Abstract
Ecosystem services (ES) management has to cope with a high degree of uncertainty related to changes in socio-economic and climatic conditions as well as in societal values. Information regarding the quantity and location of these uncertainties can facilitate identifying which areas require management attention and policy support. In this context, science for mapping ES is evolving rapidly, but there remains a lack of quantitative methods to integrate and visualize uncertainties related to regional and global changes that affect both ES supply and demand. Using a mountain case study in Switzerland, this paper quantifies and maps the uncertainty of future ES provision related to changes in regional and global socio-economic and climatic drivers as well as in ES preferences. We model and map patterns of (dis)agreements regarding ES in a multitude of scenarios and evaluate the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in these patterns. The results illuminate which drivers cause the highest levels of uncertainty in future ES provision and highlight areas where changes in ES are similar across scenarios or where changes are dependent on regional or global contexts. In this case study, changes in ES occur more consistently in remote areas, while in the main valley such changes are highly uncertain and particularly sensitive to national socio-economic drivers and climate change. The uncertainty maps can serve as a basis for discussing regional development plans and national policy strategies. The suggested approach could serve as a straightforward means to quantify and communicate spatial uncertainties in future ES studies.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bagstad KJ, Johnson GW, Voigt B, Villa F (2013) Spatial dynamics of ecosystem service flows: a comprehensive approach to quantifying actual services. Ecosyst Serv 4:117–125. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.07.012
Bardsley DK, Bardsley AM (2014) Organising for socio-ecological resilience: the roles of the mountain farmer cooperative genossenschaft gran alpin in graubünden, Switzerland. Ecol Econ 98:11–21. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.12.004
Bateman IJ, Harwood AR, Mace GM, Watson RT, Abson DJ, Andrews B, Binner A, Crowe A, Day BH, Dugdale S, Fezzi C, Foden J, Hadley D, Haines-Young R, Hulme M, Kontoleon A, Lovett AA, Munday P, Pascual U, Paterson J, Perino G, Sen A, Siriwardena G, van Soest D, Termansen M (2013) Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the united kingdom. Science 341:45–50. doi:10.1126/science.1234379
Bender O, Fischer A, Borsdorf A, Stötter J (2011) Mountains under climate and global change conditions-research results in the alps. INTECH Open Access Publisher, Rijeka
Beniston M (2003) Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Clim Change 59:5–31. doi:10.1023/a:1024458411589
Boithias L, Terrado M, Corominas L, Ziv G, Kumar V, Marqués M, Schuhmacher M, Acuña V (2016) Analysis of the uncertainty in the monetary valuation of ecosystem services—a case study at the river basin scale. Sci Total Environ 543:683–690. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.066
Brändle J, Peter S, Langendijk G, Brunner SH, Huber R (2015) Sensitivity analysis of a land-use change model with and without agents to assess land abandonment and long-term re-forestation in a swiss mountain region. Land 4:475–512
Briner S, Elkin C, Huber R (2012) Assessing the impacts of economic and climate changes on land-use in mountain regions: a spatial dynamic modeling approach. Agric Ecosyst Environ 149:14. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2011.12.011
Briner S, Huber R, Bebi P, Elkin C, Schmatz DR, Grêt-Regamey A (2013) Trade-offs between ecosystem services in a mountain region. Ecol Soc. doi:10.5751/ES-05576-180335
Brunner SH, Huber R, Grêt-Regamey A (2016) A backcasting approach for matching regional ecosystem services supply and demand. Environ Model Softw 75:439–458. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.018
Burkhard B, Kroll F, Nedkov S, Müller F (2012) Mapping ecosystem service supply, demand and budgets. Ecol Ind 21:17–29. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.06.019
Castro AJ, Verburg PH, Martín-López B, Garcia-Llorente M, Cabello J, Vaughn CC, López E (2014) Ecosystem service trade-offs from supply to social demand: a landscape-scale spatial analysis. Landsc Urb Plann 132:102–110. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.08.009
Cavender-Bares J, Polasky S, King E, Balvanera P (2015) A sustainability framework for assessing trade-offs in ecosystem services. Ecol Soc. doi:10.5751/ES-06917-200117
Crossman ND, Burkhard B, Nedkov S, Willemen L, Petz K, Palomo I, Drakou EG, Martín-Lopez B, McPhearson T, Boyanova K, Alkemade R, Egoh B, Dunbar MB, Maes J (2013) A blueprint for mapping and modelling ecosystem services. Ecosyst Serv 4:4–14. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.02.001
Dennedy-Frank PJ, Muenich RL, Chaubey I, Ziv G (2016) Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions. J Environ Manage 177:331–340. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.03.012
Geijzendorffer IR, Martín-López B, Roche PK (2015) Improving the identification of mismatches in ecosystem services assessments. Ecol Ind 52:320–331. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.12.016
Grêt-Regamey A, Brunner SH, Kienast F (2012) Mountain ecosystem services: who cares? Mt Res Dev 32:S23–S34. doi:10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-10-00115.S1
Grêt-Regamey A, Brunner SH, Altwegg J, Bebi P (2013a) Facing uncertainty in ecosystem services-based resource management. J Environ Manage 127(Supplement):S145–S154. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.07.028
Grêt-Regamey A, Brunner SH, Altwegg J, Christen M, Bebi P (2013b) Integrating expert knowledge into mapping ecosystem services trade-offs for sustainable forest management. Ecol Soc. doi:10.5751/ES-05800-180334
Grêt-Regamey A, Weibel B, Kienast F, Rabe S-E, Zulian G (2015) A tiered approach for mapping ecosystem services. Ecosyst Serv 13:16–27. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.10.008
Gurung AB, Von Dach SW, Price MF, Aspinall R, Balsiger J, Baron JS, Sharma E, Greenwood G, Kohler T (2012) Global change and the world’s mountains-research needs and emerging themes for sustainable development: a synthesis from the perth II conference. Mt Res Dev 32:S47–S54
Haida C, Rüdisser J, Tappeiner U (2015) Ecosystem services in mountain regions: experts’ perceptions and research intensity. Reg Environ Change 16(7):1–16. doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0759-4
Haines-Young R, Potschin M (2010) The links between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being. In: Raffaelli DG, Frid CLJ (eds) Ecosystem ecology: A new synthesis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 110–139
Hauck J, Winkler KJ, Priess JA (2015) Reviewing drivers of ecosystem change as input for environmental and ecosystem services modelling. Sustain Water Qual Ecol. doi:10.1016/j.swaqe.2015.01.003
Hou Y, Burkhard B, Müller F (2013) Uncertainties in landscape analysis and ecosystem service assessment. J Environ Manage 127(Supplement):S117–S131. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.12.002
Houet T, Vacquié L, Sheeren D (2014) Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France): insights form model parameterization and experiments. J Mt Sci 12:1–18. doi:10.1007/s11629-014-3404-7
Huber R, Rigling A, Bebi P, Brand FS, Briner S, Buttler A, Elkin C, Gillet F, Grêt-Regamey A, Hirschi C, Lischke H, Scholz RW, Seidl R, Spiegelberger T, Walz A, Zimmermann W, Bugmann H (2013) Sustainable land use in mountain regions under global change: synthesis across scales and disciplines. Ecol Soc. doi:10.5751/ES-05499-180336
Johnson KA, Polasky S, Nelson E, Pennington D (2012) Uncertainty in ecosystem services valuation and implications for assessing land use tradeoffs: an agricultural case study in the Minnesota River Basin. Ecol Econ 79:71–79. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.04.020
Kareiva P, Tallis H, Ricketts TH, Daily GC, Polasky S (2011) Natural capita theory and practice of mapping ecosystem services. OUP, Oxford
Kirchner M, Schmidt J, Kindermann G, Kulmer V, Mitter H, Prettenthaler F, Rüdisser J, Schauppenlehner T, Schönhart M, Strauss F, Tappeiner U, Tasser E, Schmid E (2015) Ecosystem services and economic development in Austrian agricultural landscapes—the impact of policy and climate change scenarios on trade-offs and synergies. Ecol Econ 109:161–174. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.11.005
Landuyt D, Van der Biest K, Broekx S, Staes J, Meire P, Goethals PLM (2015) A GIS plug-in for bayesian belief networks: towards a transparent software framework to assess and visualise uncertainties in ecosystem service mapping. Environ Model Softw 71:30–38. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.05.002
de Groot R, Fisher B, Christie M, Aronson J, Braat L, Gowdy J, Haines-Young R, Maltby E, Neuville A (2010) Integrating the ecological and economic dimensions in biodiversity and ecosystem service valuation. In: Pushpam K (ed) The economics of ecosystems and biodiversity ecological and economic foundations (TEEB). Earthscan, London, Washington
Maes J, Egoh B, Willemen L, Liquete C, Vihervaara P, Schägner JP, Grizzetti B, Drakou EG, Notte AL, Zulian G, Bouraoui F, Luisa Paracchini M, Braat L, Bidoglio G (2012) Mapping ecosystem services for policy support and decision making in the European Union. Ecosyst Serv 1:31–39. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.06.004
Magliocca NR, Rudel TK, Verburg PH, McConnell WJ, Mertz O, Gerstner K, Heinimann A, Ellis EC (2015) Synthesis in land change science: methodological patterns, challenges, and guidelines. Reg Environ Change 15:211–226. doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0626-8
McFadden D (1973) Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In: Zaremka P (ed) Frontiers in econometrics. Academic Press, New York
Metzger M, Schröter D (2006) Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe. Reg Environ Change 6:201–216. doi:10.1007/s10113-006-0020-2
Metzger MJ, Rounsevell MDA, Acosta-Michlik L, Leemans R, Schröter D (2006) The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change agriculture. Ecosyst Environ 114:69–85. doi:10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.025
Pagella TF, Sinclair FL (2014) Development and use of a typology of mapping tools to assess their fitness for supporting management of ecosystem service provision. Landsc Ecol 29:383–399. doi:10.1007/s10980-013-9983-9
Palacios-Agundez I, Onaindia M, Potschin M, Tratalos JA, Madariaga I, Haines-Young R (2015) Relevance for decision making of spatially explicit, participatory scenarios for ecosystem services in an area of a high current demand. Environ Sci Policy 54:199–209. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.07.002
Polasky S, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Keeler B (2011) Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol Evol 26:398–404. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.007
Pontius RG, Millones M (2011) Death to kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. Int J Remote Sens 32:4407–4429. doi:10.1080/01431161.2011.552923
Prestele R, Alexander P, Rounsevell MDA, Arneth A, Calvin K, Doelman J, Eitelberg DA, Engström K, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Schüngel J, Stehfest E, Tabeau A, Van Meijl H, Van Vliet J, Verburg PH (2016) Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. Glob Change Biol 22:3967–3983. doi:10.1111/gcb.13337
Refsgaard JC, van der Sluijs JP, Højberg AL, Vanrolleghem PA (2007) Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process––a framework and guidance. Environ Model Softw 22:1543–1556
Sample JE, Baber I, Badger R (2016) A spatially distributed risk screening tool to assess climate and land use change impacts on water-related ecosystem services. Environ Model Softw 83:12–26. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.011
Schägner JP, Brander L, Maes J, Hartje V (2013) Mapping ecosystem services’ values: current practice and future prospects. Ecosyst Serv 4:33–46. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.02.003
Schulp CJE, Burkhard B, Maes J, Van Vliet J, Verburg PH (2014) Uncertainties in ecosystem service maps: a comparison on the European scale. PLoS ONE 9:e109643. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0109643
Schumacher S, Bugmann H (2006) The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Glob Change Biol 12:1435–1450. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01188.x
Seppelt R, Dormann CF, Eppink FV, Lautenbach S, Schmidt S (2011) A quantitative review of ecosystem service studies: approaches, shortcomings and the road ahead. J Appl Ecol 48:630–636. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01952.x
SFSO (2009) Arealstatistik der Schweiz. Bern, Switzerland
Stürck J, Levers C, van der Zanden EH, Schulp CJE, Verkerk PJ, Kuemmerle T, Helming J, Lotze-Campen H, Tabeau A, Popp A, Schrammeijer E, Verburg P (2015) Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe. Reg Environ Change. doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0876-0
Uusitalo L, Lehikoinen A, Helle I, Myrberg K (2015) An overview of methods to evaluate uncertainty of deterministic models in decision support. Environ Model Softw 63:24–31. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.017
Valkering P, van der Brugge R, Offermans A, Rijkens-Klomp N (2011) Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management. Reg Environ Change 11:229–241. doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0146-0
van Vliet J, de Groot HLF, Rietveld P, Verburg PH (2015) Manifestations and underlying drivers of agricultural land use change in Europe. Landsc Urban Plan 133:24–36. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.09.001
van Vliet J, Bregt AK, Brown DG, van Delden H, Heckbert S, Verburg PH (2016) A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling. Environ Model Softw 82:174–182. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.017
Verburg PH, Erb K-H, Mertz O, Espindola G (2013) Land System Science: between global challenges and local realities. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 5:433–437. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.08.001
Verburg PH, Dearing JA, Dyke JG, Svd Leeuw, Seitzinger S, Steffen W, Syvitski J (2015) Methods and approaches to modelling the Anthropocene. Glob Environ Change 39:328–340. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08
Vorstius Anne C, Spray CJ (2015) A comparison of ecosystem services mapping tools for their potential to support planning and decision-making on a local scale. Ecosyst Serv 15:75–83. doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.07.007
Wolff S, Schulp CJE, Verburg PH (2015) Mapping ecosystem services demand: a review of current research and future perspectives. Ecol Ind 55:159–171. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.03.016
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Competence Centre Environment and Sustainability of the ETH Domain, Switzerland as part of the transdisciplinary research project MOUNTLAND by the European Union Seventh Framework Program as part of the project OPERAs and by the Swiss National Research Program NRP 68 as part of the project OPSOL. We thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Brunner, S.H., Huber, R. & Grêt-Regamey, A. Mapping uncertainties in the future provision of ecosystem services in a mountain region in Switzerland. Reg Environ Change 17, 2309–2321 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1118-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1118-4