Abstract
Objective
The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of nutritional indicators and clinicopathological parameters in predicting the progression and prognosis for pathological stage II-III rectal cancer (RC) patients without neoadjuvant radiotherapy. In addition, we sought to explore the high-risk population who may require postoperative chemotherapy.
Methods
A total of 894 consecutive RC patients were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were performed to identify the independent risk factors for PFS and OS. The nomogram and calibration curves were conducted according to multivariable analysis result. Kaplan–Meier survival curves and log-rank tests were performed for different groups. Finally, random survival forest (RSF) model was developed to predict the probability of progression.
Results
Our results revealed that CEA level, pathological stage, tumor deposit, and PNI were independently associated with PFS in RC patients. Similarly, the results indicated that CEA level, pathological stage, tumor deposit, PNI, and NRI were independently associated with OS. RSF model revealed that group 1 had the highest risk of progression at the 12th month of follow-up, group 2 had the highest risk of progression at the 15th month of follow-up, while group 3 had the highest risk of progression at the 9th month of follow-up. Besides, subgroup analysis suggested that the high-risk group needs postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, while patients in the low- and moderate-risk groups may not need postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. Finally, we validated our results with the SEER database.
Conclusions
In conclusion, we demonstrated that preoperative nutritional indicator and clinicopathological parameters could act as auxiliary prognostication tools for RC patients without neoadjuvant radiotherapy. We also established follow-up strategies for different groups of patients. Collectively, incorporating nutritional assessment into risk stratification for RC resection is crucial and should be an integral part of preoperative planning.
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Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Abbreviations
- RC :
-
Rectal cancer
- LARC :
-
Locally advanced rectal cancer
- KPS :
-
Karnofsky performance status
- AJCC :
-
American joint Committee on cancer
- TNM :
-
Tumor-node-metastasis
- CEA :
-
Carcinoembryonic antigen
- BMI :
-
Body mass index
- PNI :
-
Prognostic nutritional index
- NRI :
-
Nutritional risk index
- PAR :
-
Platelet to albumin ratio
- CT :
-
Computed tomography
- MRI :
-
Magnetic resonance imaging
- PET-CT :
-
Positron emission tomography-CT
- PFS :
-
Progression-free survival
- OS :
-
Overall survival
- SEER :
-
Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results
- RSF :
-
Random survival forest
- C-index :
-
Concordance-index
- HR :
-
Hazard ratio
- CI :
-
Confidence interval
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Acknowledgements
We thank all the investigators and patients who participated in the present study.
Funding
This work was supported by the Joint Funds for the National Clinical Key Specialty Construction Program (Grant No. 2021), the Fujian Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer Radiotherapy and Immunotherapy (Grant No. 2020Y2012), and Fujian Clinical Research Center for Radiation and Therapy of Digestive, Respiratory and Genitourinary Malignancies (Grant No. 2021Y2014).
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YY, JW, HW, ZW, BX, and LS designed this study. YY, HW, SW, and LH contributed to the data collection. YY, HW, and ZW analyzed the data. JW, BX, and LS supervised the study. YY, HW, and ZW wrote the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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The current study was approved by the ethics committee of Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital (K2021-050–01), Fuzhou, China, and conducted in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and its amendment. All patients provided written informed consent prior to treatment, and all the information was anonymized prior to analysis.
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Yilin Yu, Haixia Wu and Zhiping Wang contributed equally as first authors to this manuscript.
Junxin Wu, Benhua Xu and Lingdong Shao contributed equally as corresponding authors to this manuscript.
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Yu, Y., Wu, J., Wu, H. et al. A large-scale study integrating nutritional indicators and clinicopathological parameters to evaluate prognosis, follow-up, and postoperative chemotherapy decisions in rectal cancer patients. Support Care Cancer 31, 686 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00520-023-08147-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00520-023-08147-x