Abstract
Winter precipitation occurs over North India due to the passage of a synoptic system originating from the Mediterranean known as western disturbances (WDs). Heavy rainfall, cold waves and fog are associated with WDs. Snowfall during winter over high-altitude regions of the Himalayas is vital for maintaining glaciers and Himalayan rivers, thus acting as a lifeline for billions of people living on the planes. Any predictive information about rainfall well in advance helps farmers fight drought situations, and forecasts of extreme events help save lives and property. In the present study, the multi-model ensemble based extended range forecast of winter rainfall over North India during the 2020–21 winter season is analyzed using the outputs of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 coupled model. The real-time forecast during the 2020–21 winter and hindcast during the 2003–2019 period are analyzed in this study. The study evaluates the deterministic and probabilistic skill of the extended range prediction system (EPS) in forecasting winter rainfall over North India on a weekly lead time scale and confirms the accuracy and usefulness of EPS from an operational point of view. EPS is skilful in predicting winter rainfall up to three weeks lead time in advance with low bias and low RMSE noted during the hindcast period. Positive anomaly correlation coefficients are observed in all lead time forecasts. Negative departure in rainfall during the January–February months is adequately captured in week 1, week 2 and week 3 forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts are determined using the ROC curve. Potential predictability of EPS is calculated using signal-to-noise ratio for all lead time forecasts.
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The IMD gridded rainfall data with a resolution of 0.25 degrees is publicly available at https://www.imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Griddata/Rainfall_25_NetCDF.html. Requests for extended-range rainfall data can be made to IMD.
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India Meteorological Department (IMD) is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MOES), Government of India, New Delhi. Special thanks to Reba Mary Raju and Sebin John for their help in creating shapefiles. Authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department for providing IMD-GPM data.
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Thayyil Mandodi, M., Pattanaik, D.R. Predictive skill of extended range forecast of 2020–21 winter precipitation over North India. Meteorol Atmos Phys 135, 26 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00965-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-023-00965-2