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Annual and seasonal precipitation trends and their attributions in the Qinling Mountains, a climate transitional zone in China

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Abstract

In this study, annual and seasonal precipitation trends and their connection with large-scale climate indices in the Qinling Mountains (QMs) were investigated using the innovative trend analysis (ITA), based on observed monthly precipitation data between 1959 and 2016 from 32 meteorological stations. The results indicated a declining trend in annual precipitation in the QMs. Seasonally, a decreasing trend was also observed in spring and autumn, while increasing trends were observed in summer and winter. Spring and autumn precipitations significantly contributed to this observed decline in annual precipitation. More importantly, both low and high values indicated a declining trend, which would have a significant influence on ecology and livelihood in the QMs. Additionally, the results of wavelet coherence showed that annual precipitation is strongly associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), South Asian Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), South China Sea Summer Monsoon Index (SCSMI), and Southwest Australian Circulation Index (SWACI). However, its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West African Summer Monsoon Index (WASMI) was insignificant, and seasonally, EASMI had negative effects on the precipitation in each season. It was also observed that spring and autumn precipitations were more sensitive to SOI than SWACI, while SASMI had a strong positive relationship with winter precipitation, and SCSMI was more negatively related to autumn and winter precipitation. This study will provide scientific basis for precipitation forecast, prevention, and mitigation of flood in the future.

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Data availability

The meteorological data were provided by Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau. The climate circulation index were provided by NOAA National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao.php), National Climate Center of China (NCC) (http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/cn), and http://ljp.lasg.ac.cn/dct/page/.

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Acknowledgements

We would also like to thank Prof. Hartmut Graßl (Editor) and the anonymous reviewers for their invaluable comments and constructive suggestions used to improve the quality of the manuscript.

Funding

This study was funded by a General Program from the National Forestry Public Welfare Industry Scientific Research Project of China (No.201304309).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi’an, 710127, China

    Qing Meng, Hongying Bai & Chenhua Zhang

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Australia

    Ranjan Sarukkalige

  3. CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA, 6913, Australia

    Guobin Fu

  4. Collage of Hydrology & Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

    Wenhao Jia

Authors
  1. Qing Meng
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  2. Hongying Bai
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  3. Ranjan Sarukkalige
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  4. Guobin Fu
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  5. Wenhao Jia
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  6. Chenhua Zhang
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Contributions

Qing Meng: conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, resources, software, validation, visualization, roles/writing of original draft, writing of review, and editing. Hongying Bai: funding acquisition, investigation, project administration, resources, supervision, writing of review, and editing. Ranjan Sarukkalige: investigation, writing of review, and editing. Guobin Fu: investigation, writing of review, and editing. Wenhao Jia: writing of review and editing. Chenhua Zhang: software.

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Correspondence to Hongying Bai.

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Meng, Q., Bai, H., Sarukkalige, R. et al. Annual and seasonal precipitation trends and their attributions in the Qinling Mountains, a climate transitional zone in China. Theor Appl Climatol 144, 401–413 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03482-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03482-z

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