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An Improved Method for Developing Injury Risk Curves Using the Brier Metric Score

  • WIAMan Biomechanics
  • Published:
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Abstract

Many injury metrics are routinely proposed from measured or derived quantities from biomechanical experiments using post mortem human subjects (PMHS). The existing literature did not provide guidance on deciding between parameters collected in an experiment that would be best to use for the development of human injury probability curves (HIPC). The objective of this study was to use the Brier Metric Score (BMS) to identify the most appropriate metric from an experiment that predicts injury outcomes. The Brier Metric Score assesses how well a metric predicts the outcome for a censored data point (a lower BMS is better). Survival analysis was then conducted with the selected metric and the best distribution was selected using Akaike information criterion (AIC). Confidence intervals (CIs) and the normalized confidence interval width (NCIS) were calculated for the injury probability curve. The testing and validation of the methods described were performed using biomechanics data in the open literature. The methods for the HIPC development procedure detailed herein have been rigorously tested and used in the generation of WIAMan HIPCs and Injury Assessment Reference Curves (IARCs) for the WIAMan ATD, but can also be used in other ATD or PMHS injury risk curve development.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this work was provided by the US Army WIAMan Engineering Office (W911QX-17-D-0006).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biomedical Engineering, Wake Forest School of Medicine, 575 N. Patterson Avenue, Winston-Salem, NC, 27101, USA

    Zachary S. Hostetler & F. Scott Gayzik

  2. Biostatistics and Data Science, Wake Forest School of Medicine, 525 Vine St., Winston-Salem, NC, 27101, USA

    Fang-Chi Hsu

  3. Department of Neurosurgery, Biomedical Engineering, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA

    Narayan Yoganandan & Frank A. Pintar

  4. Division of Biostatistics, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA

    Anjishnu Banerjee

  5. Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, USA

    Liming Voo

Authors
  1. Zachary S. Hostetler
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  2. Fang-Chi Hsu
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  3. Narayan Yoganandan
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  4. Frank A. Pintar
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  5. Anjishnu Banerjee
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  6. Liming Voo
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  7. F. Scott Gayzik
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Correspondence to F. Scott Gayzik.

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Associate Editor Stefan M. Duma oversaw the review of this article.

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Hostetler, Z.S., Hsu, FC., Yoganandan, N. et al. An Improved Method for Developing Injury Risk Curves Using the Brier Metric Score. Ann Biomed Eng 49, 3091–3098 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10439-020-02686-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10439-020-02686-8

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