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Demography and Diffusion in Epidemics: Malaria and Black Death Spread

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Abstract

The classical models of epidemics dynamics by Ross and McKendrick have to be revisited in order to incorporate elements coming from the demography (fecundity, mortality and migration) both of host and vector populations and from the diffusion and mutation of infectious agents. The classical approach is indeed dealing with populations supposed to be constant during the epidemic wave, but the presently observed pandemics show duration of their spread during years imposing to take into account the host and vector population changes as well as the transient or permanent migration and diffusion of hosts (susceptible or infected), as well as vectors and infectious agents. Two examples are presented, one concerning the malaria in Mali and the other the plague at the middle-age.

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Acknowledgments

We are indebted to L. Forest for his invaluable contribution to models, simulations and for his unforgettable friendship.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. LERTIM, EA 3283, Faculty of Medicine, Aix-Marseille University, 27 Bd Jean Moulin, 13385, Marseille Cedex 5, France

    J. Gaudart

  2. TIMC-IMAG, AGIM3, UMR CNRS 5525, Faculty of Medicine of Grenoble, University J. Fourier, 38700, La Tronche, France

    M. Ghassani, J. Mintsa, M. Rachdi, J. Waku & J. Demongeot

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  1. J. Gaudart
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Correspondence to J. Demongeot.

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Gaudart, J., Ghassani, M., Mintsa, J. et al. Demography and Diffusion in Epidemics: Malaria and Black Death Spread. Acta Biotheor 58, 277–305 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10441-010-9103-z

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