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Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961–2010

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Abstract

The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961–2010 was carried out using mean monthly data from 64 meteorological stations. Change year detection was achieved using cumulative sum charts. The magnitude of trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method. The same formalism of least square method was used to assess the statistical significance of the determined trends. Maps of temperature trends were generated by applying a spatial regression method to visualize the detected tendencies. The obtained results indicate a negative temperature trend for the period before the change year except for winter and a more pronounced positive trend after the change year. Besides being more pronounced, the vast majority of trends after the change year were also clearly statistically significant. Our estimate of the average temperature trend over Serbia is in agreement with those obtained at the global and European scale. Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran’s I) indicate an apparent random spatial pattern of temperature trends across the Serbia for both periods before and after the change year.

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Acknowledgments

We greatly acknowledge data provided by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia. NAO and EA Index values are downloaded from ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/ea_index.tim. This study was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, under Grants No. III 43007, III 47014, TR 36035, TR 36020, and 176013.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, Bul. kralja Aleksandra 73, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia

    Branislav Bajat, Dragan Blagojević & Milan Kilibarda

  2. Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studenstki trg 3/3, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia

    Jelena Luković

  3. Faculty of Physics, Institute for Meteorology, University of Belgrade, Dobračina 16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia

    Ivana Tošić

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  1. Branislav Bajat
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  2. Dragan Blagojević
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  3. Milan Kilibarda
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  4. Jelena Luković
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  5. Ivana Tošić
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Correspondence to Ivana Tošić.

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Bajat, B., Blagojević, D., Kilibarda, M. et al. Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961–2010. Theor Appl Climatol 121, 289–301 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7

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