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Applying teleconnection information to interpret the attributions of urban extreme precipitation

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Abstract

Understanding the attribution of urban extreme precipitation is vital for disaster warning and emergency management. However, present attribution analysis mostly applies factors with interaction within drive forces and little consideration on larger-scale teleconnection. In this study, the annual 1-day (AM1X) and 3-day mean (AM3X) maximum precipitation in Zhengzhou city were focused. First, the driving forces for extreme precipitation are identified by correlation trails and Granger causality test from 130 teleconnection factors. Then, the reconstructed series by regression models and observed series are contrasted to distinguish the attributions considering four return periods. Final, quantitative attribution and the variation with frequencies are obtained. The results show that (1) Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index (WPSHAI) and Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) are the dominant teleconnection factors. (2) The point estimation under climate control corresponding to 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% is 110.95, 141.40, 166.45, and 189.13 mm for AM1X and 37.10, 46.66, 53.51, and 59.17 mm for AM3X, and the interval estimation is 8.28 ~ 44.92 mm and 2.97 ~ 12.94 mm correspondingly. (3) Extreme precipitation corresponding to 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01% is governed by climatic control, 70.78% ~ 88.02% for AM1X and 50.72% ~ 67.73% for AM3X. The contribution of human activities increases with increasing return period. It is hoped that this study could provide a new theoretical framework to quantify attribution of urban extreme precipitation.

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Data availability

The raw data can be obtained through a public web site, and the analyzed data during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

The processed code used in this study can be accessed by contacting the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped improve the quality of the paper.

Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52209037); the China postdoctoral science foundation (No. 2022M722880).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China

    Yuxiang Zhao, Jie Tao, He Li & Qiting Zuo

  2. Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection & Regional Coordinated Development, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China

    Yuxiang Zhao, Jie Tao, He Li & Qiting Zuo

  3. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

    He Li & Pan Liu

  4. State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, 710048, China

    Bo Ming

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  1. Yuxiang Zhao
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  2. Jie Tao
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  3. He Li
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  4. Qiting Zuo
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  5. Pan Liu
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Contributions

YZ: conceptualization, methodology, software, writing—original draft; JT: conceptualization, supervision, writing—review and editing; HL: resources. QZ: investigation; PL: validation; BM: formal analysis.

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Correspondence to He Li.

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Zhao, Y., Tao, J., Li, H. et al. Applying teleconnection information to interpret the attributions of urban extreme precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 1857–1870 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04735-3

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