Abstract
The occurrences of some intense rainfall episodes in Somalia in recent years, resulting in flash floods in riverine areas, prompted researchers to investigate the significance of long-term shifts in severe rainfall across Somalia in the past century. The study aimed to examine the changes in precipitation trends in Somalia by carrying out an analysis of the frequency of rainfall extremes during the two different phases 1901–1958 and 1959–2016, as well as return level analysis. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope were used to measure the changes in precipitation trends. The generalized extreme value distribution was also fitted to the two phases considered in the analysis. The study revealed that heavy rainfall events and flood risks are becoming more common in Somalia. Furthermore, the behavior of extreme rainfall has evolved over the two phases considered. This evolution is shown by the presence of change in distribution (using Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Anderson Darling tests) in phase I (1901–1958) and phase II (1959–2016) and the significant difference in the maximum likelihood estimates of the location parameter for the two phases. The findings provide some intriguing results that will be beneficial to hydrological planning and disaster management.
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Source: Federal Republic of Somalia (2013))
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Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study were secondary data obtained from the Climate Knowledge Portal of the World Bank Group at https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org.
Code availability
The code that supports the findings of this study is available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
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All authors contributed to the preparation of the manuscript. JM performed data collection, analysis, first draft preparation and organization of the manuscript. AAW contributed to the manuscript by writing the introduction section of the manuscript. DAA wrote the materials and methods section of the manuscript. MBA reviewed and edited the first draft. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Mohamed, J., Ali, D.A., Warsame, A.A. et al. Two phases of long-term shift in extreme precipitation in Somalia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 54 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00896-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00896-4