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The direct and indirect effect of climate change on citrus production in Tunisia: a macro and micro spatial analysis

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Abstract

In this study, we tried to show the direct and indirect effect of precipitation and temperature on the production of citrus in Tunisia of a governorate i and the neighboring governorates. To do this, we used a new original analysis of spatial econometrics to take into account in an efficient and finely manner the spatial effects, individual and temporal effects of the spatial autocorrelation. This analysis was done on the basis of global spatial autocorrelation test and the spatial autoregressive model (SAR) as well as the spatial Durbin model (SDM). It appears from our results that the available water in the groundwater table of the governorate i can be an effective solution for the farmer who resides there provided that the means are implemented so that he can benefit. Our robustness results based on the cointegration dynamic panel data, also shows the effect of temperature via the hydric resources of the governorate i and that the neighboring governorates represent a negative spillover effect.

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Notes

  1. High-High

  2. Low-Low

  3. See Appendix 1 Table 5.

  4. See Appendix 1 Table 5.

  5. See Appendix 1 Tables 6 and 7.

  6. Plant Phenology deals with the chronology of seasonal periodic phenomena of growth and development of plants. It is to observe what is called phenological phases or phenophases, such as foliage, flowering, fruit ripening and leaf drop.

  7. The biosphere is one of geochemical layers of the earth. It consists of all living beings.

  8. AVFA

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Acknowledgments

This paper is funded by the LAREQUAD & LEAD Laboratories. Furthermore, we are grateful to Nicolas Peridy (LEAD, France), Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa (LAREQUAD, Tunisia) and Wassim Jbai (Tunis Business School, TBS, Tunisia) for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. LAREQUAD & FSEGT, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia

    Oussama Zouabi & Mohamed Kadria

  2. LEAD, University of Toulon, Toulon, France

    Oussama Zouabi

Authors
  1. Oussama Zouabi
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  2. Mohamed Kadria
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Oussama Zouabi.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 4 Descriptive statistics of citrus production in micro-spatial scale
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Table 5 Panel unit root tests results for Model 3 (Citrus)
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Table 6 Pedroni (1999, 2004) panel cointegration results
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Table 7 Database
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Zouabi, O., Kadria, M. The direct and indirect effect of climate change on citrus production in Tunisia: a macro and micro spatial analysis. Climatic Change 139, 307–324 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1784-0

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