Abstract
Land capability classification systems define and communicate biophysical limitations on land use, including climate, soils and topography. They can therefore provide an accessible format for both scientists and decision-makers to share knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation. Underlying such classifications are complex interactions that require dynamic spatial analysis, particularly between soil and climate. These relationships are investigated using a case study on drought risk for agriculture in Scotland, which is currently considered less significant than wetness-related issues. The impact of drought risk is assessed using an established empirical system for land capability linking indicator crops with water availability. This procedure is facilitated by spatial interpolation of climate and soil profile data to provide soil moisture deficits and plant available water on a regular 1-km grid. To evaluate potential impacts of future climate change, land capability classes are estimated using both large-scale ensemble (multi-simulation) data from the HadRM3 regional climate model and local-scale weather generator data (UKCP09) derived from multiple climate models. Results for the case study suggest that drought risk is likely to have a much more significant influence on land use in the future. This could potentially act to restrict the range of crops grown and hence reduce land capability in some areas unless strategic-level adaptation measures are developed that also integrate land use systems and water resources with the wider environment.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allen RG, Smith M, Perrier LS, Pereira A (1994) An update for the calculation of reference evapotranspiration. ICID Bull 43:35–92
Beddington J (2010) Food security: contributions from science to a new and greener revolution. Philos Trans R Soc B 365:61–71
Bell V, Gedney N, Smith R, Moore B (2006) Estimating potential evaporation from vegetated surfaces using the Met Office Surface-Exchange Scheme (MOSES). Joint Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Research, Wallingford
Bibby JS, Douglas HA, Thomasson AJ, Robertson JS (1982) Land capability classification for agriculture. Macaulay Institute for Soil Research, Aberdeen
Brown I, Towers W, Rivington M, Black HIJ (2008) Influence of climate change on agricultural land-use potential: adapting and updating the land capability system for Scotland. Clim Res 37:43–57
Carr ER, Kettle NP (2009) Commentary: the challenge of quantifying susceptibility to drought-related crisis. Reg Environ Chang 9:131–136
De Groot JCJ, Rossing WAH, Jellema A, Stobbelaar DJ, Renting H, Van Ittersum MK (2007) Exploring multi-scale trade-offs between nature conservation, agricultural profits and landscape quality—a methodology to support discussions on land-use perspectives. Agric Ecosyst Environ 120:59–69
Dessai S, Hulme M (2004) Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Clim Policy 4:107–128
Dunn SM, Chalmers N, Stalham M, Lilly A, Crabtree B, Johnston L (2003) Modelling the influence of irrigation abstractions on Scotland’s water resources. Water Sci Technol 48:127–134
Durrant MJ, Love BJG, Messem AB, Draycott AP (1973) Growth of crops in relation to soil moisture extraction. Ann Appl Biol 74:387–394
EEA (2007) Climate change and water adaptation issues. European Environment Agency Technical Report 2/2007
Ewert F, Rodriguez D, Jamieson P et al (2002) Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions. Agric Ecosyst Environ 93:249–266
FAO (2007) Land evaluation: towards a revised framework. Land & Water Discussion Paper 6. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
FF MA (1988) Agricultural land classification of England and Wales: revised guidelines and criteria for grading the quality of agricultural land. MAFF, London
Finnan JM, Burke JI, Jones MB (2002) The effect of elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide and ozone on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yield. Agric Ecosyst Environ 88:11–22
Fox IA, Walker S (2002) Abstraction and abstraction control in Scotland. Sci Total Environ 294:201–211
Freer-Smith PH, Broadmeadow MSJ, Lynch JM (2007) Forestry and climate change. CAB International, Wallingford
Gimona A, Birnie RV (2002) Spatio-temporal modelling of broad scale heterogeneity in soil moisture content: a basis for an ecologically meaningful classification of soil landscapes. Landsc Ecol 17:1–15
Gregory PJ, Simmonds LP (1992) Water relations and growth of potatoes. In: Harris P (ed) The potato crop: the scientific basis for improvement, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall, London, pp 214–246
Hall J (2007) Probabilistic climate scenarios may misrepresent uncertainty and lead to bad adaptation decisions. Hydrol Process 21:1127–1129
Hall DGM, Reeve MJ, Thomasson AJ, Wright VF (1977) Water retention, porosity and density of field soils. Soil Survey Technical Monograph No. 9, Rothamsted, UK
Haverkamp R, Parlange JY (1986) Predicting the water-retention curve from particle-size distribution: 1. Sandy soils without organic matter. Soil Sci 142:325–379
Hay RKM, Russell G, Edwards TW (2000) Crop production in the east of Scotland. Scottish Agricultural Science Agency, Edinburgh
Hobbs RJ, Arico S, Aronson J et al (2006) Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 15:1–7
Holden NM, Breteton AJ, Fealey F, Sweeney J (2003) Possible change in Irish climate and its impact on barley and potato yields. Agric For Meteorol 116:181–196
Holman IP, Nicholls RJ, Berry PM, Harrison PA, Audsley E, Shackley S et al (2005) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: II Results. Clim Chang 71:9–41
Hossell JE, Temple ML, Finlay I, Gay A, Oakley J, Symmonds W et al (2002) Identifying and costing agricultural responses under climate change scenarios (ICARUS). Final Report. ADAS, Wolverhampton
Isaaks EH, Srivastava RM (1989) An introduction to applied geostatistics. Oxford University Press, London
Jones RJA, Zdruli P, Montanarella L (2000) The estimation of drought risk in Europe from soils and climate data. In: Vogt JF, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe. Kluwer, Netherlands, pp 133–146
Jones PD, Kilsby CG, Harpham C, Glenis V, Burton A (2009) UK climate projections science report: projections of future daily climate for the UK from the weather generator. University of Newcastle, UK
Klingebiel AA, Montgomery PH (1961) Land capability classification. Agricultural Handbook 210, Department of Agriculture, Wasington
Knox JW, Weatherhead K, Ioris AR (2007) Assessing water requirements for irrigated agriculture in Scotland. Water Int 32:133–144
MacDonald A, Matthews KB, Paterson E, Aspinall RJ (1994) The impact of climate change on the soil moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils. Environ Pollut 83:245–250
MacRae SG, Burnham CP (1981) Land evaluation. Clarendon Press, Oxford
Marsh TJ, Anderson JL (2002) Assessing the water resources of Scotland—perspectives, progress and problems. Sci Total Environ 294:13–27
Matthews KB, Rivington M, Buchan K, Miller D, Bellocchi G (2008) Characterising the agro-meteorological implications of climate change scenarios for land management stakeholders. Clim Res 37:59–75
Murphy JM, Booth BBB, Collins M, Harris GR, Sexton DMH, Webb MJ (2007) A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:1993–2028
Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Jenkins GJ et al (2009) UK climate projections science report: climate change projections. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
New M, Lopez A, Dessai S, Wilby R (2007) Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:2117–2131
OECD (2001) Multifunctionality: towards an analytical framework. OECD, Paris
Olesen JE, Bindi M (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur J Agron 16:239–262
Penman HL (1948) Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Phil Trans Roy Soc A 193:120–145
Perry M, Hollis D (2005) The generation of monthly gridded datasets for a range of climatic variables over the UK. Int J Climatol 25:1041–1054
Popper SW, Lempert RJ, Bankes SC (2005) Shaping the future. Sci Am 292:66–71
Rawls WJ, Pachepsky YA, Ritchie JC, Sobecki TM, Bloodworth H (2003) Effect of soil organic carbon on soil water retention. Geoderma 116:61–76
Rougier J (2007) Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations. Clim Chang 81:247–264
Salter PJ, Williams JB (1965) The influence of texture on the moisture characteristics of soils. II. Available-water capacity and moisture release characteristics. J Soil Sci 16:310–317
Smit B, Skinner MW (2002) Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 7:85–114
Stainforth DA, Downing TE, Washington R, Lopez A, New M (2007) Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions. Phil Trans R Soc A 365:2163–2177
Stalham MA, Allen EJ (2001) Effect of variety, irrigation regime and planting date on depth, rate, duration and density of root growth in the potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop. J Agric Sci 137:251–270
Stalham MA, Allen EJ (2004) Water uptake in the potato (Solanum tuberosum) crop. J Agric Sci 142:373–393
Stalham MA, Allen EJ, Rosenfeld AB, Herry FX (2007) Effects of soil compaction in potato (Solanum tuberosum) crops. J Agric Sci 145:295–312
Stephenson NL (1998) Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales. J Biogeogr 25:855–870
Thomasson AJ (1979) Assessment of average soil droughtiness. In: Soil survey applications: soil survey technical monograph no. 13. Soil Survey, Harpenden, pp 43–50
Thomasson AJ (1995) Assessment of soil water reserves available for plants (SWAP): a review. In: King D, Jones RJA, Thomasson AJ (eds) European land information systems for agro-environmental monitoring. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, pp 115–130
Thomasson AJ, Jones RJA (1989) Land evaluation at regional scale. In: Bouma J, Bregt AK (eds) Land qualities in space and time. Pudoc, Wageningen, pp 231–240
Thomasson AJ, Jones RJA (1991) An empirical approach to crop modelling and the assessment of land productivity. Agric Syst 34:351–367
van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
Wall E, Smit B (2005) Climate change adaptation in light of sustainable agriculture. J Sustain Agric 27:113–123
Wiebe K (2003) Land quality, agricultural productivity and food security. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
Wilby RL, Troni J, Biot Y, Tedd L, Hewitson BC, Smith DM et al (2009) A review of climate risk information for adaptation and development planning. Int J Climatol 29:1193–1215
Wösten JHM, Pachepsky YA, Rawls WJ (2001) Pedotransfer functions: bridging the gap between available basic soil data and missing soil hydraulic characteristics. J Hydrol 251:123–150
Wu D-X, Wang G-X, Bai Y-F, Liao J-X (2004) Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on growth, water use, yield and grain quality of wheat under two soil water levels. Agric Ecosyst Environ 104:493–507
Zdruli P, Jones RJA, Montanarella L (2001) Use of soil and climate data to assess the risk of agricultural drought for policy support in Europe. Agronomic 21:45–56
Acknowledgments
Research was funded by the Scottish Government under the ‘Environment: Land Use & Rural Stewardship’ Programme. Data from the UK Met Office observed climatology and UKCP09 future projections were made available under licence from Defra via the UK Climate Impacts Programme. Data from HadRM3 were provided by the British Atmospheric Data Centre through the Climate LINK project. Profile data from the Scottish Soils Database were supplied by the Macaulay Land Use Research Institute.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Brown, I., Poggio, L., Gimona, A. et al. Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland. Reg Environ Change 11, 503–518 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0163-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0163-z