} (\psi - P ) + k_{AA}^*{'} (2 \psi - p - P ) > 0\) to satisfy Eq. (24). For \(p \ge \psi\), this requires P to be smaller than \(\psi\). As \(\big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB} }{\partial p} > 0\), we must have \(p > \psi\) for \(P \le \psi\) to satisfy FOC (23). This leads to \(p> \psi > P\). Moreover, we can exclude the case \(P> \psi > p\) because \(P > \psi\) requires \(2\psi - p - P >0\) to satisfy Eq. (24), whereas \(p < \psi\) requires \(2\psi - p - P <0\) to satisfy FOC (23), leading to a contradiction. Thus, we must have \(p> \psi > P\) to satisfy both FOCs.

Third, to show that \(\big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) < 0\), note that for \(\mu >0\) we must have \(\pi _{AA}(p,g,P,{\bar{G}}) =\pi _{AB}(p,g,{\underline{\theta }})\). If \(\big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) > 0\), then we would have \(p< \psi < P\) for the same reasons as above. But then \(\pi _{AA}(p< \psi ,g,P>\psi ,{\bar{G}}) =\pi _{AB}(p<\psi ,g,{\underline{\theta }}\)) implies that \(\pi _{AA}(\psi ,g,\psi ,{\bar{G}}) > \pi _{AB}(\psi ,g,{\underline{\theta }})\), meaning that the first best was feasible. Hence, we must have \(\big ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) < 0\).

The Lagrangian for the second maximization problem of (21) is given by

$$\begin{aligned} {\mathcal {L}} = W_{AA}^{BB} - \lambda \big (\pi _{AB} - \pi _{BB} \big ) - \mu \big (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{BB} \big ) \end{aligned}$$
(A.12)

and the Kuhn-Tucker conditions read

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial p}&= \big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial p} + \big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} \big ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p} - \lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.13)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial P}&= \big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial P} + \big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} \big ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial P} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.14)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial g}&= \big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial g} - \lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial g} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.15)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda (\pi _{AB} - \pi _{BB}) + \mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{BB}) \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.16)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda , \mu \ge 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.17)

Since \(\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial g}=\frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} = 1\) and \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial g} = - \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial g} = -1\), it follows from Eq. (A.15) that

$$\begin{aligned} \lambda = W_{AA} - W_{BB} - \mu > 0. \end{aligned}$$
(A.18)

In order to satisfy Eq. (A.16), we must have \(\pi _{AB}=\pi _{BB}\), meaning that the regulator chooses g such that firms are indifferent between relocating later or immediately. Note that \(\pi _{AB}=\pi _{BB}\) implies \(\theta _{AA}^{BB} = \theta _{AA}^{AB}\). Plugging in Eq. (A.18) into Eq. (A.13) and using the facts that \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial p} = - \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p}\) and \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial p} = \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p}- \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p}\) immediately leads to

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial p}&= \big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial p} + \big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{AB} \big ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0. \end{aligned}$$
(A.19)

Using \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial P} = -\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial P}=\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial P}\) for Eq. (A.14) yields

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial P}&= \big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial P} + \big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{AB} \big ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0. \end{aligned}$$
(A.20)

Equations (A.19) and (A.20) are almost equivalent to the FOCs (23) and (24). Hence, for the same reasons as above, we must have \(p>\psi >P\).

1.2.2 Proof of Proposition 3

Since there are no AB-firms, the maximization problem reduces to

$$\begin{aligned} \max \left\{ \begin{array}{l l l} \max \limits _{p,P,G} W_{AA}^{AA}(p,g=0,P,G) \quad {\text {s.t.}} \quad &{}\pi _{AA}(p,g=0,P,G) &{}\ge \pi _{BB}({\underline{\theta }}) \\ &{} G\cdot ({\bar{\theta }} - {\underline{\theta }}) &{}\le T_{AA}(p,P)\cdot ({\bar{\theta }} - {\underline{\theta }}) \\ \max \limits _{p,P,G} W_{AA}^{BB}(p,g=0,P,G) \quad {\text {s.t.}} \quad &{} \pi _{AA}(p,g=0,P,G) &{}\le \pi _{BB}({\underline{\theta }}) \\ &{} G\cdot ({\bar{\theta }} - \theta _{AA}^{BB}) &{} \le T_{AA}(p,P)\cdot ({\bar{\theta }} - \theta _{AA}^{BB}) \\ \end{array} \right\} \end{aligned}$$
(A.21)

where the second line of each maximization problem represents the budget constraint with \(G\cdot ({\bar{\theta }} - {\underline{\theta }})\) and \(G\cdot ({\bar{\theta }} - \theta _{AA}^{AB})\) being the total transfer expenditures of the government.

The Lagrangian of the second maximization problem of (A.21) is given by

$$\begin{aligned} {\mathcal {L}} = W_{AA}^{BB} - \mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{BB}) - \nu (G - T_{AA}) \end{aligned}$$
(A.22)

where the term \(( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} )\) in the budget constraint has canceled out. The Kuhn-Tucker conditions read

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial p}&= ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial p} + ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p} + \nu \frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial p} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.23)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial P}&= ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial P} + ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial P} + \nu \frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial P} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.24)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial G}&= ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial G} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial G} - \nu \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.25)
$$\begin{aligned}&\mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{BB}) + \nu (G - T_{AA}) \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.26)
$$\begin{aligned}&\mu , \nu \ge 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.27)

Taking into account that \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial G} = -1\) and \(\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial G} = 1\), it follows from Eq. (A.25) that \(\nu = W_{AA} - W_{BB} -\mu\). Substituting \(\nu\) in Eqs. (A.23) as well as (A.24) and bearing in mind that \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial i}= - \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial i}\) for \(i=p\), P, G leads to

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}} }{\partial p}&= \underbrace{\big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big )\cdot \bigg (\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial p} - \frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial p}\bigg )}_{<0} +\underbrace{\big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} \big )}_{>0} \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.28)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}} }{\partial P}&= \underbrace{\big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) \cdot \bigg (\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial P} - \frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial P}\bigg )}_{<0} +\underbrace{\big ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} \big )}_{>0} \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.29)

where \(\mu\) is the Lagrangian multiplier for the constraint \(\pi _{AA}(\cdot ) \le \pi _{BB}({\underline{\theta }})\). Moreover, note that

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial p} - \frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial p} = p (q_{AA}^{*'} + k_{AA}^{*'}) + P (Q_{AA}^{*'} + k_{AA}^{*'})>0. \end{aligned}$$
(A.30)

For the first part of Proposition 3, note that if the regulator sets the highest possible transfer \(G=T_{AA}(p,P)\), then the profit of an AA firm reads \(\pi _{AA}^*(p,P,g=0, G=T_{AA}(p,P)) = 2 - \kappa (k_{AA}^*(p + P)) - \gamma (q_{AA}^*(p)) - \gamma (Q_{AA}^*(P))\). Thus, there is no relocation for first-best prices as long as \({\underline{\theta }} \ge \kappa (k_{AA}^*(2 \psi )) + \gamma (q_{AA}^*(\psi )) + \gamma (Q_{AA}^*(\psi ))\) and the regulator can implement the first-best.

For the second part, if \({\underline{\theta }} < \kappa (k_{AA}^*(2 \psi )) + \gamma (q_{AA}^*(\psi )) + \gamma (Q_{AA}^*(\psi ))\), the regulator optimally reduces the carbon prices. At \(p=P=\psi\), we have \(\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p}\big |_{p=P=\psi }=\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P}\big |_{p=P=\psi }=0\), meaning that \(\frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial p}\big |_{p=P=\psi } = \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial P}\big |_{p=P=\psi } = \big ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} + \mu \big ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial i} < 0\) for \(i = p\), P. Since \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial p} >0\) as well as \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial P} >0\) and \(W_{BB} - W_{AA} + \mu < 0\), we must have \(\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p}>0\) and \(\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P}>0\) to satisfy the FOCs (A.28) and (A.29). This requires \(p+P<2 \psi\). Since the FOCs (A.28) and (A.29) are symmetric, there is a unique welfare maximum with \(p=P<\psi\).

1.2.3 Proof of Proposition 4

The Lagrangian for the first optimization problem in (27) reads

$$\begin{aligned} {\mathcal {L}} = W_{AA}^{AB} - \lambda (\pi _{BB}-\pi _{AB}) - \mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{AB}) - \nu (g ({\bar{\theta }} - {\underline{\theta }}) - T) \end{aligned}$$
(A.31)

and the Kuhn-Tucker conditions are given by

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial p}&= ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial p} + (\theta _{AA}^{AB} - {\underline{\theta }}) \frac{\partial W_{AB}}{\partial p} + ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{AB} ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p} \nonumber \\&\quad +\,\lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p} - \mu \bigg (\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p}- \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p} \bigg ) + \nu \frac{\partial T}{\partial p} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.32)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial P}&= ( W_{AB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{AB}}{\partial P} + ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{AB} ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial P} + \nu \frac{\partial T}{\partial P} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.33)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial g}&= \lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} - \mu \bigg (\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial g}- \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} \bigg ) - \nu ({\bar{\theta }} - {\underline{\theta }}) \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.34)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda (\pi _{BB} - \pi _{AB}) + \mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{AB})+\nu (g ({\bar{\theta }} - {\underline{\theta }}) - T) \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.35)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda , \mu , \nu \ge 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.36)

Taking into account that \(\frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g}=1\) and that \(\frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial g}- \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} =0\), Eq. (A.34) can be reduced to \(\lambda = \nu ({\bar{\theta }} - {\underline{\theta }})\). Plugging this in into Eq. (A.32) and performing the same transformations as in the proof of Proposition 2 leads to Eq. (28) from the text. For the first line in Table 2 from Proposition 4 note that the sign of the last term of Eq. (28) is indeterminate. Hence, the third best p can be either above or below \(\psi\). For the last entry in the first line, the last term of Eq. (29) is certainly negative, implying the term \(\frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P}\) to be positive which holds only true for \(P < \psi\) for the same reasons as pointed out in the proof of Proposition 2. However, if \(\frac{\partial T(p,P)}{\partial P} > 0\), then P can be below or above \(\psi\).

The Lagrangian for the second optimization problem in (27) reads

$$\begin{aligned} {\mathcal {L}} = W_{AA}^{BB} - \lambda (\pi _{AB}-\pi _{BB}) - \mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{BB}) - \nu (g - T_{AA}) \end{aligned}$$
(A.37)

and the Kuhn-Tucker conditions are given by

$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial p}&= ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial p} + ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial p} - \lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial p} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial p} + \nu \frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial p} \,\,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\,\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.38)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial P}&= ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial P} + ( {\overline{\theta }}-\theta _{AA}^{BB} ) \frac{\partial W_{AA}}{\partial P} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AA}}{\partial P} + \nu \frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial P} \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.39)
$$\begin{aligned} \frac{\partial {\mathcal {L}}}{\partial g}&= ( W_{BB} - W_{AA} ) \frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial g} - \lambda \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} - \mu \frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} + \nu \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.40)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda (\pi _{BB} - \pi _{AB}) + \mu (\pi _{AA} - \pi _{BB}) + \nu (g - T_{AA}) \,{\mathop =\limits ^{!}}\, 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.41)
$$\begin{aligned}&\lambda , \mu , \nu \ge 0 \end{aligned}$$
(A.42)

Taking into account that \(\frac{\partial \theta _{AA}^{BB}}{\partial g} = -1\) and \(\frac{\partial \pi _{AB}}{\partial g} =1\), Eq. (A.40) reduces to \(\nu = W_{AA} - W_{BB} - \lambda - \mu\). Plugging this into Eqs. (A.38) and (A.39) leads to Eqs. (31) and (32) from the text. If \(\lambda >0\), then p can be above or below \(\psi\) because the sign of the last term in Eq. (31) is indeterminate which proofs the first entry in the second line of Table 2. If \(\frac{\partial T_{AA}}{\partial P} > 0\), then the last term of Eq. (32) is negative and P must be below \(\psi\). If the opposite holds true, then P can be above or below \(\psi\) which proofs the other entries of the second line. For the last line, if \(\lambda =0\), then the FOCs (31) and (32) are equivalent to (A.28) and (A.29) and we have \(p=P< \psi\) for the same reasons as outlined in the proof of Proposition 3.

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Nachtigall, D. Dynamic Climate Policy Under Firm Relocation: The Implications of Phasing Out Free Allowances. Environ Resource Econ 74, 473–503 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-019-00326-x

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