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Precursory signals of the major El Niño Southern Oscillation events

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Abstract

An exploration of the temporal evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from January 1876 to November 2011 by means of a new time domain called natural time reveals that the major ENSO extremes provide precursory signals that are maximized in a time window of almost 2 years. This finding may be used to improve the accuracy of the short-term prediction models of the ENSO extremes, thus enabling steps to be taken to ameliorate its disastrous impacts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Research Group, Division of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Athens, University Campus Bldg. Phys. V, 15784, Athens, Greece

    C. A. Varotsos & C. Tzanis

  2. Division of Electronic Engineering and Physics, University of Dundee, Dundee, Scotland, DD1 4HN, UK

    A. P. Cracknell

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  1. C. A. Varotsos
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Correspondence to C. A. Varotsos.

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Varotsos, C.A., Tzanis, C. & Cracknell, A.P. Precursory signals of the major El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Theor Appl Climatol 124, 903–912 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1464-4

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