Abstract
In the past two decades, the regional climate in China has undergone significant change, resulting in crop yield reduction and complete failure. The goal of this study is to detect the variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and assess their impact on phenology. The daily meteorological data in the Midwest of Jilin Province during 1960–2014 were used in the study. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was adopted to analyze the non-linear trend and fluctuation in temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivity of the length of the maize growth period to temperature and precipitation was analyzed by the wavelet cross-transformation method. The results show that the trends of temperature and precipitation change are non-linear for different growth periods of maize, and the average temperature in the sowing-jointing stage was different from that in the other growth stages, showing a slight decrease trend, while the variation amplitude of maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature. This indicates that the temperature difference between day and night shows a gradually decreasing trend. Precipitation in the growth period also showed a decreasing non-linear trend, while the inter-annual variability with period of quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year dominated the variation of temperature and precipitation. The whole growth period was shortened by 10.7 days, and the sowing date was advanced by approximately 11 days. We also found that there was a significant resonance period among temperature, precipitation, and phenology. Overall, a negative correlation between phenology and temperature is evident, while a positive correlation with precipitation is exhibited. The results illustrate that the climate suitability for maize has reduced over the past decades.
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Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program of China under Grant No. 2013BAK05B01, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 41571491, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2412016KJ046), and China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (No. 2015001). The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their insightful and helpful comments to improve the manuscript.
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Guo, E., Zhang, J., Wang, Y. et al. Assessing non-linear variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and their impacts on phenology in the Midwest of Jilin Province, China. Theor Appl Climatol 132, 685–699 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2097-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2097-6