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Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

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Abstract

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography; Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University, Senckenbergstrasse 1, 35390, Giessen, Germany

    J. Luterbacher

  2. Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA

    S. J. Koenig

  3. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    J. Franke

  4. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands

    G. van der Schrier & A. van Engelen

  5. GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany

    E. Zorita

  6. Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    A. Moberg & L. Leijonhufvud

  7. Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany

    J. Jacobeit

  8. Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Switzerland

    P. M. Della-Marta

  9. Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    M. Küttel, E. Xoplaki, T. Rutishauser, M. Stössel & H. Wanner

  10. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    M. Küttel, E. Xoplaki, T. Rutishauser, H. Wanner & C. Pfister

  11. The Cyprus Institute, EEWRC, Nicosia, Cyprus

    E. Xoplaki

  12. Faculty of Applied Sciences, University of Sunderland, Sunderland, UK

    D. Wheeler

  13. Unitat d’Ecofisiologia CSIC-CREAF (Center for Ecological Applications and Forestry Applications), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain

    T. Rutishauser

  14. Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic

    R. Brázdil & P. Dobrovolný

  15. National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Padua, Italy

    D. Camuffo & C. Bertolin

  16. Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco

  17. School of Geography and Geosciences, The University of St Andrews, Fife, Scotland

    R. Wilson

  18. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Cracow, Poland

    D. Limanówka

  19. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

    Ø. Nordli

  20. Department of Economic History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    J. Söderberg

  21. Met Office Hadley Centre, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

    R. Allan

  22. Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

    M. Barriendos

  23. Institute of Physical Geography, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany

    Rüdiger Glaser & D. Riemann

  24. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Z. Hao

  25. Biomedical Research Foundation, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece

    C. S. Zerefos

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  1. J. Luterbacher
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  2. S. J. Koenig
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  4. G. van der Schrier
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  5. E. Zorita
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  6. A. Moberg
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  7. J. Jacobeit
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  8. P. M. Della-Marta
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  9. M. Küttel
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  10. E. Xoplaki
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  11. D. Wheeler
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  12. T. Rutishauser
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  13. M. Stössel
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  14. H. Wanner
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  15. R. Brázdil
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  16. P. Dobrovolný
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  17. D. Camuffo
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  18. C. Bertolin
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  19. A. van Engelen
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  20. F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco
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  21. R. Wilson
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Correspondence to J. Luterbacher.

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Luterbacher, J., Koenig, S.J., Franke, J. et al. Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January–April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models. Climatic Change 101, 201–234 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9782-0

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