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Separation of the impact of climate change and human activity on streamflow in the upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, northeastern China

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Abstract

The Taoer River, a representative ecologically sensitive area in Northeast China, has undergone great climate changes and rapid social developments since 1961. Subsequently, a substantial alteration of the streamflow regime was observed and severe eco-environmental problems were becoming prominent. To provide decision makers the scientific basis for effective resource management and sound future planning, it is crucial to understand and assess the impacts of the climate variability and human activities on streamflow in this region. In this study, we combined an observation-based statistical analysis and physical modeling experiments to address this broad question. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope were used to examine the trends and the moving t test was used to identify change points for the streamflow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration datasets. A statistically significant upward trend (α = 5 %) was found for annual streamflow. An abrupt change point was identified in 1985 for the basin outlet station at Taonan. Accordingly, the streamflow was divided into baseline and changed period for attribution analysis. To investigate the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual streamflow, we applied a distributed hydrological model and six Budyko-type functions during the two periods. The results indicated that climate change and human activities accounted for about 45 and 55 % of the changes in streamflow, respectively.

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported jointly by the Project of Natural Science Fund of China (41171286), the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB428403 and 2010CB950904), the Knowledge Innovation Program (KZCX2-YW-326-1), and the 100 Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Hongbo Su, Renhua Zhang, Jing Tian, Shaohui Chen, Yongming Yang & Yuan Rong

  2. Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China

    Bin Li & Fang Chen

  3. Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Rutgers, University, Rutgers, NJ, 08901, USA

    Haibin Li

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  1. Bin Li
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Correspondence to Hongbo Su.

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Li, B., Su, H., Chen, F. et al. Separation of the impact of climate change and human activity on streamflow in the upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, northeastern China. Theor Appl Climatol 118, 271–283 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1032-8

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