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A process-based model to simulate sugarcane orange rust severity from weather data in Southern Brazil

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Abstract

Forecasting the severity of plant diseases is an emerging need for farmers and companies to optimize management actions and to predict crop yields. Process-based models are viable tools for this purpose, thanks to their capability to reproduce pathogen epidemiological processes as a function of the variability of agro-environmental conditions. We formalized the key phases of the life cycle of Puccinia kuenhii (W. Krüger) EJ Butler, the causal agent of orange rust on sugarcane, into a new simulation model, called ARISE (Orange Rust Intensity Index). ARISE is composed of generic models of epidemiological processes modulated by partial components of host resistance and was parameterized according to P. kuenhii hydro-thermal requirements. After calibration and evaluation with field data, ARISE was executed on sugarcane areas in Brazil, India and Australia to assess the pathogen suitability in different environments. ARISE performed well in calibration and evaluation, where it accurately matched observations of orange rust severity. It also reproduced a large spatial and temporal variability in simulated areas, confirming that the pathogen suitability is strictly dependent on warm temperatures and high relative air humidity. Further improvements will entail coupling ARISE with a sugarcane growth model to assess yield losses, while further testing the model with field data, using input weather data at a finer resolution to develop a decision support system for sugarcane growers.

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Availability of data and materials

The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author, Valeriano, TTB.

Code availability

The model source code is available on request from the corresponding author, Valeriano, TTB.

Funding

This research was supported by the Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior—Brasil (CAPES)—Finance code 001 and by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico—Brasil (CNPQ)—Finance code 141291/2017-6. This research was also supported by the AgriDigit-Agromodelli project (DM n. 36502 of 20/12/2018), funded by the Italian Ministry of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies and Tourism and by MatHiLDE (Modelling pests and diseases impact on hazelnut production) project, funded by Luxembourg National Research Fund—Industrial Fellowships (2019-1 call).

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Correspondence to Taynara Tuany Borges Valeriano.

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The research of this paper was partly carried out while Taynara Tuany Borges Valeriano was at the School of Agricultural and Veterinarian Sciences, São Paulo State University (Unesp), Jaboticabal, Brazil.

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Valeriano, T.T.B., de Souza Rolim, G., Manici, L.M. et al. A process-based model to simulate sugarcane orange rust severity from weather data in Southern Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 65, 2037–2051 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02162-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-021-02162-5

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