Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Spatiotemporal simulation, early warning, and driving factors of soil heavy metal pollution in a typical industrial city in southeast China

  • ORIGINAL PAPER
  • Published:
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Identifying the current pollution status, future trends, and driving factors is a crucial prerequisite for protecting and managing soil environmental quality in light of the challenging soil heavy metal pollution situation. In this study, a typical industrial city in southeast China was selected as the study area. The environmental capacity of 12 heavy metals was first measured for the evaluation of soil heavy metal pollution, and then spatiotemporal change was simulated using indicator Kriging to warn the pollution risk. Finally, the driving factors of heavy metal pollution were analyzed using random forest and geographical detectors. The results revealed that the average environmental capacity index was 0.768, at a medium capacity level. The environmental capacity of each heavy metal showed a decreasing trend from 2016 to 2035. In 2035, the dynamic environmental capacity of each heavy metal element will have decreased by more than 75% if no preventative and remedial measures are taken. The distance from rivers, fine particulate matter, organic matter content, population density, and distance from industrial enterprises were the main factors contributing to heavy metal pollution in soil. The interaction effect of two environmental factors will mostly lead to the intensification of pollution. Based on the results, this study discussed strategies for controlling and remediating the polluted land. These findings could support the source investigation and early warning of soil heavy metal pollution, which are crucial to manag soil pollution and alleviating environmental quality issues.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author reasonable request.

References

  • Argyropoulos G, Samara C (2011) Development and application of a robotic chemical mass balance model for source apportionment of atmospheric particulate matter. Environ Model Softw 26(4):469–481

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Askari MS, Alamdari P, Chahardoli S, Afshari A (2020) Quantification of heavy metal pollution for environmental assessment of soil condition. Environ Monit Assess 192(3):1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen J, Bi J, Wu J, Yang G (2011) Prediction of the trend for soil pollution of heavy metals in soils at Huzhou and Evaluation of the environmental capacity. Earth Environ 39(4):531–535

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen T, Chang Q, Clevers JGPW, Kooistra L (2015) Rapid identification of soil cadmium pollution risk at regional scale based on visible and near-infrared spectroscopy. Environ Pollut 206:217–226

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen T, Chang Q, Liu J, Clevers JGPW, Kooistra L (2016) Identification of soil heavy metal sources and improvement in spatial mapping based on soil spectral information: a case study in northwest China. Sci Total Environ 565:155–164

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Wang W, Shi H, Wang M, Xu C (2019a) Comparative case study on the influence of spatial distribution of heavy metals in regional area. Res Environ Sci 32(7):1213–1223

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Weng L, Ma J, Wu X, Li Y (2019b) Review on the last ten years of research on source identification of heavy metal pollution in soils. J Agro Environ Sci 38(10):2219–2238

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen BY, Liu KL, Liu YL, Qin J, Peng ZH (2021) Source identification, spatial distribution pattern, risk assessment and influencing factors for soil heavy metal pollution in a high-tech industrial development zone in Central China. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 27(2):560–574

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Wang L, Hu B, Xu J, Liu X (2022) Potential driving forces and probabilistic health risks of heavy metal accumulation in the soils from an e-waste area, southeast China. Chemosphere 289:133182

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Eid EM, Galal TM, El-Bebany AF (2020) Prediction models for monitoring heavy-metal accumulation by wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) plants grown in sewage sludge amended soil. Int J Phytoremediat 22(10):1000–1008

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fan Y, Wang Y (2009) Background characteristics of soil elementsin four plains of zhejiang province. Geophys Geochem Explor 33(2):132–134

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fan M, Yang H, Huang X, Cao R, Zhang Z, Hu J, Qin F (2016) Chemical forms and risk assessment of heavy metals in soils around a typical coal-fired power plant located in the mountainous area. China Environ Sci 36(8):2425–2436

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fu C, Wang W, Pan J, Lu H, Liao Q (2014) Research of heavy metal environmental capacity in Lishui District. Nanjing Chin J Soil Sci 45(3):734–742

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gan Y, Huang X, Li S, Liu N, Li YC, Freidenreich A, Wang W, Wang R, Dai J (2019) Source quantification and potential risk of mercury, cadmium, arsenic, lead, and chromium in farmland soils of Yellow River Delta. J Clean Prod 221:98–107

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Guan Q, Zhao R, Pan N, Wang F, Yang Y, Luo H (2019) Source apportionment of heavy metals in farmland soil of Wuwei, China: comparison of three receptor models. J Clean Prod 237:117792

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • He M, Yan P, Yu H, Yang S, Xu J, Liu X (2020) Spatiotemporal modeling of soil heavy metals and early warnings from scenarios-based prediction. Chemosphere 255:126908

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hou D, O’Connor D, Igalavithana AD, Alessi DS, Luo J, Tsang DCW, Sparks DL, Yamauchi Y, Rinklebe J, Ok YS (2020) Metal contamination and bioremediation of agricultural soils for food safety and sustainability. Nat Rev Earth Environ 1(7):366–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang YF, Guo X (2019) Multivariate and geostatistical analyses of heavy metal pollution from different sources among farmlands in the Poyang Lake region. China J Soils Sedim 19(5):2472–2484

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang H, Wang C, Bai L, Han C, Chen X, Wang C (2020) Advances and prospects in lake environment science and engineering: a review. Hupo Kexue 32(5):1278–1296

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Y, You Q, Chen X, Jia X, Xu K, Chen Q, Chen S, Hu B, Shi Z (2022) Preliminary risk assessment of regional industrial enterprise sites based on big data. Sci the Total Environ 838:156609

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Han P, Ren D, Luo N, Wang J (2017) Influence factor analysis of farmland soil heavy metal based on the geographical detector. Sci Agric Sin 50(21):4138–4148

    Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Cundy AB, Chen W, Liu R, Lv S (2020) Dynamic capacity modelling of soil environment carrying capacity, and developing a soil quality early warning framework for development land in China. J Clean Prod 257:120450

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Geng T, Shen W, Zhang J, Zhou Y (2021) Quantifying the influencing factors and multi-factor interactions affecting cadmium accumulation in limestone-derived agricultural soil using random forest (RF) approach. Ecotoxicol Environ Saf 209:111773

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liang F, Pan Y, Peng H, Zeng M, Huang C (2022) Time-space simulation, health risk warning and policy recommendations of environmental capacity for heavy metals in the pearl river Basin, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 19(8):4694

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lin Y-P, Cheng B-Y, Shyu G-S, Chang T-K (2010) Combining a finite mixture distribution model with indicator kriging to delineate and map the spatial patterns of soil heavy metal pollution in Chunghua County, central Taiwan. Environ Pollut 158(1):235–244

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu P, Wu K, Luo M (2020) Potential risk factors identification of heavy metals spatial variation in typical agricultural land topsoil of Taihu Basin. Resour Environ Yangtze Basin 29(3):609–622

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Chen S, Yan X, Liang T, Yang X, El-Naggar A, Liu J, Chen H (2021) Evaluation of potential ecological risks in potential toxic elements contaminated agricultural soils: correlations between soil contamination and polymetallic mining activity. J Environ Manag 300:113679

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lu Q, Wang S, Bai X, Liu F, Li C, Deng Y, Tian S (2021) Quantitative assessment of human health risks under different land uses based on soil heavy metal pollution sources. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 27(2):327–343

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lv Y, Xie L, Zhu W, Zhou Y, Sun H (2020) Risk prediction of heavy metals in farmland soil based on environmental capacity: case study of the county scale in Northern Zhejiang Province. Resour Environ Yangtze Basin 29(1):253–264

    Google Scholar 

  • Obiora SC, Chukwu A, Davies TC (2016) Heavy metals and health risk assessment of arable soils and food crops around Pb-Zn mining localities in Enyigba, southeastern Nigeria. J Afr Earth Sc 116:182–189

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pan YJ, Ding L, Xie SY, Zeng M, Zhang J, Peng HX (2021) Spatiotemporal simulation, early warning, and policy recommendations of the soil heavy metal environmental capacity of the agricultural land in a typical industrial city in China: Case of Zhongshan City. J Clean Prod 285:124849

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Qu M, Li W, Zhang C, Wang S, Yang Y, He L (2013) Source apportionment of heavy metals in soils using multivariate statistics and geostatistics. Pedosphere 23(04):437–444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shao W, Guan Q, Tan Z, Luo H, Li H, Sun Y, Ma Y (2021) Application of BP - ANN model in evaluation of soil quality in the arid area, northwest China. Soil Tillage Res 208:104907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen TL, Liu L, Li YC, Wang Q, Dai JL, Wang RQ (2019) Long-term effects of untreated wastewater on soil bacterial communities. Sci Total Environ 646:940–950

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shi T, Hu Z, Shi Z, Guo L, Chen Y, Li Q, Wu G (2018) Geo-detection of factors controlling spatial patterns of heavy metals in urban topsoil using multi-source data. Sci Total Environ 643:451–459

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Six L, Smolders E (2014) Future trends in soil cadmium concentration under current cadmium fluxes to European agricultural soils. Sci Total Environ 485:319–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tan K, Wang H, Chen L, Du Q, Du P, Pan C (2020) Estimation of the spatial distribution of heavy metal in agricultural soils using airborne hyperspectral imaging and random forest. J Hazard Mater 382:120987

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tian K, Li M, Hu W, Fan Y, Huang B, Zhao Y (2022) Environmental capacity of heavy metals in intensive agricultural soils: Insights from geochemical baselines and source apportionment. Sci Total Environ 819:153078

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente AB, Jordan MM, Sanfeliu T, Sanchez A, Esteban MD (2012) Air pollution prediction models of particles, As, Cd, Ni and Pb in a highly industrialized area in Castellon (NE, Spain). Environ Earth Sci 66(3):879–888

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Xu C (2017) Geodetector: principle and prospective. Acta Geogr Sin 72(1):116–134

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang J-F, Li X-H, Christakos G, Liao Y-L, Zhang T, Gu X, Zheng X-Y (2010) Geographical detectors-based health risk assessment and its application in the neural tube defects study of the Heshun Region, China. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 24(1):107–127

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Cai L-M, Wen H-H, Luo J, Wang Q-S, Liu X (2019) Spatial distribution and source apportionment of heavy metals in soil from a typical county-level city of Guangdong Province, China. Sci Total Environ 655:92–101

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Yilihamu Q, Yuan M, Bai H, Xu H, Wu J (2020) Prediction models of soil heavy metal(loid)s concentration for agricultural land in Dongli: a comparison of regression and random forest. Ecol Indic 119:106801

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang YZ, Duan XJ, Wang L (2020) Spatial distribution and source analysis of heavy metals in soils influenced by industrial enterprise distribution: case study in Jiangsu Province. Sci Total Environ 710:134953

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Zhang Y, Cheng J, Li Y, Li F, Li Y, Shi Z (2022) Pollution assessment and source apportionment of soil heavy metals in a coastal industrial city, Zhejiang, Southeastern China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 19(6):3335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu X, Huang X, Li C, Hu J, Tang F, Zhang Z (2018) Soil heavy metal pollution degrees and metal chemical forms around the coal mining area in Western Guizhou. Res Soil Water Conserv 25(6):335–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Xia X, Yang Z, Cui Y, Li Y, Hou Q, Yu T (2014) Soil heavy metal concentrations and their typical input and output fluxes on the southern Song-nen Plain, Heilongjiang Province, China. J Geochem Explor 139:85–96

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yan N, Liu W, Xie H, Gao L, Han Y, Wang M, Li H (2016) Distribution and assessment of heavy metals in the surface sediment of Yellow River. China J Environ Sci 39(01):45–51

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yan T, Zhao W, Yu X, Li H, Gao Z, Ding M, Yue J (2022) Evaluating heavy metal pollution and potential risk of soil around a coal mining region of Tai’an City. China Alex Eng J 61(3):2156–2165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Cheng J, Wang Z, Mu J, Jing L (2009) Soil-environmental capacity in different vegetative types in Shandong province. J Soil Sci 40(2):366–368

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang G, Wu H (2018) From problems to solutions: soil functions for realization of sustainable development goals. Bull Chin Acad Sci 33(2):124–134

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Xie G, Sun H (2016) Evaluation of soil heavy metal pollution of geological anomaly area based on improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methodA case study of Guannan in Jiangsu Province. China J Agro Environ Sci 35(11):2107–2115

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang K, Yang J, Ji Y, Xia Y (2018) Spatiotemporal simulation and predication of heavy metal(loid) concentrations in coal chemical industrial areas with a soil environmental capacity model. Int J Coal Sci Technol 5:508–518

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang B, Liu L, Huang Z, Hou H, Zhao L, Sun Z (2021) Application of stochastic model to assessment of heavy metal(loid)s source apportionment and bio-availability in rice fields of karst area. Sci Total Environ 793:148614

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao Y, Tang S, Li Y, Shi R, Ju X, Wang R (2009) Application of ordinary and indicator Kriging methods for screening non-rice-cropping areas. Acta Sci Circum 29(8):1780–1787

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou X, Wang X (2019) Impact of industrial activities on heavy metal contamination in soils in three major urban agglomerations of China. J Clean Prod 230:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was founded by The Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (No.LZ21D010002); the Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province (2023C03134); the Zhejiang Province Public Welfare Technology Application Research Project (LGN22D010003); and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41771244)

Funding

This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (LZ21D010002); the Key Research and Development Program of Zhejiang Province (2023C03134); the Zhejiang Province Public Welfare Technology Application Research Project (LGN22D010003); and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41771244).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Affairs, Institute of Land Science and Property, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China

    Jiayi Ma, Kaige Lei, Yi Li & Yan Li

  2. Zhejiang Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, Hangzhou, 310007, China

    Yanbin Zhang

  3. College of Materials and Environmental Engineering, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, 310018, China

    Feng Li

  4. College of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, 311300, China

    Fang Xia

Authors
  1. Jiayi Ma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kaige Lei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yi Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Yanbin Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Feng Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Fang Xia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Yan Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

JM: Conceptualization, formal analysis, writing—original draft, writing—review and editing. KL: Methodology, software, visualization. YL: Conceptualization, data curation, writing—review and editing. YZ: Investigation, validation. FL, FX: Project administration, supervision, validation. YL: Project administration, resources, supervision, validation. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yan Li.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ma, J., Lei, K., Li, Y. et al. Spatiotemporal simulation, early warning, and driving factors of soil heavy metal pollution in a typical industrial city in southeast China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 38, 315–337 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02581-3

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02581-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation