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Predicting the distribution of Encephalartos latifrons, a critically endangered cycad in South Africa

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Abstract

This study evaluates how a modelling approach to determine areas of suitable habitat for the Critically Endangered Albany cycad Encephalartos latifrons can assist in systematic conservation planning for this and other rare and threatened cycads. A map distinguishing suitable from unsuitable habitat for E. latifrons was produced and important environmental predictors (climate, geology, topography and vegetation) influencing the suitable habitat were estimated. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling technique was chosen for this study as it has consistently performed well compared with alternative modelling methods and is also an appropriate model choice when the sample size is small and locality records are relatively few. Predicted habitat suitability showed that some locations chosen for translocation and restoration of E. latifrons specimens are not suitable. This revealed that modelling suitable habitat can guide relocation and regeneration of E. latifrons and perhaps other threatened cycads with restricted distributions and few locality records. The species distribution model constructed for E. latifrons is the first reported habitat model for a Critically Endangered cycad in South Africa. The results may be incorporated into conservation planning and structured decision-making about translocations and restoration programmes involving vulnerable cycads, which are among the most threatened organisms globally.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Roger Rowswell for assistance in the field, as well as the landowners who kindly shared their local knowledge. Thanks to Quintus Hahndiek, Ricky Hannan, Gerrie Ferreira and Thembinkosi Tyali (Eastern Cape Department of Economic Development and Environmental Affairs) for supplying information on historical permitting. We also thank Susanne Vetter (Rhodes University) and Tony Palmer (Agricultural Research Council) for offering advice and support throughout the research. We would like to thank three anonymous reviewers who helped improve our manuscript. Special thanks to Rose Prevec (Albany Museum) for her insightful comments on early drafts of the manuscript. Cynthia Kulongowski is thanked for editing a final version of the manuscript. Financial support for this study was provided by the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI).

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  1. Nigel Barker

    Present address: Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Pretoria, P/Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Botany, Rhodes University, PO Box 94, Lucas Avenue, Grahamstown, 6139, South Africa

    Carin Swart & Nigel Barker

  2. Kirstenbosch Research Centre, South African National Biodiversity Institute, P/Bag X7, Claremont, 7735, South Africa

    John Donaldson

  3. Plant Conservation Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, P/Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa

    John Donaldson

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  1. Carin Swart
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Correspondence to Carin Swart.

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Communicated by David Hawksworth.

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Swart, C., Donaldson, J. & Barker, N. Predicting the distribution of Encephalartos latifrons, a critically endangered cycad in South Africa. Biodivers Conserv 27, 1961–1980 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-018-1519-9

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