Abstract
It is widely known that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has an influence on precipitation in Europe. There are other modes of variability such as the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern (EA/WR), the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND), and the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA), which characterize the climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, the influence of the EA/WR pattern on precipitation over Europe is examined, with a focus on Serbia. In addition, we explore the combined effects of positive and negative phases of the NAO and EA pattern with the EA/WR pattern, on precipitation over Europe and Serbia. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and 15 stations from the national observational network in Serbia. Precipitation anomalies have been explored in relation to positive and negative phases of the EA/WR pattern using the monthly GPCC dataset. For the negative (positive) EA/WR phase, positive (negative) precipitation anomalies prevail over the Balkan Peninsula and central Mediterranean in January, February, May, and November, while a negative (positive) one dominates in March, April, September, and during the summer months. There is a strong positive (negative) signal over Portugal in October and over Greece and the Ionian Sea in December, for the positive (negative) EA/WR phase. The precipitation anomalies associated with the negative phase of the EA/WR pattern reflect above (up to 6 mm) average precipitation over Serbia. The positive phase of the EA/WR pattern caused precipitation anomalies below (up to − 8 mm) average precipitation over Serbia. We find that the NAO and EA patterns enhance the influence of the EA/WR pattern on precipitation changes over Serbia. High positive values of precipitation anomalies existed over Serbia for the negative phases of the EA/WR pattern and NAO (up to 12 mm), and EA pattern (up to 10 mm). Negative precipitation anomalies (up to − 12 mm) over Serbia are caused by the positive phase of the EA/WR pattern in combination with the positive phases of the NAO and EA pattern.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Code availability
No.
References
Bajat B, Blagojević D, Kilibarda M, Luković J, Tošić I (2015) Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961–2010. Theor Appl Climatol 121:289–301
Barnston AG, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon Weather Rev 115:1083–1127
Bartholy J, Pongrácz R, Gelybó GY (2009) Climate signals of the North Atlantic Oscillation detected in the Carpathian basin. Appl Ecol Environ Res 7:229–240
Black E (2012) The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European circulation regimes on the daily to interannual variability of winter precipitation in Israel. Int J Climatol 32:1654–1664
Bojariu R, Giorgi F (2005) The North Atlantic Oscillation signal in a regional climate simulation for the European region. Tellus A 57:641–653
Busuioc A, Dobrinescu A, Birsan MV, Dumitrescu A, Orzan A (2015) Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes in Romania and associated large-scale mechanisms. Int J Climatol 35:1278–1300
Casanueva A, Rodríguez-Puebla C, Frías MD, González-Reviriego N (2014) Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:709–725
Comas-Bru L, McDermott F (2014) Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the European twentieth century NAO-winter climate relationship. QJ Roy Meteor Soc 140:354–363
Efthymiadis D, Goodess CM, Jones PD (2011) Trends in Mediterranean gridded temperature extremes and large-scale circulation influences. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:2199–2214
Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, New M (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006. J Geophys Res (atmospheres) 113:D20119. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD10201
Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679
Josey SA, Somot S, Tsimplis M (2011) Impacts of atmospheric modes of variability on Mediterranean Sea surface heat exchange. J Geophys Res 116:C02032. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006685
Klein Tank AMG, Wijngaard JB, Können GP, Böhm R, Demarée G, Gocheva A, Mileta M, Pashiardis S, Hejkrlik L, Kern-Hansen C, Heino R, Bessemoulin P, Müller-Westermeier G, Tzanakou M, Szalai S, Pálsdóttir T, Fitzgerald D, Rubin S, Capaldo M, Maugeri M, Leitass A, Bukantis A, Aberfeld R, Van Engelen AFV, Forland E, Mietus M, Coelho F, Mares C, Razuvaev V, Nieplova E, Cegnar T, Antonio López J, Dahlström B, Moberg A, Kirchhofer W, Ceylan A, Pachaliuk O, Alexander LV, Petrovic P (2002) Daily dataset of 20th-centurysurface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. Int J Climatol 22:1441–1453
Knežević S, Tošić I, Unkašević M, Pejanović G (2014) The influence of the East Atlantic Oscillation to climate indices based on the daily minimum temperatures in Serbia. Theor Appl Climatol 116:435–446
Krichak SO, Kishcha P, Alpert P (2002) Decadal trends of main Eurasian oscillations and the Eastern Mediterranean precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol 72:209–220
Krichak SO, Alpert P (2005) Signatures of the NAO in the atmospheric circulation during wet winter months over the Mediterranean region. Theor Appl Climatol 82:27–39
Krichak SO, Breitgand JS, Gualdi S, Feldstein SB (2014) Teleconnection–extreme precipitation relationships over the Mediterranean region. Theor Appl Climatol 117:679–692
Moore GWK, Pickart RS, Renfrew IA (2011) Complexities in the climate of the subpolar North Atlantic: a case study from 2007. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 137:757–767
Papadopoulos VP, Josey SA, Bartzokas A, Somot S, Ruiz S, Drakopoulou P (2012) Large-scale atmospheric circulation favoring deep- and intermediate-water formation in the Mediterranean Sea. J Climate 25:6079–6091
Putniković S, Tošić I, Djurdjević V (2016) Circulation weather types and their influence on precipitation in Serbia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 128:649–662
Putniković S, Tošić I, Lazić L, Pejanović G (2018) The influence of the large-scale circulation patterns on temperature in Serbia. Atmos Res 213:465–475
Quadrelli R, Pavan V, Molteni F (2001) Wintertime variability of Mediterranean precipitation and its links with large-scale circulation anomalies. Clim Dyn 17:457–466
Reale M, Lionello P (2013) Synoptic climatology of winter intense precipitation events along the Mediterranean coasts. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1707–1722
Reale M, Salon S, Somot S, Solidoro C, Giorgi F, Cossarini G, Lazzari P, Crise A, Sevault F (2020) Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on nutrients dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea in the extended winter season (October-March) 1961–1999. Clim Res. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01620
Riaz SMF, Iqbal MJ, Hameed S (2017) Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter climate of Germany. Tellus a: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 69(1):1406263. https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1406263
Rodríguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, Sáenz J (2001) Winter precipitation over the Iberian peninsula and its relationship to circulation indices. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5:233–244
Serreze MC, Carse F, Barry RG, Rogers JC (1997) Icelandic low cyclone activity: climatological features, linkages with the NAO, and relationships with recent changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J Climate 10:453–464
Spinoni J, Szalai S, Szentimrey T, Lakatos M, Bihari Z, Nagy A, Nemeth A, Kovacs T, Mihic D, Petrovic P, Krzic A, Hiebl J, Auer I, Milkovic J, Stepanek P, Zahradnicek P, Kilar P, Limanowka D, Pyrc R, Cheval S, Birsan MV, Dumitrescu A, Deak G, Matei M, Antolovic I, Nejedlik P, Stastny P, Kajaba P, Bochnicek O, Galo D, Mikulova K, Nabyvanets Y, Skrynyk O, Krakovska S, Gnatiuk N, Tolasz R, Antofie T, Vogt JV (2015) Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961–2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variables. Int J Climatol 35:1322–1341
Tošić I (2004) Spatial and temporal variability of winter and summer precipitation over Serbia and Montenegro. Theor Appl Climatol 77:47–56
Tošić I, Hrnjak I, Gavrilov MB, Unkašević M, Marković SB, Lukić T (2014) Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation in Vojvodina. Theor Appl Climatol 117:331–341
Tošić I, Unkašević M (2014) Analysis of wet and dry periods in Serbia. Int J Climatol 34:1357–2136
Tošić I, Unkašević M, Putniković S (2017) Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014. Theor Appl Climatol 128:785–794
Trigo RM, Osborn TJ, Corte-Real J (2002) The North Atlantic oscillation influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms. Clim Res 20:9–17
Unkašević M, Tošić I (2013) Trends in temperature indices over Serbia: relationships to large-scale circulation patterns. Int J Climatol 33:3152–3161
van Loon H, Rogers JC (1978) The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe, part 1: general description. Mon Weather Rev 106:296–310
Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784–812
Xoplaki, E. (2002) Climate variability over the Mediterranean, PhD thesis, University of Bern, Switzerland
Ziv B, Dayan U, Kushnir Y, Roth C, Enzel Y (2006) Regional and global atmospheric patterns governing rainfall in the southern Levant. Int J Climatol 26:55–73
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Science, Education and Technological Development, under grant No. 451-03-9/2021-14/200162. We acknowledge the free availability of the GPCC precipitation data, the ECA&D dataset, and the NCEP NOAA for the teleconnection indices. The authors are grateful to Irida Lazić for the support in the construction of Fig. 3. The authors appreciate the suggestions of reviewers that led to an improvement of the paper.
Funding
This research was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Science, Education and Technological Development, under grant No. 451–03-9/2021–14/200162.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
IT contributed to the conceptualization, investigation, methodology, software, validation, visualization, and writing. SP contributed to the data curation, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, software, validation, and visualization.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Ivana Tošić and Suzana Putniković approved the manuscript.
Consent for publication
Ivana Tošić and Suzana Putniković approved the manuscript.
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tošić, I., Putniković, S. Influence of the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern on precipitation over Serbia. Theor Appl Climatol 146, 997–1006 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03777-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03777-9