Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Warming winters due to climate change may critically affect temperate tree species. Insufficiently cold winters are thought to result in fewer viable flower buds and the subsequent development of fewer fruits or nuts, decreasing the yield of an orchard or fecundity of a species. The best existing approximation for a threshold of sufficient cold accumulation, the “chilling requirement” of a species or variety, has been quantified by manipulating or modeling the conditions that result in dormant bud breaking. However, the physiological processes that affect budbreak are not the same as those that determine yield. This study sought to test whether budbreak-based chilling thresholds can reasonably approximate the thresholds that affect yield, particularly regarding the potential impacts of climate change on temperate tree crop yields. County-wide yield records for almond (Prunus dulcis), pistachio (Pistacia vera), and walnut (Juglans regia) in the Central Valley of California were compared with 50 years of weather records. Bayesian nonparametric function estimation was used to model yield potentials at varying amounts of chill accumulation. In almonds, average yields occurred when chill accumulation was close to the budbreak-based chilling requirement. However, in the other two crops, pistachios and walnuts, the best previous estimate of the budbreak-based chilling requirements was 19–32 % higher than the chilling accumulations associated with average or above average yields. This research indicates that physiological processes beyond requirements for budbreak should be considered when estimating chill accumulation thresholds of yield decline and potential impacts of climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Recent work by Luedeling estimating the chilling requirement of the cultivar ‘Payne’ is not compared here because of the cultivar’s much earlier bud-break and much lower chilling requirement than common cultivars, and its sparse acreage.

References

  • Alburquerque N, Garcia-Montiel F, Carrillo A, Burgos L (2008) Chilling and heat requirements of sweet cherry cultivars and the relationship between altitude and the probability of satisfying the chill requirements. Environ Exp Bot 64(2):162–170. doi:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2008.01.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alonso JM, Espiau MT, Anson JM, Socias i Company R (2005) Estimation of chilling and heat requirements for blooming in almond from phenological and climatic temporary series. Itea 2005. 101 (ref):4, 282–302

  • Asai WK, Micke WC, Kester DE, Rough D (1996) The evaluation and selection of current varieties. In: Micke WC (ed) Almond production manual. Regents of the University of California, Oakland, pp 52–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashcroft GL, Richardson EA, Seeley SD (1977) A statistical method of determining chill unit and growing degree hour requirements for deciduous fruit trees. Hortscience 1977. 12 (ref):4, 347–348

  • Aslamarz AA, Vahdati K, Rahemi M, Hassani D (2009) Estimation of chilling and heat requirements of some persian walnut cultivars and genotypes. Hortscience 44(3):697–701

    Google Scholar 

  • Barba NW, Melo-Abreu JPd (2002) Validation of rest completion models in peach trees in two regions of Portugal. Acta Hortic (445–449)

  • Beede RH, Padilla J, Starling J (1997) Growth, yield and nut quality responses in a commercial pistachio orchard from dormant applied horticultural mineral oil. Production Research. Administrative Committee for Pistachios, Fresno

    Google Scholar 

  • Black MW (1952) The problem of prolonged rest in deciduous fruit trees. Proc13th Intern Hort Congr, London 2:1122–1131

  • California Agricultural Statistics Service (2013) 2012 California Almond Acreage Report. California Almond Acreage Report. Californian Department of Food and Agriculture, Sacramento

    Google Scholar 

  • Campoy JA, Ruiz D, Egea J (2011) Dormancy in temperate fruit trees in a global warming context: a review. Sci Hortic (Amst) 130(2):357–372. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2011.07.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cesaraccio C, Spano D, Duce P, Snyder RL (2001) An improved model for determining degree-day values from daily temperature data. Int J Biometeorol 45(4):161–169

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Champagnat P (1989) Rest and activity in vegetative buds of trees. Ann Sci Forestieres (Paris) 46(SUPPL):9S–26S

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chuine I, Cour P, Rousseau DD (1998) Fitting models predicting dates of flowering of temperate-zone trees using simulated annealing. Plant Cell Environ 21(5):455–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Couvillon GA, King GA, Moore CM, Bush P (1975) Obtaining small peach plants containing all bud types for rest and dormancy studies. Hortscience 10(1):78–79

    Google Scholar 

  • Crane JC (1986) Pistachio. In: Monselise SP (ed) CRC handbook of fruit set and development. CRC Press, Inc., Boca Raton, pp 389–400

    Google Scholar 

  • Dennis FG (2003) Problems in standardizing methods for evaluating the chilling requirements for the breaking of dormancy in buds of woody plants. Hortscience 38(3):347–350

    Google Scholar 

  • Egea J, Ortega E, Martinez-Gomez P, Dicenta F (2003) Chilling and heat requirements of almond cultivars for flowering. Environ Exp Bot 50(1):79–85. doi:10.1016/s0098-8472(03)00002-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erez A, Fishman S (1998) The dynamic model for chilling evaluation in peach buds. Acta Horticult 507–510:1998

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferguson L, Polito V, Kallsen C (2008) The pistachio tree: botany and physiology. In: Ferguson L (ed) Pistachio production manual, 5th edn. Omnipress, Madison, pp 40–43

    Google Scholar 

  • Fishman S, Erez A, Couvillon GA (1987) The temperature-dependence of dormancy breaking in plants—mathematical analysis of a 2-step model involving a cooperative transition. J Theor Biol 124(4):473–483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garrett AJM (1991) Ockham’s razor. In: Grandy WT, Schick LH (eds) Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 357–364

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Fay PA, Hahn GL, Izaurralde RC, Kimball BA, Mader TL, Morgan JA, Ort DR, Polley HW, Thomson AM, Wolfe DW (2008) Agriculture. In: Backlund P, Janetos A, Schimel D (eds) The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity. The United States Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington D.C., p 362

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendricks LC (1996) Orchard planning, design, and development. In: Micke WC (ed) Almond production manual. Regents of the University of California, Oakland, pp 47–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendricks LC, Coates WW, Elkins RB, McGranahan GH, Phillips HA, Ramos DE, Reil WO, Snyder RG (1998) Selection of varieties. In: Ramos DE (ed) Walnut production manual. University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Oakland, pp 84–89

    Google Scholar 

  • Iwanami H, Moriya-Tanaka Y, Honda C, Wada M, Moriya S, Okada K, Haji T, Abe K (2012) Relationships among apple fruit abscission, source strength, and cultivar. Sci Hortic 146:39–44. doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2012.08.017

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jackson LE, Santos-Martin F, Hollander AD, Horwath WR, Howitt RE, Kramer B, O’Geen TO, Orlove BS, Six JW, Sokolow SK, Sumner DA, Tomich TP, Wheeler SM (2009) Potential for adaptation to climate change in an agricultural landscape in the Central Valley of California. California Climate Change Center, Sacramento

    Google Scholar 

  • Kallsen P, Parfitt DE, Maranto J, Holtz BA (2009) New pistachio varieties show promise for California cultivation. Calif Agric 63(1):18–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kester DE, Griggs WH (1959a) Fruit setting in the almond: the effect of cross-pollinating various percentages of flowers. Proc Amer Soc Hort Sci 74:206–213

    Google Scholar 

  • Kester DE, Griggs WH (1959b) Fruit setting in the almond: the pattern of flower and fruit drop. Proc Amer Soc Hort Sci 74:214–219

    Google Scholar 

  • Legave JM, Farrera I, Almeras T, Calleja M (2008) Selecting models of apple flowering time and understanding how global warming has had an impact on this trait. J Hortic Sci Biotechnol 83(1):76–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Lopez G, Favreau RR, Smith C, DeJong TM (2010) L-PEACH: a computer-based model to understand how peach trees grow. HortTechnol 20(6):983–990

    Google Scholar 

  • Luedeling E, Brown PH (2011) A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees. Int J Biometeorol 55(3):411–421. doi:10.1007/s00484-010-0352-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luedeling E, Gassner A (2012) Partial least squares regression for analyzing walnut phenology in California. Agric For Meteorol 158:43–52. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luedeling E, Zhang M, McGranahan G, Leslie C (2009a) Validation of winter chill models using historic records of walnut phenology. Agric For Meteorol 149(11):1854–1864

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luedeling E, Zhang MH, Girvetz EH (2009b) Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950–2099. PLoS One 4 (7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0006166

  • McGranahan G, Leslie CA, Phillips HA, Dandekar A (1998) Genetic improvement. In: Ramos DE (ed) Walnut production manual. University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Oakland, pp 16–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Ortega E, Egea J, Dicenta F (2004) Effective pollination period in almond cultivars. Hortscience 39(1):19–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Polito VS (1998) Floral biology: flower structure, development, and pollination. In: Ramos DE (ed) Walnut production manual. University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Oakland, pp 127–132

    Google Scholar 

  • Polito VS, Pinney K, Buchner R, Olson W (2002) Streptomycin applications to control walnut blight disease can prevent fertilization and increase fruit drop. Hortscience 37(6):940–942

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pope KS, Dose V, Da Silva D, Brown PH, Leslie CA, DeJong TM (2013) Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis. Glob Chang Biol 19(5):1518–1525. doi:10.1111/gcb.12130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramirez L, Sagredo KX, Reginato GH (2010) Prediction models for chilling and heat requirements to estimate full bloom of almond cultivars in the Central Valley of Chile. Acta Horticult 872:107–112

    Google Scholar 

  • Rattigan K, Hill SJ (1986) Relationship between temperature and flowering in almond. Aust J Exp Agric 26(3):399–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saure MC (1985) Dormancy release in deciduous fruit trees. Hortic Rev 7:239–300

    Google Scholar 

  • Westwood MN (1993) Temperate-zone pomology: physiology and culture, 3rd edn. Timber Press, Portland

    Google Scholar 

  • Spann TM, Beede RH, Dejong TM (2008) Seasonal carbohydrate storage and mobilization in bearing and nonbearing pistachio (Pistacia vera) trees. Tree Physiol 28(2):207–213

  • Zhang J, Taylor C (2011) The dynamic model provides the best description of the chill process on ‘Sirora’ pistachio trees in Australia. Hortscience 46(3):420–425

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are indebted to the generations of employees of the California County Agricultural Commissioners, without whose meticulous record keeping this analysis would not have been possible. This work was supported by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (#SCB09044).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, 70 Cottonwood Street, Davis, CA, 95695, USA

    Katherine S. Pope, Patrick H. Brown & Theodore M. DeJong

  2. Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysiks, EURATOM Association, Garching bei München, Germany

    Volker Dose

  3. INRA, UMR 1334 Plant Genetic Improvement and Adaption (AGAP), Montpellier, France

    David Da Silva

Authors
  1. Katherine S. Pope
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Volker Dose
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. David Da Silva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Patrick H. Brown
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Theodore M. DeJong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Katherine S. Pope.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(PDF 253 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Pope, K.S., Dose, V., Da Silva, D. et al. Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds. Int J Biometeorol 59, 707–715 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0881-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0881-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation